2020 Democratic presidential primary

I still think Warren qnd Sanders both clinging on as long as possible is a likely scenario, which means Biden will probably win.

ugh don’t say that!

The Bernie people I know are split (kind of) - half basically think she's a perfectly acceptable second choice in the primary, half are mad at the "capitalist to my bones."

I think the "ewww Warren" people are going to be crushed by how Bernie actually acts as President in the event of his election, it's hard to fathom either successfully bucking the 243-year long trend in American foreign policy (but Bernie absolutely more likely to do so).

last time around bernie gave off the impression of not really giving a fuck about foreign policy - has that changed?

Bernie has made eye-rolling (to my eyes) comments on using drones and carrying on in the American Century tradition fwiw. (also we didn't start venturing abroad til much later than 1776.)

crut, do you think being pissed at Warren giving a standing O to Trump for his red-meat "never a socialist country" line is stupid as fuck?

That Trump line was stupid because no one, including Bernie, is advocating turning America into a socialist country. But I don't think it's wrong to applaud per se.

I thought the line was obv targeting Bernie/AOC and their proposals with the reference to "new calls for socialism in America", not the Socialist Workers' Party, so I did think it was bad for progressive Dems to applaud it so eagerly. Not saying that disqualifies Warren for President.

Besides, EW is pushing co-determination iirc?

"I gave Trump a standing ovation because I prefer reformist social democracy to full-scale collectivization of the means of production" would be an interesting explanation for someone to give, though.

Tracer, I think FP has become a much larger focus for Sanders. He has been active in sponsoring the resolution calling for an end to US support for Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen and is probably the most prominent voice calling for a less unilaterally interventionist role for the US, favouring greater participation in intl decision-making organizations.

I would say the only Democrats I know with concerns about Warren are women who think voters are too sexist to elect a woman even if she's great.

this is my wife's position tbh

I suspect the vast majority of Sanders supporters don't want the government to take possession of their local coffee shop, and actually just support the Nordic model, just as Warren does.

I think alot of casual support of 'socialism' is due to the democratic party's brand being dog shit and nobody wanting to identify with a bunch of soft losers.

I am friends with a lot of different kinds of Democrats and it feels like Warren is the unique candidate who almost no one is not OK with, if that makes sense

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Thursday, August 15, 2019 10:19 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Yeah, recent YouGov/Economist polls have been asking Democratic primary voters: "Are there any presidential candidates that you would be disappointed if they became the Democratic nominee?" In the last one, Warren was the only candidate in single digits -- i.e., only 9% of primary voters would be disappointed if she ended up the candidate. (For context: Biden 22%, Sanders 20%, Harris 14%. Highest was De Blasio at 30% lol.)

https://i.imgur.com/PzqHlny.png

Bernie's negatives almost as high as Biden's

he's got a ceiling and he ain't gonna crack it, but he also isn't going to withdraw which is so urrrgh

Good for Inslee

I can imagine Bernie withdrawing at the end of March but he'd probably still get a whole lot of votes is the thing

Idk why it seems so unlikely that he would drop out if he were in third place and it would mean Warren would beat Biden. I don't think his staying in a race after he became literally the only competitor to Hillary Clinton is a comparable situation at all.

after the last month's moves in the polls (biden stays roughly the same at ~30%, warren gains 10% or so, mostly at Bernies' expense), i'm wondering if warren/sanders will make more of a direct attack on Biden in the next debates.

speaking of - there are two fucking nights for the debates again? i don't know why i thought the rest would be a single night only.

I don't think it's been established yet. If there are only 12 or 13 candidates, as seems likely, I don't know why they wouldn't keep it to a single night.

Bernie did a great job on Joe Rogan, 9 million views and overwhelmingly positive reactions/comments

If Bernie is just getting crushed, he'd probably drop out, but it's easy to imagine a scenario where he does better in some states and Warren does better in others, and supporters for both pressure their candidates to stay in.

How interested are you in the next pres election?

- Now: Extremely (57) Very (24) Somewhat (16) Not at all ( 3)

- Nov. '16: Extremely (53) Very (28) Somewhat (13) Not at all (6)

- Aug. '15, same point as now in last cycle: Extremely (30) Very (30) Somewhat (29) Not at all (11)

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) August 16, 2019

intensity for the 2020 election is higher now than it was on election day 2016. I *think* this is a good sign for Dems

i know the source is FOX News but for some reason they actually have pretty accurate polls

Bernie's negatives almost as high as Biden's

hardcore Clintonites never gonna forgive his interference with their unanimity fantasy

the circular firing squad is over there

There are like 500 Clinton voters who remember and care about the 2016 primaries.

this persistent fantasy of a cabal of "hardcore Clintonites" running the GOP is hilarious - who are these people? Schumer? Pelosi? Perez? Ellison? I would maybe give you Schumer but the others? nah.

lol running the Democratic Party

I meant to say

intensity for the 2020 election is higher now than it was on election day 2016. I *think* this is a good sign for Dems

― frogbs, Friday, August 16, 2019 1:35 PM (forty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

it’s the exact same?

hey Shakey, i was talking about a poll of "voters" above. Who said anything about who was "running" anything?

Can you read? Do you?

wasn't referring to you specifically, but more to general refs to "Dem leadership" in this thread

There are like 500 Clinton voters who remember and care about the 2016 primaries.

I don't know about that. I work in an office with a bunch of middle aged Democratic women and all of them don't like Bernie.

not everybody loves a shouty grandpa

^^ this, but feel free to ascribe it to shadowy clinton allegiances if that's your thing

not everybody loves a shouty grandpa

― Οὖτις, Friday, August 16, 2019

where is the thread where we nominate new borad descriptions?

Right but they don’t have in mind Bernie’s supposed infractions on may 2016 xxp

there is a general feeling that he "hurt" Clinton in 2016

I think he did and frankly it wasn't worth it

He definitely did. Whether or not it was worth it to change the conversation (which he also definitely did) up for debate. Those harmed most and most directly by the current administration might have some thoughts on eggs and omelettes.

I’m saying that feeling that he hurt Clinton may seem general but is not held by a large absolute number of people and doesn’t explain his high unfavourables in polling.

I’m also saying: the discussion of the merits of that view is one of the worst things we do on this website.

yeah I feel stupid for wading into it already

eh it’s worth putting to bed

Maybe write about it in the new republic?

nah, just keep drinking every time he says CORPORATIONS or WALL STREET

Unfortunately, some people's fever dreams are perpetually haunted by the Clinton's, so we come back to this again and again.

shouty = being an old Jew from Brooklyn

w/out Clintons and Bushes, the US would be a candyland paradise