2020 Democratic presidential primary

that is a terrible jacket

gah just run for Senate, dude

Is 'the source of the problem' donors and volunteers who would like to see a return on their investment in your presidential campaign? If so, I think you're doing a fine job fighting that scourge, Beto.

This is like his third reboot.

Rebooto O'veragain

Well. Caveats etc.

Elizabeth Warren’s early investment in Iowa is paying off.

A new Iowa Starting Line-Change Research poll shows the senator opening up a commanding lead in the Iowa Caucus. Warren was the top pick of 28% of likely Iowa Caucus-goers in the poll, an 11-point lead over the nearest competitor. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were both tied for second with 17% each. Pete Buttigieg came in fourth at 13% and Kamala Harris has the backing of 8%.

Both Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke garnered 3% of caucus-goers’ support, while Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer got on the board at 2%. Julian Castro, Michael Bennet and Andrew Yang rounded out the field at 1%, while everyone else had less than that.

fuck yeah

I feel like Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina could all go to different candidates.

system badly needs regional multistate primaries, 5 max

Morbs I think it's kind of approaching that in practice, now that fully half the primaries are done by the end of March. The early states are loathe to give up their outsize influence and maybe they never will but I think the late ones will keep gradually piling in to March.

http://www.grubstreet.com/2019/08/pastry-chef-defends-elizabeth-warrrens-strawberry-shortcake.html

been a while since we even bothered having any *-gates

we are a frivolous nation and we deserve to burn

finally an interpretation of the end of GoThrones that makes sense

stoller, but lol nevertheless

“A senior New York official told me this week that the local chatter is that Gov. Andrew Cuomo is well-positioned to be Joe Biden’s chief of staff.” From @BuzzFeedBen’s newsletter

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) August 15, 2019

RIP President Hickleblooper

2016: people who disliked hrc and trump went for trump

2020: "Voters who have a negative view of both Biden and Trump back Biden by a 43-10 percent margin in the head-to-head matchup"

That's very bad for trump.https://t.co/Sr0Ltp9UiO

— The Bearded Crank (@beardedcrank) August 15, 2019

Feels like an incumbent who can’t break 40% against any top challenger is in trouble, but we don’t know how many of these voters were polled in rust belt diners. pic.twitter.com/frKnLP3PFo

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) August 15, 2019

I am friends with a lot of different kinds of Democrats and it feels like Warren is the unique candidate who almost no one is not OK with, if that makes sense

I would say the only Democrats I know with concerns about Warren are women who think voters are too sexist to elect a woman even if she's great.

And the only people I know who see Warren as particularly left-wing are Republicans. The Democrats I know (even those who are not comfortable with Sanders) see her as... a Democrat, basically.

And, actually, so do I.

At this point I'd be happy with a "Democrat."

I thought the Bernie camp hated her because she's not anti-capitalist.

yeah i know a bunch of young sanders supporters to whom "capitalist to my bones" is a mortal sin. which i think is stupid as fuck but what can you do

I still think Warren qnd Sanders both clinging on as long as possible is a likely scenario, which means Biden will probably win.

ugh don’t say that!

The Bernie people I know are split (kind of) - half basically think she's a perfectly acceptable second choice in the primary, half are mad at the "capitalist to my bones."

I think the "ewww Warren" people are going to be crushed by how Bernie actually acts as President in the event of his election, it's hard to fathom either successfully bucking the 243-year long trend in American foreign policy (but Bernie absolutely more likely to do so).

last time around bernie gave off the impression of not really giving a fuck about foreign policy - has that changed?

Bernie has made eye-rolling (to my eyes) comments on using drones and carrying on in the American Century tradition fwiw. (also we didn't start venturing abroad til much later than 1776.)

crut, do you think being pissed at Warren giving a standing O to Trump for his red-meat "never a socialist country" line is stupid as fuck?

That Trump line was stupid because no one, including Bernie, is advocating turning America into a socialist country. But I don't think it's wrong to applaud per se.

I thought the line was obv targeting Bernie/AOC and their proposals with the reference to "new calls for socialism in America", not the Socialist Workers' Party, so I did think it was bad for progressive Dems to applaud it so eagerly. Not saying that disqualifies Warren for President.

Besides, EW is pushing co-determination iirc?

"I gave Trump a standing ovation because I prefer reformist social democracy to full-scale collectivization of the means of production" would be an interesting explanation for someone to give, though.

Tracer, I think FP has become a much larger focus for Sanders. He has been active in sponsoring the resolution calling for an end to US support for Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen and is probably the most prominent voice calling for a less unilaterally interventionist role for the US, favouring greater participation in intl decision-making organizations.

I would say the only Democrats I know with concerns about Warren are women who think voters are too sexist to elect a woman even if she's great.

this is my wife's position tbh

I suspect the vast majority of Sanders supporters don't want the government to take possession of their local coffee shop, and actually just support the Nordic model, just as Warren does.

I think alot of casual support of 'socialism' is due to the democratic party's brand being dog shit and nobody wanting to identify with a bunch of soft losers.

I am friends with a lot of different kinds of Democrats and it feels like Warren is the unique candidate who almost no one is not OK with, if that makes sense

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Thursday, August 15, 2019 10:19 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Yeah, recent YouGov/Economist polls have been asking Democratic primary voters: "Are there any presidential candidates that you would be disappointed if they became the Democratic nominee?" In the last one, Warren was the only candidate in single digits -- i.e., only 9% of primary voters would be disappointed if she ended up the candidate. (For context: Biden 22%, Sanders 20%, Harris 14%. Highest was De Blasio at 30% lol.)

https://i.imgur.com/PzqHlny.png

Bernie's negatives almost as high as Biden's

he's got a ceiling and he ain't gonna crack it, but he also isn't going to withdraw which is so urrrgh

Good for Inslee

I can imagine Bernie withdrawing at the end of March but he'd probably still get a whole lot of votes is the thing

Idk why it seems so unlikely that he would drop out if he were in third place and it would mean Warren would beat Biden. I don't think his staying in a race after he became literally the only competitor to Hillary Clinton is a comparable situation at all.

after the last month's moves in the polls (biden stays roughly the same at ~30%, warren gains 10% or so, mostly at Bernies' expense), i'm wondering if warren/sanders will make more of a direct attack on Biden in the next debates.

speaking of - there are two fucking nights for the debates again? i don't know why i thought the rest would be a single night only.

I don't think it's been established yet. If there are only 12 or 13 candidates, as seems likely, I don't know why they wouldn't keep it to a single night.

Bernie did a great job on Joe Rogan, 9 million views and overwhelmingly positive reactions/comments

If Bernie is just getting crushed, he'd probably drop out, but it's easy to imagine a scenario where he does better in some states and Warren does better in others, and supporters for both pressure their candidates to stay in.

How interested are you in the next pres election?

- Now: Extremely (57) Very (24) Somewhat (16) Not at all ( 3)

- Nov. '16: Extremely (53) Very (28) Somewhat (13) Not at all (6)

- Aug. '15, same point as now in last cycle: Extremely (30) Very (30) Somewhat (29) Not at all (11)

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) August 16, 2019

intensity for the 2020 election is higher now than it was on election day 2016. I *think* this is a good sign for Dems

i know the source is FOX News but for some reason they actually have pretty accurate polls