Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

how much of a reach do you think any of these papers have?

my extremely gut-feeling answer is "more than you might think, especially among the over-55s"

Ha, I just reviewed the thread and found zero links to any local Postmedia paper and one Postmedia link period (to the NP). Definitely different from the days when the whole family read the Citizen every day.

Best Prime Minister:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pm-trudeau-sought-to-influence-wilson-raybould-in-many-ways-ethics-czar-1.4549332

Definitely feels more and more probable that we are heading for a conservative government this fall. I'm hoping that they at least don't get a majority.

Fuck everything about this.

yeah, we're screwed

Fucking awesome: Legault in Quebec, Ford in Ontario, Kenney in Alberta, etc., and Scheer for the whole country.

and we'll still be thinking we're better than america

Not a high bar tbf.

What are the Grits' chances if Trudeau resigns, someone else (Freeland?) takes over?

Also, how depressing is it to be hoping for a federal Liberal government to survive after a corruption scandal? There just seems to be zero hope for a leftist alternative at this point.

uh, i think the only way you can think up such a thing happening would be some accelarationist fantasizing. tories get in and the economy finally goes tits up and jagmeet storms in and leads us to glorious social democracy? so far-fetched i can't even imagine it

:(

i'm starting to fear that Jagmeet will never become PM

SNC is very bad and corrupt imo but I don't think Lib voters care. And there's a definite ceiling on Scheer's support. My gut feeling is still that we are stuck with Justin, probably forever.

I half-wondered whether there's a way this might actually help him in Quebec, to be seen to have fought so hard to save a homegrown giant and all those jobs.

The accelerationist in me hopes for a poor NDP showing so they can finally get a decent leader for a change

l'etat, c'est SNC Lavalin

I feel pretty confident that the NDP will be getting a new leader after 2019, possibly barring Jagmeet becoming the junior partner in a minority coalition. But do they have any decent possibilities? I liked Nathan Cullen, vaguely, but he just retired...

Ashton?

She'd be my pick obv

I half-wondered whether there's a way this might actually help him in Quebec, to be seen to have fought so hard to save a homegrown giant and all those jobs.

That's already the way it's being spun here and I think there's a decent chance it might work. It doesn't seem like people here like Scheer or Singh much so might just end up voting Liberal by default. Unless they decide to go back to voting Bloc? It's not a very predictable electorate

What about Mad Max? Is he still in the race?

Unless they decide to go back to voting Bloc?

This would probably guarantee a Tory government if it happened.

What about Mad Max? Is he still in the race?

I think he has a shot of winning his own seat (which would mean, per current rules, that he would be at the debate for the election following this one)

This would probably guarantee a Tory government if it happened.

Agreed. I hope it doesn't happen.

The Liberal position on the whole SNC Lavalin thing is basically the same one as the provincial government here (i.e. even though they are corrupt, it is important that they be allowed to continue to do business with the government because of jobs) so possibly this will have no effect on Liberals vote turnout at all in Quebec.

Lol, just checked what the editorial board of Le Devoir had to say and yep, they're just throwing these questions out there: https://www.ledevoir.com/opinion/editoriaux/560653/affaire-snc-lavalin-dans-quel-interet

Haha, seems about right. Le Devoir gonna (do its) devoir.

Hottest take of the year goes to: https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/joe-oliver-heres-a-truth-few-dare-to-utter-canada-will-benefit-from-climate-change?fbclid=IwAR25zQwxGqUkM7ahFc74sqARbgqf3UrGVCsDwQSZSymwlLqPiwd38dmQ0II#comments-area

extreme weather bad, climate change good

Insofar as conservatism is just tribalism, that sweltering take is probably more widespread than we think.

Oh, I used to participate in a Canadian politics forum with plenty of small- and large-C conservatives on it and you definitely came across this viewpoint. A former cabinet minister writing this in a major newspaper is ... something, though.

The cynicism is just breathtaking. Fuck that article.

I kept waiting for him to baldly suggest that we accelerate the process.

Naturally, no mention that Canada has among the highest per capita emissions.

Ah, there he is:

https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/560699/les-candidats-de-maxime-bernier-et-l-avortement

Because curbing late-term abortions should be our top priority.

Tbh, I had no idea he was running candidates outside of Quebec.

Non-paywalled site for a Toronto Star story about more brilliant work by Ford's govt: https://www.niagarafallsreview.ca/news-story/9553856-ford-government-s-streamlining-delays-funding-for-agencies-that-help-the-disabled/ . Seriously worried about what's going on here; we have a very good support system in the province now.

This seems really confused. An identical message can be legal for a non-third-party-registered charity in one election and not in another, depending on what the worst party happens to be advocating?

Because of that, Elections Canada is warning that any third party that promotes information about carbon dioxide as a pollutant or climate change as an emergency could be considered to be indirectly advocating against Mr. Bernier and his party. Activities can be considered partisan by Elections Canada even if they don’t mention a candidate or party by name, the agency’s rules say.

An Elections Canada spokesman confirmed “such a recommendation would be something we would give.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-environment-groups-warned-saying-climate-is-real-could-be-seen-as/

Wtf? Can we block every bank from advertising since they probably oppose the stance of the Communist Party? Oil industry ads might be indirectly opposing the Green Party?

Oh, I guess it only affects charity tax status. Still weird. That is not a partisan message.

Exactly. This is a case of the very 'feels over reals' that the right routinely ascribes to its opponents.

I guess it only affects charity tax status

although maybe those corporations should still have to register as third parties

What about the anti-carbon tax stickers that Ford is mandating at gas stations?

Interprovincial drama: https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php?action=auth&host=montrealgazette.com&id=72587893&back=https%3A%2F%2Fmontrealgazette.com%2Fnews%2Fquebec%2Fequalization-is-part-of-the-original-deal-and-quebec-will-fight-to-keep-it-says-premier-legault&h=

Kenney's stance, tying support for equalization payments to the building of pipelines, seems ridiculous and tbh troll-y, while Legault seems to want to rewrite constitutional history, although I do think he's right to want to retain the equalization system.

Nantel might... have a point?: https://r-login.wordpress.com/remote-login.php?action=auth&host=ottawacitizen.com&id=66829272&back=https%3A%2F%2Fottawacitizen.com%2Fnews%2Flocal-news%2Fousted-from-the-ndp-longueuil-mp-nantel-to-run-for-the-green-party%2Fwcm%2F25c664d7-9e23-4203-835f-793fe31ecc27%3Futm_term%3DAutofeed%26utm_medium%3DSocial%26utm_source%3DTwitter&h=%23Echobox%3D1566259754

It's a sad day when one has to choose between Legault and Kenney (la peste et le choléra).

https://pagesix.com/2019/08/29/kevin-oleary-wife-should-do-the-time-if-guilty-in-boat-crash-says-brother-of-man-killed/

hey remember when this guy was on a short list of potential Conservative party leaders

Hm, interesting to see what happens with that.

This is a bizarre policy that seems to serve no real purpose other than to justify cuts to teaching hires: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-teachers-score-70-per-cent-math-test-1.5261201

I could see the point if this test was being given only to teachers who are, you know, going to teach math, and if elementary school and high school teachers were tested differently, but why require every teacher to write this test? Do the Fords have shares in Kaplan or something?

Equalization is great but one thing I never understood is why Newfoundland & Labrador is considered a ‘have’ province and yet are always on the verge of bankruptcy. If anything it’s them not Alberta that is getting a raw deal.

To take a stab at it, according to this article at the Library of Parliament, the equalization formula is based on the following:

On a per capita basis, Equalization assesses a province’s ability to generate own-source revenues and compares that fiscal capacity to the average fiscal capacity for all provinces. With the exception of user fees (fees for the use of public services), all provincial government revenue sources are allocated to one of five categories: personal income taxes, business income taxes, consumption taxes, property taxes and natural resource revenues.

Save for natural resource revenues, the Equalization formula estimates fiscal capacity in each of the four remaining revenue categories by determining the amount of per capita revenue that each province could generate if all provinces had identical tax rates. Because of the wide range of natural resources and royalty structures across the provinces, actual resource revenues are used to measure fiscal capacity instead of creating a national average tax rate.

Newfoundland has had a huge boom in natural resource revenues over the last 10 years. Their tax rates don't appear exceptionally low but I believe that their governments have spent a lot over this same period, running deficits, and they have a lot of accumulated debt - two things that the equalization formula does not make accommodations for. They also suffer when oil prices drop.