2020 Democratic presidential primary

it's worth mentioning that obama, despite being well-known inside political circles, was still a relative unknown to most of the country in 2008

― Karl Malone, Tuesday, August 6, 2019 2:21 PM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

right, but he was also one of the more singularly charismatic political orators of the past half-century, which helps. people started talking about him as the first "celebrity president" before he even won the primary (people forgot about reagan, but people's memories are short)

give me that sweet trend data

https://i.imgur.com/ekJsInY.jpg

booker deserves better. he has performed well in the debates so far, and has proposed and defended more progressive legislation than most of his <2% competitors

also, harris has dropped from 20 to 7% in a month

usual caveat: single polls are useless, national polls of primaries are useless.

warren the only one there with anything like a consistent trend afaict.

harris's bounce almost entirely gone. i'd be happier with her as the nominee than biden, but i saw someone (nate silver?) say she was this year's rubio and that felt about right tbh.

If Harris is Rubio what does that make Shakey

warren dominates the field on "who has the best policy ideas" (Q4). but her problem is that she and everyone else apparently believes that biden has the best chance to defeat trump (Q5)

good lord people in this country are fucking stupid

but her problem is that she and everyone else apparently believes that biden has the best chance to defeat trump (Q5)

in classic fashion, i have written a typo-infused dumb sentence while simultaneously criticizing others for being dumb

"who can win" questions are very self-fulfilling/circular. i'd expect whoever is up against biden later in the year to see their numbers on that q go up a lot.

Biden commands the most support from black voters fyi

tell me more about Smone Else, i am intrigued

she sounds hot

https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fcinema.com%2Fimage_lib%2F6638_heading.jpg&f=1

will obama come out and endorse biden in the primaries? I think he won't.

he will not

No chance.

There's no way Obama endorses any primary candidate. But he'll campaign like hell for the nominee.

is there a poll on who Warren/Sanders voters would pick as a 2nd choice? I'm assuming they'd pick each other and not Biden, which could potentially make things interesting

the problem is neither Sanders nor Warren will drop out

Everyone is qualified for every political job. You have aides and bureaucrats to deal with the paperwork.

i don't know about that, look who is in the white house right now

in some ways, trump is the culmination of a long trend in conservative politics. removing him from office won't fix everything. he's more like a bellwether of something awful.

however, in other ways, like ignoring all aides and bureaucrats and just doing whatever he thinks will benefit him personally, he is uniquely awful

i've mentioned it before, but my big fear, or one of them, is that in 2028 (or whatever) we will be facing a celebrity republican candidate who has the reactionary politics of trump but is not the dumbest fucking person in the history of the universe. that person may be pretty much impossible to defeat

that person is the Rock

is there a poll on who Warren/Sanders voters would pick as a 2nd choice? I'm assuming they'd pick each other and not Biden, which could potentially make things interesting

― frogbs, 6. august 2019 23:04 (nineteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I haven't seen one in a while, but there used to be surprisingly little overlap. Sanders-voters mostly went with Biden, while Warren voters went with Harris or even Buttigieg, iirc.

xp

exactly

compare how you feel about the Rock's election chances in 2028 to how we all felt about Trump in June 2015

TBF The Rock is not a racist psychopath,

he'll have to overcome that in order to win the republican nomination, but i've seen him do wonders on the big screen, don't count him out

I think we all know from our deep-reading of the Rock's autobiography that while not a racist he is probably a psychopath

Almost every elected president has been tbh

Inslee adds a second plank to his campaign platorm:

https://www.jayinslee.com/issues/combatting-white-nationalism

Jon Voight will probably be dead by 2028

Besides, someone in the field would just pass off the blowjob scene from Midnight Cowboy as real and he'd be out after Iowa.

Robert Downey Jr. is a Republican, though, and Marvel nerds would probably unite behind him.

RDJ is too smart to want to be President imo

of course he's allegedly [redacted]

wait what? No proof RDJ is a GOP except for a few comments he made a decade ago. He and ScarJo made a pro-Clinton thing in 2016.

Ugh, based on that poll, Sanders and Warren combined have 35% support compared to 32% for Biden, a difference that is within the margin of error for most polls.

For a moment, I wondered how Richard D. James could compete to be POTUS.

“Come to Daddy” is essentially Trump’s 2020 strategy anyhow.

Downey is wayyyyy too short to win in the celebrity deathmatch election scenario under discussion.

I predict that either Warren or Sanders will drop out at some point

challopsy I know

warren and sanders need to campaign in florida

The idea that Sanders voters’ Plan B is more often Biden than Warren (as Fred B posted upthread), and that Warren’s folks would go to Buttigieg or Harris rather than Sanders makes no sense to me at all. Then again I’m a bit thick.

The stats here do show Sanders as the top second choice (slightly over Harris) for Warren leaners with Biden over Warren 31-26 as the second choice of Sanders supporters. Interestingly, Sanders also seems like the top second choice for Biden supporters.

None of that means it will stay that way by the time the primaries roll around obv.

Interestingly, Sanders also seems like the top second choice for Biden supporters.

name recognition imo

this election is going to be brutal

22 people in my hometown are dead after an act of terror inspired by your racism. El Paso will not be quiet and neither will I. https://t.co/dakFPKj0vJ

— Beto O'Rourke (@BetoORourke) August 7, 2019

these #beto freaks on twitter are really weird

The idea that Sanders voters’ Plan B is more often Biden than Warren (as Fred B posted upthread), and that Warren’s folks would go to Buttigieg or Harris rather than Sanders makes no sense to me at all. Then again I’m a bit thick.

― never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous),

A London based colleague told me that centrist Labour MP Jess Phillips is 'The UK's AOC', because 'ballsy', 'mouthy', 'says what she means'