2020 Democratic presidential primary

Gabbard is the favored candidate of Russian trolls.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-mass-shootings-in-el-paso-and-dayton-should-spur-democrats-to-propose-big-ideas-on-gun-violence

The stupefying regularity of these mass killings can inspire a sense of futility, even as the evidence suggests that the political prospects for gun control are shifting. In 2018, state legislatures passed sixty-nine gun-control measures, three times as many as were passed in 2017, according to a tally by the Times, using data compiled by the Gifford Law Center. Remarkably, gun-control groups outspent the N.R.A. during the midterm elections. The once fearsome group is mired in infighting and financial turmoil. The Democratic candidates seeking their party’s Presidential nomination have been vocally proclaiming their support for measures such as universal background checks, the assault-weapons ban, and federal funding for research on gun violence.

Yet in a Democratic race that has been animated by energy from the left and vigorous debates about sweeping policies such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, the dearth of truly bold ideas and robust discussion on guns is striking. Last month, the lone Democratic candidate who supported a mandatory gun-buyback program, Representative Eric Swalwell, dropped out of the race. Swalwell tried to make gun control a signature issue of his campaign. The California congressman proposed reinstating the federal assault-weapons ban, buying back all existing assault weapons—he estimated that there might be fifteen million in circulation––and prosecuting anyone who resisted. Swalwell put the cost at about fifteen billion dollars. “What is it worth to American taxpayers to not see our families, friends and neighbors cut down in a hail of gunfire?” Swalwell wrote in an op-ed, in USA Today. “Consider this an investment in averting carnage and heartache and loss.”

The most ambitious proposal that has some currency in the Democratic field calls for the establishment of a federal gun-licensing system. Several candidates––most prominently, Senator Cory Booker––support this deceptively simple idea: that buying a gun should be more like driving a car. Anyone interested in purchasing a firearm would be required to obtain a license first. (Currently, under federal law, gun buyers must pass only a background check.) In May, Booker detailed his proposal as part of a broader gun-violence-prevention plan. Under Booker’s plan, gun purchasers would have to make an appointment at a designated local office, answer basic background questions there, submit fingerprints, and provide proof of completion of a certified gun-safety course. The concept is bolstered by research: one study suggested that a permit-to-purchase law for handguns, enacted in Connecticut in 1995, resulted in forty per cent fewer firearm homicides; conversely, another study found that the repeal of a permit-to-purchase law in Missouri, in 2007, led to an abrupt increase in gun-related homicides.

There are other solutions that could be debated: a far more onerous licensing plan; banning all semi-automatic weapons; expanding the federal criteria that bar gun purchases to include violent misdemeanors; making it easier to disqualify someone for mental-health reasons. The obvious critique to far-reaching gun-control proposals is the same one that moderates have unsuccessfully tried to use against Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders: that their plans have no chance of becoming reality. But Sanders’s Medicare for All advocacy during his 2016 campaign is instructive. As my colleague Osita Nwanevu has written, it has thoroughly altered the terms of the health-care debate in the Democratic Party. Sometimes an unrealistic-seeming idea simply needs an ardent champion, someone willing to set political pragmatism aside. Often, that is how norms shift.

Warren herself clearly understands this. When John Delaney, a former congressman from Maryland, accused her of making “impossible promises” and engaging in “fairy-tale economics,” during the Democratic debate in Detroit last week, Warren responded with one of the most stirring lines of the evening: “I don’t understand why anyone goes to all the trouble of running for President of the United States to tell us what we can’t do and shouldn’t fight for.” The right to go to Walmart, or to a food festival, or to church, or to a synagogue, or to school, without fear of being shot, is eminently worth fighting for.

at this point it's gotta be a given that anyone who gets within shouting distance of doing anything serious about guns will require secret service protection 24/7. i'd be scared to work on that person's staff. I'd be scared to be married to them.

Gotta give Beto props for this

Beto O’Rourke on his way to his car was asked if there’s anything Trump can do now to make this better.

“What do you think? You know the shit he’s been saying. He’s been calling Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals. I don’t know, like, members of the press, what the fuck?” pic.twitter.com/zjLYf4mzBr

— Eric Bradner (@ericbradner) August 5, 2019

church youth minister beto turned disillusioned grad student beto is a good turn

"what the fuck?!" and "Fuck this country" are the only conceivable responses

Beto needs to drop out immediately and declare for Cornyn's seat.

^^^

Everyone otm

relatedly

NEWS: @RepKenMarchant to retire tomorrow, per two Republicans. He’ll be the fourth Texas Repub in recent weeks to call it quits.

And Marchant’s DFW-area district is highly competitive. After winning it by double digits, he only carried it by three last year.

— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) August 5, 2019

I keep coming back to the 2018-based measures of Trump's approval rating among Texas voters--right around 50%, including in the exits
To me, it implies Trump was well underwater in TX24--say, minus-4 or worse--where Kenny Marchant (R) is poised to retire https://t.co/vITO72uG9a pic.twitter.com/MFCzLfNomB

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 5, 2019

And it also, obviously, implies that the GOP's broader concerns about Texas are pretty well-warranted. By our estimates, Trump was underwater *statewide* in Texas among either RVs or in a presidential electorate
The GOP sirens are going off for a reason

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 5, 2019

statewide is different and maybe he wouldn't stand a chance, but it's *insane* how much more good he'd do for every congressional race and the statehouse as a viable candidate at the top of the statewide ticket.

someone from the DNC should knock on Beto's door with a suitcase full of money and tell him to run for Senate

I didn’t get video, but here’s audio of the question and Beto O’Rourke’s answer. This came after an emotional vigil in El Paso, as O’Rourke circled behind a building looking for his wife. pic.twitter.com/VBk8xoE1lz

— Eric Bradner (@ericbradner) August 5, 2019

Beto's been on point all day.

http://youtu.be/Jjo-cnE1Pz4

^"Too Many Jebs". 1 minute of campaign promos of centrist middleaged white male candidates, cut to the "Too Many Cooks" theme. I'll have to learn how to embed YT videos all over...

I lol'd

Forgot Steyer was even running.

Interesting: @BetoORourke tells @jonfavs he’s open to an Australia-style mandatory buyback program for guns.

That makes him the most prominent Democratic presidential candidate favoring that idea. pic.twitter.com/Rb0xsSPlav

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) August 6, 2019

beto has leaped about 5 spots for me now

Were you a big Swalwell fan too

swallwell supported buying back only assault rifles, a cosmetic half-measure

I’m sure beto will walk this back soon so don’t worry about me, I’m still the same cynical asshole

so don’t worry about me, I’m still the same cynical asshole

New board description.

What are Jay Inslee’s flaws?

name recognition

his main flaw is that he won't be president

but perhaps he'll lead EPA or be appointed to another key environmental position

he would've been an ideal candidate in another era--a successful governor with a long record of tangible achievement, a white guy who comes off well on camera, and a guy with a signature issue that many americans care about. but you kinda need to be famous in order to win an election these days, and he just is not.

"another era" meaning a day when a relatively unknown person could swoop in and win the dem nomination, like say, jimmy carter or bill clinton

I'm starting to like Beto again too but god damnit dude needs to drop out and run for Senate, he's not gonna win the primary but he could do awesome things there

He's not qualified to be President and frankly probably not to be Senator either, but he would be miles better than Cornyn.

what is "qualified" to be a senator in 2019?

celebrity, money, or both

beto seems qualified

yeah why is Beto not qualified for the Senate?

"another era" meaning a day when a relatively unknown person could swoop in and win the dem nomination, like say, jimmy carter or bill clinton

― jakey mo collier (voodoo chili)

it's worth mentioning that obama, despite being well-known inside political circles, was still a relative unknown to most of the country in 2008

I think Clinton was thought of as a serious candidate in '88, but Clinton (on his own or on the advice of others) backed off because of, you know, lurking personal issues.

new quin poll looks pretty bad for anyone outside of the top 3

I should run for president imo

you are already president, imo

(xpost) Meaning Biden, Warren, and Harris or Sanders?

biden warren & sanders

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

it's worth mentioning that obama, despite being well-known inside political circles, was still a relative unknown to most of the country in 2008

― Karl Malone, Tuesday, August 6, 2019 2:21 PM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

right, but he was also one of the more singularly charismatic political orators of the past half-century, which helps. people started talking about him as the first "celebrity president" before he even won the primary (people forgot about reagan, but people's memories are short)

give me that sweet trend data

https://i.imgur.com/ekJsInY.jpg

booker deserves better. he has performed well in the debates so far, and has proposed and defended more progressive legislation than most of his <2% competitors

also, harris has dropped from 20 to 7% in a month

usual caveat: single polls are useless, national polls of primaries are useless.

warren the only one there with anything like a consistent trend afaict.

harris's bounce almost entirely gone. i'd be happier with her as the nominee than biden, but i saw someone (nate silver?) say she was this year's rubio and that felt about right tbh.

If Harris is Rubio what does that make Shakey

warren dominates the field on "who has the best policy ideas" (Q4). but her problem is that she and everyone else apparently believes that biden has the best chance to defeat trump (Q5)

good lord people in this country are fucking stupid

but her problem is that she and everyone else apparently believes that biden has the best chance to defeat trump (Q5)

in classic fashion, i have written a typo-infused dumb sentence while simultaneously criticizing others for being dumb

"who can win" questions are very self-fulfilling/circular. i'd expect whoever is up against biden later in the year to see their numbers on that q go up a lot.

Biden commands the most support from black voters fyi