PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

Boris Bounce in full effect

Latest Westminster voting intention (25-26 July)
Con: 31% (+6 since 23/24 July)
Lab: 21% (+2)
Lib Dem: 20% (-3)
Brexit Party: 13% (-4)
Green: 8% (-1)https://t.co/Lb0DfZ8Pkz pic.twitter.com/iR5cMRUBfR

— YouGov (@YouGov) July 28, 2019

YouGov gotta keep YouGoving - below is their poll compared to the other 3, so averaging of all the 4 last polls reduces the "bounce" somewhat.

+2 (25%)
+2 (30%)
+5 (30%)
+10 (31%)

The bounce is probably real because a) even Gordon Brown had one and b) people who aren't particularly politically engaged think "let's give this guy a chance" but even then it's significantly lower than May's bounce was and look what happened there.

as someone commented, for a honeymoon period poll it's more of a bump.

First 4 polls of Theresa May Premiership:
+10 (39%)
+11 (40%)
+6 (37%)
+16 (43%)

this.

Hm, still can get 6/5 on there being an election this year.

Buy some money by doubling it with Liverpool to finish 2nd

An election is definitely in the plan but Johnson's entire strategy hinges on pretending that isn't the case.

One thing I would put money in is that the Conservative party's own internal polling doesn't feature the same bounce as the YouGov one.

I hope they're stupid enough to take the bounce seriously, the media no doubt will pretend it's important, while not actually believing it is.

Lol, remember the height of ChUKism after the cheeky nandos putsch, yeah that was a bounce as well I believe.

An election is definitely in the plan but Johnson's entire strategy hinges on pretending that isn't the case.

― Matt DC, Sunday, 28 July 2019 13:00 (fifteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I was wondering about this. As you say, it's clear an election is in the offing - cabinet, expansionary spending 'plans' (or rather words), highly public no deal stance. But I don't understand the mechanism by which he's intending to bring it about. is his intention to provoke Parliament into putting a VONC on it by credibly threatening no deal? I also don't really understand the preferred options on timing.

Three scenarios:
1. Parliament vonc us into a GE prior to Oct 31st: This does seem to be Johnson's favoured approach (no reasonable negotiating stance, forcing EU to say 'no point in negotiating', talking up No Deal to the media and noisily starting preparations for it). Will Parliament get it together to do this? They didn't earlier in the year and May had to bail them out, effectively.
2. Government calls snap election prior to Oct 31st: So then you've got this scenario. Johnson doesn't *want* to do this I think, but will have to if 1 doesn't come off - he has got recent form for betting on an outcome that didn't happen (tho got what he wanted in the longer term). He would have to say something like 'I'm afraid Parliament and the EU have left us no choice but to have a GE.'
3. GE after Oct 31st, vonc'd or not (not sure it would matter): Johnson could claim to have taken us out of the EU, but any immediate catastrophic effects would rebound hard.

Pretty sure 1 would be their preference but I'm not convinced it'll happen unless they really push for it and, if they do, there's the danger it'll be obvious that that's exactly what they've been planning all along - and I'm not sure that would go down too well. I think 3 is the most likely outcome and they will obviously be hoping there will be no immediate catastrophic effects, which I'm not certain there will be anyway.

Actually I think 1 or 3 would suit them well enough. 2 would be the height of stupidity.

tho i guess what you’re saying NV is that his later personality had the effect of revealing his early manner.

Pretty sure 1 would be their preference but I'm not convinced it'll happen unless they really push for it and, if they do, there's the danger it'll be obvious that that's exactly what they've been planning all along - and I'm not sure that would go down too well. I think 3 is the most likely outcome and they will obviously be hoping there will be no immediate catastrophic effects, which I'm not certain there will be anyway.

There will be a window of opportunity before things seriously fall apart and that's where they will call the election.

I hope things don't fall apart before the Northern Powerhouse funding is released. I want to live to see cables cars running directly from T'Leggers Bar to Dewsbury Rams stadium. High speed trams running between Chickenley and Dewsbury Moor. Getting to Manchester 20 mins quicker by bypassing ghastly shitholes like Hudds is going to be a gamechanger as well!

sorry not cable cars, boris cars.

Got sick of seeing footage of Boris announcing his plan to have painted cardboard boxes full of happy Northerners going directly from Manchester to Leeds and vice versa tbh.

fuck Manchester and Leeds anyway, full of shit football clubs, shit bands.. while we are at it fuck the scousers as well #HeavyWoollenDistrictPowerhouse

Boris Johnson is channelling a punk ethos to force through Brexit. It could work | John Harris

would rather die than give a single click to this clickbait.. but holy fuck!

sorry not cable cars, boris cars.

― calzino, Sunday, July 28, 2019 2:33 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Awwwwwww...

Fizzles, apologies for stating the obvious but isn't the whole issue here, eg in your post itself, that government since 2010 can no longer just 'call a snap election'?

in practice tho no opposition is going to abstain from a vote tho.

thotho

one of the numerous reasons it’s such a swizz.

presumably without the FTPA we may have brexited by now ie may could have made a vote in the WA a confidence issue

I suppose that a crucial factor is whether Boris believes that Blitz Spirit and a few side deals will see us all through a No Deal, or whether he thinks that the EU don't like it up 'em and some cold steely glares will send them running back to the negotiating table, surely they won't pick the side of Ireland over the glorious United Kingdom

(Or whether he's aware that there's nothing coming to save him and is running around trying to find a solution like a polar bear on a melting icecap)

whether Boris believes that Blitz Spirit and a few side deals will see us all through a No Deal

I think I am correct in recalling that the Blitz was not an event characterized by the British shooting themselves repeatedly in the foot.

it refers to people pulling together under duress. and retrospectively to a perceived pride and even enjoyment in doing so, and the belief it created a social cohesio that today we lack.

that is of course bollocks and by implication pretty racist. which is also a description of the country today.

My best friend’s dad was a major in the Army medical corps during the war and he would always tell us that the Blitz spirit was absolute bollocks, people were miserable and the royals got booed when they went walkabout in the East End.

there might have been a certain amount of creeping egalitarianism and class breakdown resulting from the evacuations though. But this is not the kind of a thing a hard right Conservative gov would encourage or want.

there is an entry in the Maissky Dairies were he is profoundly moved by a load w/c Londoner's breaking into a rendition of The Internationale in a tube station shelter. I'm sure Boris would love evoking that right now.

Just watched Dominic Raab being interviewed robotically saying, "If there's a no deal because the EU refuses to change its position...", every time the phrase No Deal was mentioned, so the approach is glaringly obvious. And there was the 'undemocratic backstop'.

Now @thesundaytimes apes @thesun by treating English and Irish audiences to totally different opinions about Boris Johnson. Good on you Boris, says UK (and Scots) ST. Bad boy Boris, says the Ireland ST. For an apparently serious newspaper, this forked tongue stuff is lamentable pic.twitter.com/vDw1pNtRTC

— Roy Greenslade (@GreensladeR) July 28, 2019

"Is Boris Johnson punk?" is a piece of analysis I will need a gallon or two of coffee to get through. I might not even bother.

strong drug is M-Cat.

UK (and Scots)? Tut tut, Roy.

Speaking of which, I hear our new PM is up in Scotland today pretending to care about the Union, I imagine they will keep as far away from Scottish people as possible - Scottish Tories don't count.

he's arriving with more unfunded bribes no doubt and all he'll get back is hopefully an egg landing on his ugly-arsed head.

UK and Scots is bad, it's true.

I am still surprised when I read serious people saying 'Ireland was once part of Britain', rather than part of the Union or the UK.

I recently read that United Kingdom was barely used in newspapers/language/government documents until the 60's I think it was. Perhaps the dying global empire concentrated minds on matters closer to home.

The Japanese might have brought vile cartoon porn to the world and committed many colonial atrocities. But at least they were never a demented enough island nation to declare themselves Great Japan.

Erm, test they did by putting a whacking great 大 in front of 日本 after the Meiji restoration

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empire_of_Japan

hah! vmic then.

Also if you want an island nation to give the uk a run for its money in the corrupt nationalist wackjobs in government stakes, japan is definitely the place to start looking.

Warning from history: monoculturalism is the first step on the road to Manga degeneracy!

I imagine they will keep as far away from Scottish people as possible - Scottish Tories don't count.

it's true, scottish tories aren't people

c'mon woke Ruth hasn't got a bad bone in her body!

i refer the honourable gentleman to my previous statement on the matter

she is an invertebrate though, so it figures.