PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

Since when is ‘fullstops’ a compound word? Floreat Etona, Jacob.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/243337?fbclid=IwAR2Flmh0wE_Z1N4RelPfWgiMJa8Rqson3hQgwXTwqDNttm-GQ11PPyblzQo

it probably won't make a shit of difference, but it might be worth signing this Jodey Whiting inquest petition. She commit suicide 15 days after her benefits were stopped because during a pneumonia spell in hospital a letter for a capability assessment was sent to her that she was never aware of. The petition is only being backed by Mind. Most the other toothless disability charities (including NAS calmly posting as they usually do) are congratulating the conservative government for apologising for her death and giving her mum 10 grand and are not backing an inquest into this repulsive travesty. Most of these charities proudly wear golden top-hats btw

thought this was an interesting thread

Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
1/ I've done this before but on a day like today it's worth remembering the striking difference in the way the EU and UK see the backstop. From the Brussels furnace, based on convos with officials/diplomats, the EU perspective (not advocating either way just reporting as ever).

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― bookmarkflaglink (jim in vancouver), Friday, 26 July 2019 16:23 (seven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

informative but I'm presuming that he felt that stating "safeguards the GFA" would have been redundant

Suzy is right -- 'full stop' should be written as two separate words.

"fools' stop" if it's followed by two spaces

when you are a posh tryhard grammar pedant it doesn't matter if you are wrong. Just like it doesn't matter that because of class deference you can merrily paint castles in the sky like how foodbanks are very positive + uplifing examples of state paternalism and Great Britain has always been 100% food self-sufficient because of our great farmers and genius advances in agriscience .. and nobody tells you to stfu and quit shit-talking or even interrupts you.

Foodbanks or food banks, what say you, Mr. Rees-Mogg?

Meanwhile Cummings apptly intends Brexit even if election is happening. No Deal was much too soft, let’s No Deal while we’re in purdah and don’t have a government

Am told by a senior No10 source, idea of an election before 31/10 for a ‘mandate’ was “eliminated” by Dominic Cummings in his first meeting this spads and key official last night

More...

1/3

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 27, 2019

I can't remember the option to have an unelected right wing dictatorship on the EU referendum ballot.

> idea of an election before 31/10 for a ‘mandate’ was “eliminated” by Dominic Cummings

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-calls-election-times-she-said-there-would-be-no-snap-election-a7688471.html

Xp "Leave the European Union"

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/3B97/production/_105055251_051413932-1.jpg

chatting with a friend last night whose job has brought him into contact with some of these malignant cretins:

Sajid Javid: “Really not very nice. Also left himself logged into his twitter account on my laptop”
Nick Timothy: “Horrible man. Literally no one liked him. Even not very nice people didn’t like him.”

Who'd have thought it?

Wow your friend wasted one hell of an opportunity with the Saj.

I was listening to AQ last night and noticed Geoffrey Cox has a completely ridiculous voice. If you were going to do a pisstake of a classic arrogant tory blowhard you'd do deep booming pompous foghorn like how he speaks. Like every line he speaks is a contemptuous admonishment to some pleb, which is probably how he sees most people tbf.

i know! he did recognise that. but we were more just incredulous at the complacent stupidity - i mean who doesn’t log themselves out of social media on even public computers let alone someone else’s, and as a politician?! come on.

xpost

What are 'spads'? CHECK your work!

Geoffrey Cox sounds like Valentine Dyall doing The Man in Black

lol, there is a bit of a gruffer Patrick Stewart in there as well.

One fact about G Cox: because he speaks so slowly, when he is then quoted on radio news he is given more airtime than others because his sentences take longer than other people's.

Scumbag.

His responses should just be speeded up, like they used to do with Sinn Fein.

turns out the JRM letter about calling people esq and not using metric was real...

Boris Bounce in full effect

Latest Westminster voting intention (25-26 July)
Con: 31% (+6 since 23/24 July)
Lab: 21% (+2)
Lib Dem: 20% (-3)
Brexit Party: 13% (-4)
Green: 8% (-1)https://t.co/Lb0DfZ8Pkz pic.twitter.com/iR5cMRUBfR

— YouGov (@YouGov) July 28, 2019

YouGov gotta keep YouGoving - below is their poll compared to the other 3, so averaging of all the 4 last polls reduces the "bounce" somewhat.

+2 (25%)
+2 (30%)
+5 (30%)
+10 (31%)

The bounce is probably real because a) even Gordon Brown had one and b) people who aren't particularly politically engaged think "let's give this guy a chance" but even then it's significantly lower than May's bounce was and look what happened there.

as someone commented, for a honeymoon period poll it's more of a bump.

First 4 polls of Theresa May Premiership:
+10 (39%)
+11 (40%)
+6 (37%)
+16 (43%)

this.

Hm, still can get 6/5 on there being an election this year.

Buy some money by doubling it with Liverpool to finish 2nd

An election is definitely in the plan but Johnson's entire strategy hinges on pretending that isn't the case.

One thing I would put money in is that the Conservative party's own internal polling doesn't feature the same bounce as the YouGov one.

I hope they're stupid enough to take the bounce seriously, the media no doubt will pretend it's important, while not actually believing it is.

Lol, remember the height of ChUKism after the cheeky nandos putsch, yeah that was a bounce as well I believe.

An election is definitely in the plan but Johnson's entire strategy hinges on pretending that isn't the case.

― Matt DC, Sunday, 28 July 2019 13:00 (fifteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I was wondering about this. As you say, it's clear an election is in the offing - cabinet, expansionary spending 'plans' (or rather words), highly public no deal stance. But I don't understand the mechanism by which he's intending to bring it about. is his intention to provoke Parliament into putting a VONC on it by credibly threatening no deal? I also don't really understand the preferred options on timing.

Three scenarios:
1. Parliament vonc us into a GE prior to Oct 31st: This does seem to be Johnson's favoured approach (no reasonable negotiating stance, forcing EU to say 'no point in negotiating', talking up No Deal to the media and noisily starting preparations for it). Will Parliament get it together to do this? They didn't earlier in the year and May had to bail them out, effectively.
2. Government calls snap election prior to Oct 31st: So then you've got this scenario. Johnson doesn't *want* to do this I think, but will have to if 1 doesn't come off - he has got recent form for betting on an outcome that didn't happen (tho got what he wanted in the longer term). He would have to say something like 'I'm afraid Parliament and the EU have left us no choice but to have a GE.'
3. GE after Oct 31st, vonc'd or not (not sure it would matter): Johnson could claim to have taken us out of the EU, but any immediate catastrophic effects would rebound hard.

Pretty sure 1 would be their preference but I'm not convinced it'll happen unless they really push for it and, if they do, there's the danger it'll be obvious that that's exactly what they've been planning all along - and I'm not sure that would go down too well. I think 3 is the most likely outcome and they will obviously be hoping there will be no immediate catastrophic effects, which I'm not certain there will be anyway.

Actually I think 1 or 3 would suit them well enough. 2 would be the height of stupidity.

tho i guess what you’re saying NV is that his later personality had the effect of revealing his early manner.

Pretty sure 1 would be their preference but I'm not convinced it'll happen unless they really push for it and, if they do, there's the danger it'll be obvious that that's exactly what they've been planning all along - and I'm not sure that would go down too well. I think 3 is the most likely outcome and they will obviously be hoping there will be no immediate catastrophic effects, which I'm not certain there will be anyway.

There will be a window of opportunity before things seriously fall apart and that's where they will call the election.

I hope things don't fall apart before the Northern Powerhouse funding is released. I want to live to see cables cars running directly from T'Leggers Bar to Dewsbury Rams stadium. High speed trams running between Chickenley and Dewsbury Moor. Getting to Manchester 20 mins quicker by bypassing ghastly shitholes like Hudds is going to be a gamechanger as well!

sorry not cable cars, boris cars.

Got sick of seeing footage of Boris announcing his plan to have painted cardboard boxes full of happy Northerners going directly from Manchester to Leeds and vice versa tbh.

fuck Manchester and Leeds anyway, full of shit football clubs, shit bands.. while we are at it fuck the scousers as well #HeavyWoollenDistrictPowerhouse

Boris Johnson is channelling a punk ethos to force through Brexit. It could work | John Harris

would rather die than give a single click to this clickbait.. but holy fuck!

sorry not cable cars, boris cars.

― calzino, Sunday, July 28, 2019 2:33 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Awwwwwww...

Fizzles, apologies for stating the obvious but isn't the whole issue here, eg in your post itself, that government since 2010 can no longer just 'call a snap election'?

in practice tho no opposition is going to abstain from a vote tho.

thotho

one of the numerous reasons it’s such a swizz.

presumably without the FTPA we may have brexited by now ie may could have made a vote in the WA a confidence issue

I suppose that a crucial factor is whether Boris believes that Blitz Spirit and a few side deals will see us all through a No Deal, or whether he thinks that the EU don't like it up 'em and some cold steely glares will send them running back to the negotiating table, surely they won't pick the side of Ireland over the glorious United Kingdom

(Or whether he's aware that there's nothing coming to save him and is running around trying to find a solution like a polar bear on a melting icecap)