Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

Even now these polls tell us very little about voting patterns at constituency level and the presence of the Brexit Party has created an unstable element that could tip constituencies into surprising results.

indeed

Yeah basically:

If, as polls consistently show, there are four parties on around a quarter of a vote, Electoral Calculus projections cannot tell you what outcome that would produce when plugged into our electoral system.

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) July 3, 2019

it is ONE poll in a time when there is a lot of froth and nonsense. regardless, LDs too evenly spread to convert many seats under FPTP; Never Tory voters will have more chances to back LAB than LDs; and, BXP, while evenly spread out too, are strong in tory constituencies. terrible poll for tories, particularly given how Hard Brexit the leadership contest has been. though concede MDC is probably right that many BXP voters will return to the fold in a GE

Sorry but people vote differently in a GE & the next one will undoubtedly be high stakes. It’s ok to vote Lib Dem in a Euro election when they don’t have a chance of running your country, but minor parties tend to get squeezed in uncertain elections & that’s what happened last time.

more than any polling which is often from samples of 1200-1600 people. I take more heart from the levels of shitting it on display recently.

1200-1600 is a pretty sound basis for polling though, provided it's not just "your mates' mates"

I’m sure the 12ft lizzards can time the death of Phillip for greatest political effect.

And any Tory government can milk that hoard old crust for everything it’s worth.

Does anyone seriously believe that the IMF are going to give the top job to George Osborne? I know he's pretty much the only candidate the bookies have heard of but even then why would they go for him over Carney?

would having the best coke dealing connections increase your chances of getting the job?

Friends of the erstwhile Tory politician, now editor of the Evening Standard, said Mr Osborne was giving the role “serious thought”.

The Irish Times reports that Mark Carney's the favourite!

Other potential candidates to succeed Ms Lagarde include Bank for International Settlements head Agustin Carstens; Monetary Authority of Singapore chairman minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam; Credit Suisse Group chief executive officer Tidjane Thiam and Mohamed El-Erian, the former chief executive of Pacific Investment Management and a Bloomberg ppinion columnist.

Lots of foreign names here, don't think their coke game would really stand up, they don't like it up 'em (sorry)

Saudi Arabia are apparently hosting the next G20 so Osborne at the IMF sure why not?

govt trying to rush through a bill putting back the date for a NI election by introducing it as emergency legislation to nix the move to introduce marriage equality. idk what the rules for emergency legislation are but it sounds like they suck and are being repeatedly exploited re: NI

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/uk-government-to-rush-through-northern-ireland-laws-in-bid-to-thwart-gay-marriage-bid-report-38280630.html

They are supposed to give more time to scrutinise legislation than this - this is total bullshit & I hope there’s outrage over this.

has anyone in the UK press cottoned on to the fact that the top brass in the SNP are now in open warfare about the gender recognition act ?

Quite a good thread on this week's attacks from various sections:

In a FPTP electoral system, demoralising your opponent's supporters is often more effective than energising your own. pic.twitter.com/JkxOQG2qrC

— David Timoney (@fromarsetoelbow) July 4, 2019

And I hate hate this position.

What’s so excruciating about the current Labour Brexit palaver is the party will inevitably back a People’s-Vote-with-Remain position, either at Conference, or in the manifesto process of an election. It just risks getting none of the political benefits when it does.

— Owen Jones🌹 (@OwenJones84) July 4, 2019

A lot of the younger left people I know, who were very vocally anti-RW press, pro-Labour and pro-Corbyn a couple of years ago are increasingly frustrated and exasperated over the Brexit position. Probably not to the extent of voting for someone else but perhaps to the extent that they won't go out and enthusiastically campaign for them in the event of a GE.

Owen Jones is a spinning weathervane though, I'm sure he was making the opposite point a few months ago.

I'd argue that Labour isn't using the vacuum created by the Tory and LibDem leadership conferences especially well, they could be taking advantage of the relative lull to release some non-Brexit related policy assignments in the way they did so well last autumn, when they actually had control over the agenda. Maybe the eyes of the media are entirely on Johnson and Hunt and no one would pay any attention, I dunno, but it would be better than nothing.

the current position didn’t demotivate the activists to go out and campaign in sunderland where by all accounts they swarmed to help. that’s because they know that there are more important first and second order issues at play when electing MPs

Things you may have missed this week ... 1/n
Jeremy Corbyn warned continuing with the austerity in schools would lead to greater inequality and “more and more underachievement”, especially for those from the poorest backgrounds or with special needshttps://t.co/fBRm5Lchjq

— Andrew Fisher (@FisherAndrew79) June 29, 2019

they are announcing things - it’s just impossible for them to win the day with the current press

it was the same during the locals and the euros - they were announcing policy after policy which were given very little airtime

Owen's concern trolling and inability to control himself, to analyse and take stock of a situation is something that is really frustrating, especially because those younger members look up to him. Certainly I'd tie it in to the demoralising effect it could be having on the membership. You'd just never trust him when it gets rough, as it will in the next few months.

xp = it's a weird lull at the moment. And summer starting too so I don't know how much attention would be paid to anything.

Jones doesn't really seem to know whether he is coming or going. Weathervane is the right description, he's just not very good

sudden flashback to when he interviewed that guy from. Weatherspoons: The Musical, and somehow came off worse

He was quite hostile to Corbynism at its weakest point in the early days. Good job he's an irrelevant annoying twerp without any influence worth shit, cos he does seem to change with whatever direction the hot air is blowing.

the only positive thing I can say about him is that he isn't Paul Mason.

I can say that he’s a target of the far right and his colleagues are OBSESSED with him. He’s annoying alright but far from the worst & he actually gets out there and campaigns fairly tirelessly given his other work commitments.

I'm not meaning to be too critical its just he's not very good (in ways that seem improvable)

Jess Phillips, Streeting .. getting targeted by the far right is no guarantee your politics don't suck absolute shit.

There's a pretty strong argument that it's a bad look to join in a pile-on that also contains some of the worst people in the country, in any case no one needs to say any more about Jess Phillips or Wes Streeting that isn't already being said.

well there is a distinct difference saying you think someone is a bit useless and a dickhead, or they are part of the problem rather than a solution on a message-board to actually threatening them online or even in person. "Piling on" is a bit strong in this context imo.

I've got issues with Labour politicians that engaged with all sorts hate speak under Miliband and after, and getting targeted by the far right doesn't erase this legacy and mean they are one of the good ones.

i thought we meant piling on in the sense of Jones piling on the "Corbyn Must Do Remain Now" shtick

oh right. I better stop posting now, because I'm heading towards dodgy territory where I start speaking ill of... forget it!

oops sorry Matt!

Sometimes I think my hatred of Labour melts is a similar thing to these fucking idiots who stick up for CW. I'm sort of just as blinkered in my own way at times, but it is a strong hatred - need to calm down sometimes!

Yes for the record I obviously don't think ILX posts constitute joining in a pile-on as no one actually reads this board other than noted lurker John McTernan who as far as I know isn't a far-right hate figure.

Guys we need to calm down and keep posting as we normally do. Wasn’t accusing anyone, especially not my secret fave, of piling on OJ - just think he gets a lot of shit from people for spurious reasons as well as the normal ones.

And Matt, you’d think a regular to this thread such as yourself would remember me self-outing as MR Seu*mas M1lne a while back?

And actually a better reason for me to defend OJ is that he does call out racism in the media and class in the media and takes a huge amount of shit for it.

Speaking of racism:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/04/ann-widdecombe-likens-brexit-to-emancipation-of-slaves

Deeply glad Strictly rehabilitated this ghoul in the public eye.

has anyone in the UK press cottoned on to the fact that the top brass in the SNP are now in open warfare about the gender recognition act ?

― ||||||||, Thursday, July 4, 2019 5:14 AM (four hours ago)

has been covered a bit in the telegraph, spectator had a piece about the heroism of joan mcalpine's brave transphobia in the face of the "scottish political establishment", saw something about it in the new statesmen etc. i just think any sort of scottish political drama that isn't about the union or doesn't cause the snp a huge electoral backlash is hardly going to set the heather alight in the rUK press

(xp) The woman who was anti-Semitic about the leader of her own party. What a character.

xp. obviously if you're a centrist fucking snp politico and you're a transphobe you should go fuck yourself off the scott monument post haste

The problem with this issue is most of the press is like, “lol, fuck the Nats” and also “lol, fuck trans people”, so there’s no side for them to take.

yeah i think you've hit the nail on the head.

sadly the division in the SNP leadership reflects the division in opinion in scottish society.