Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

yougov is usually, what, a couple points out of the rest?

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

jesus

got a flag for each of those polls

I don't trust any polling company that sounds like a cockney bootblack replying to his city gent customer who has asked what he thinks of him.

jiminavan has been like this for a couple of days. Here he is on the Dem primary thread. Give it a rest, jiminavan!

Whoever is the candidate will lose to trump

― bookmarkflaglink (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 3 July 2019 bookmarkflaglink

But especially biden

― bookmarkflaglink (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 3 July 2019 bookmarkflaglink

That’s a really awful nickname, like even Trump comes up with better nicknames than that.

even Trump

no "even" needed, Trump is good at nicknames!

I am following Trump by not being good at nicknames blame Trump!

Comrade alphabet confirmed crypto, <redacted> to thread

I'm not saying Trump is good, but this is pure Trump Derangement Syndrome, if we're not able to acknowledge his successes it makes our criticisms less credible. He IS good at nicknames, why deny it? And he was good when he told the 7 year old kid he was too old to believe in Santa.

I agree the other stuff is bad though

Jiminavan will come along shortly and tell you how good Trump is don't worry.

The polls all contradict one another right now - Survation got closest in 2017 and they have Labour very slightly in front but it's tight. Basically it's all extremely frothy and prone to change right now for the following reasons:

- we have one party with an unpopular leader and unclear Brexit policy vs two where we don't know who the leaders are going to be. But the candidates' Brexit policies are publically at least pretty consistent, especially now Hunt is entertaining No Deal to win votes. There's a huge amount of wishful thinking going on about both the Tories and LibDems.

- frustration with the main parties for spending the summer pissing around or edging slightly in one direction at a time of national crisis. Although I suspect there's also a bigger, quieter constituency who are relieved to have a break from Brexit I doubt that has much effect on the polls.

- more importantly there's a very big chance of a major political and/or economic shock coming in the autumn that no one has really priced in. The whole picture is going to be shaken heavily.

Oh also the Brexit Party share in the polls may not hold up once we hit an election campaign and a lot of it might just return to the Tories.

What sort of political shock?

An economic shock could come at any time, I’m not sure there are any political shocks left, although stumbling into a no deal Brexit would be a non surprising event that would be a shock. Death of prince phillip or her Madge is always looming.

Death of Frank Field.

It would still be a political shock (as in a shock to the system, not a surprise) if the new PM failed to secure the support of Parliament and the government collapsed.

when the process of decentralization begins, national voting intention polls for GEs will be pushed into the pit

FF is the seventh seal iirc.

Death of prince phillip or her Madge is always looming.

Even now these polls tell us very little about voting patterns at constituency level and the presence of the Brexit Party has created an unstable element that could tip constituencies into surprising results.

indeed

Yeah basically:

If, as polls consistently show, there are four parties on around a quarter of a vote, Electoral Calculus projections cannot tell you what outcome that would produce when plugged into our electoral system.

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) July 3, 2019

it is ONE poll in a time when there is a lot of froth and nonsense. regardless, LDs too evenly spread to convert many seats under FPTP; Never Tory voters will have more chances to back LAB than LDs; and, BXP, while evenly spread out too, are strong in tory constituencies. terrible poll for tories, particularly given how Hard Brexit the leadership contest has been. though concede MDC is probably right that many BXP voters will return to the fold in a GE

Sorry but people vote differently in a GE & the next one will undoubtedly be high stakes. It’s ok to vote Lib Dem in a Euro election when they don’t have a chance of running your country, but minor parties tend to get squeezed in uncertain elections & that’s what happened last time.

more than any polling which is often from samples of 1200-1600 people. I take more heart from the levels of shitting it on display recently.

1200-1600 is a pretty sound basis for polling though, provided it's not just "your mates' mates"

I’m sure the 12ft lizzards can time the death of Phillip for greatest political effect.

And any Tory government can milk that hoard old crust for everything it’s worth.

Does anyone seriously believe that the IMF are going to give the top job to George Osborne? I know he's pretty much the only candidate the bookies have heard of but even then why would they go for him over Carney?

would having the best coke dealing connections increase your chances of getting the job?

Friends of the erstwhile Tory politician, now editor of the Evening Standard, said Mr Osborne was giving the role “serious thought”.

The Irish Times reports that Mark Carney's the favourite!

Other potential candidates to succeed Ms Lagarde include Bank for International Settlements head Agustin Carstens; Monetary Authority of Singapore chairman minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam; Credit Suisse Group chief executive officer Tidjane Thiam and Mohamed El-Erian, the former chief executive of Pacific Investment Management and a Bloomberg ppinion columnist.

Lots of foreign names here, don't think their coke game would really stand up, they don't like it up 'em (sorry)

Saudi Arabia are apparently hosting the next G20 so Osborne at the IMF sure why not?

govt trying to rush through a bill putting back the date for a NI election by introducing it as emergency legislation to nix the move to introduce marriage equality. idk what the rules for emergency legislation are but it sounds like they suck and are being repeatedly exploited re: NI

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/uk-government-to-rush-through-northern-ireland-laws-in-bid-to-thwart-gay-marriage-bid-report-38280630.html

They are supposed to give more time to scrutinise legislation than this - this is total bullshit & I hope there’s outrage over this.

has anyone in the UK press cottoned on to the fact that the top brass in the SNP are now in open warfare about the gender recognition act ?

Quite a good thread on this week's attacks from various sections:

In a FPTP electoral system, demoralising your opponent's supporters is often more effective than energising your own. pic.twitter.com/JkxOQG2qrC

— David Timoney (@fromarsetoelbow) July 4, 2019

And I hate hate this position.

What’s so excruciating about the current Labour Brexit palaver is the party will inevitably back a People’s-Vote-with-Remain position, either at Conference, or in the manifesto process of an election. It just risks getting none of the political benefits when it does.

— Owen Jones🌹 (@OwenJones84) July 4, 2019

A lot of the younger left people I know, who were very vocally anti-RW press, pro-Labour and pro-Corbyn a couple of years ago are increasingly frustrated and exasperated over the Brexit position. Probably not to the extent of voting for someone else but perhaps to the extent that they won't go out and enthusiastically campaign for them in the event of a GE.

Owen Jones is a spinning weathervane though, I'm sure he was making the opposite point a few months ago.

I'd argue that Labour isn't using the vacuum created by the Tory and LibDem leadership conferences especially well, they could be taking advantage of the relative lull to release some non-Brexit related policy assignments in the way they did so well last autumn, when they actually had control over the agenda. Maybe the eyes of the media are entirely on Johnson and Hunt and no one would pay any attention, I dunno, but it would be better than nothing.

the current position didn’t demotivate the activists to go out and campaign in sunderland where by all accounts they swarmed to help. that’s because they know that there are more important first and second order issues at play when electing MPs

Things you may have missed this week ... 1/n
Jeremy Corbyn warned continuing with the austerity in schools would lead to greater inequality and “more and more underachievement”, especially for those from the poorest backgrounds or with special needshttps://t.co/fBRm5Lchjq

— Andrew Fisher (@FisherAndrew79) June 29, 2019

they are announcing things - it’s just impossible for them to win the day with the current press

it was the same during the locals and the euros - they were announcing policy after policy which were given very little airtime

Owen's concern trolling and inability to control himself, to analyse and take stock of a situation is something that is really frustrating, especially because those younger members look up to him. Certainly I'd tie it in to the demoralising effect it could be having on the membership. You'd just never trust him when it gets rough, as it will in the next few months.

xp = it's a weird lull at the moment. And summer starting too so I don't know how much attention would be paid to anything.

Jones doesn't really seem to know whether he is coming or going. Weathervane is the right description, he's just not very good

sudden flashback to when he interviewed that guy from. Weatherspoons: The Musical, and somehow came off worse

He was quite hostile to Corbynism at its weakest point in the early days. Good job he's an irrelevant annoying twerp without any influence worth shit, cos he does seem to change with whatever direction the hot air is blowing.