Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

Always worth a revive, that

I'm sure Ed Davey's son won't even need a ehcp plan and will get everything he needs privately. But fucking hell .. what a staggeringly reductive and evil thing to say about your own kid on the radio ffs! Fuck these LibDems forever.

Christ, imagine hearing your dad say that about you. “Not what we wanted but we made the best of it.”

I can!

You deserved a better dad!

That’s horrific - I can only hope he gets dragged by every decent person for this.

He won’t be. George Osborne got booed at the Paralympics and nobody cared.

this wasn't a live gaffe either, it was a pre-recorded interview with oily Nick Robinson.

As I say, sadly it's one of the cliches of a certain kind of disability patronization.

"You know, it's like going to open an account at LK Bennett and finding the company's gone into administration"

could you imagine being so relaxed with that kind of cold dead-eyed disablist speak about your own kid that you can say it on national radio and not think you sound like a complete piece of shit? But that does kind of sum up the libdem party perfectly tbh.

That's Sir Ed Davey to you, by the way.

BREAKING: Labour down to 18%, record low in poll

CON 24%(+2)
BREX 23%(+1)
LDEM 20%(+1)
LAB 18%(-2)
GRN 9%(-1)

📉Lowest ever rating with @YouGov back to 2002

📉Only time as low as 18% was IpsosMORI in May’09

📉57% of Lab ‘17 voters back other partieshttps://t.co/DdJkLH2g8b pic.twitter.com/WJrZaHwXXv

— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) July 3, 2019

oooooooof

lads, it's YouGov

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

yougov co-founded by that fucking clown Zahawi and consistently out with every other pollster.

the same YouGov that "discovered" most people don't care about trains, the same day of a huge season ticket hike etc...

(jiminvancouvertoolong)!

i know it's yougov

oh right your initial "oof" didn't quite show that level of awareness.

yougov is usually, what, a couple points out of the rest?

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

jesus

got a flag for each of those polls

I don't trust any polling company that sounds like a cockney bootblack replying to his city gent customer who has asked what he thinks of him.

jiminavan has been like this for a couple of days. Here he is on the Dem primary thread. Give it a rest, jiminavan!

Whoever is the candidate will lose to trump

― bookmarkflaglink (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 3 July 2019 bookmarkflaglink

But especially biden

― bookmarkflaglink (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 3 July 2019 bookmarkflaglink

That’s a really awful nickname, like even Trump comes up with better nicknames than that.

even Trump

no "even" needed, Trump is good at nicknames!

I am following Trump by not being good at nicknames blame Trump!

Comrade alphabet confirmed crypto, <redacted> to thread

I'm not saying Trump is good, but this is pure Trump Derangement Syndrome, if we're not able to acknowledge his successes it makes our criticisms less credible. He IS good at nicknames, why deny it? And he was good when he told the 7 year old kid he was too old to believe in Santa.

I agree the other stuff is bad though

Jiminavan will come along shortly and tell you how good Trump is don't worry.

The polls all contradict one another right now - Survation got closest in 2017 and they have Labour very slightly in front but it's tight. Basically it's all extremely frothy and prone to change right now for the following reasons:

- we have one party with an unpopular leader and unclear Brexit policy vs two where we don't know who the leaders are going to be. But the candidates' Brexit policies are publically at least pretty consistent, especially now Hunt is entertaining No Deal to win votes. There's a huge amount of wishful thinking going on about both the Tories and LibDems.

- frustration with the main parties for spending the summer pissing around or edging slightly in one direction at a time of national crisis. Although I suspect there's also a bigger, quieter constituency who are relieved to have a break from Brexit I doubt that has much effect on the polls.

- more importantly there's a very big chance of a major political and/or economic shock coming in the autumn that no one has really priced in. The whole picture is going to be shaken heavily.

Oh also the Brexit Party share in the polls may not hold up once we hit an election campaign and a lot of it might just return to the Tories.

What sort of political shock?

An economic shock could come at any time, I’m not sure there are any political shocks left, although stumbling into a no deal Brexit would be a non surprising event that would be a shock. Death of prince phillip or her Madge is always looming.

Death of Frank Field.

It would still be a political shock (as in a shock to the system, not a surprise) if the new PM failed to secure the support of Parliament and the government collapsed.

when the process of decentralization begins, national voting intention polls for GEs will be pushed into the pit

FF is the seventh seal iirc.

Death of prince phillip or her Madge is always looming.

Even now these polls tell us very little about voting patterns at constituency level and the presence of the Brexit Party has created an unstable element that could tip constituencies into surprising results.

indeed

Yeah basically:

If, as polls consistently show, there are four parties on around a quarter of a vote, Electoral Calculus projections cannot tell you what outcome that would produce when plugged into our electoral system.

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) July 3, 2019

it is ONE poll in a time when there is a lot of froth and nonsense. regardless, LDs too evenly spread to convert many seats under FPTP; Never Tory voters will have more chances to back LAB than LDs; and, BXP, while evenly spread out too, are strong in tory constituencies. terrible poll for tories, particularly given how Hard Brexit the leadership contest has been. though concede MDC is probably right that many BXP voters will return to the fold in a GE

Sorry but people vote differently in a GE & the next one will undoubtedly be high stakes. It’s ok to vote Lib Dem in a Euro election when they don’t have a chance of running your country, but minor parties tend to get squeezed in uncertain elections & that’s what happened last time.

more than any polling which is often from samples of 1200-1600 people. I take more heart from the levels of shitting it on display recently.

1200-1600 is a pretty sound basis for polling though, provided it's not just "your mates' mates"

I’m sure the 12ft lizzards can time the death of Phillip for greatest political effect.

And any Tory government can milk that hoard old crust for everything it’s worth.

Does anyone seriously believe that the IMF are going to give the top job to George Osborne? I know he's pretty much the only candidate the bookies have heard of but even then why would they go for him over Carney?