Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

Also I feel like the TW deputy leader campaign was dependent on support from Unite, which ofc he doesn’t have now.

His approach to discipline seems to me to have its roots in the idea that Labour is a democratic organisation

i mean this is true at an ethical level and JC takes this dimension of politics very seriously, and what you go on to say is a good example of how his approach is about bringing ethics and strategy into alignment with one another -- but i still think his team's distaste for the blair-campbell approach to win-the-day tactics is sometimes a weakness or shall we say a drag

(and not just because it means they often seem to lose the day, which i don't think is as much of a problem as many believe)

what has he done with it? diddly zilch

not true!! his last FM cognomen and selection continue to bring gaiety to an exhausted nation

(or it would if i could remember it, like mbaggy or something?)

baggymp

lol my version is better and also makes less sense

if you were to itemise all the days won in the past few years you’d only have those from inside the GE17 purdah

honestly it has been mentally fatiguing being a “labour supporter” these past few years. I had to rejoin twitter just to get access to some balance and perspective

just listening to Ed Davey's clunky metaphor of describing having a son with disabilities as "going on holiday to Italy but the plane get's diverted to Brussels" what a horribly bizarre metaphor and what a fucking prize pumper.

https://www.autreat.com/dont_mourn.html

Always worth a revive, that

I'm sure Ed Davey's son won't even need a ehcp plan and will get everything he needs privately. But fucking hell .. what a staggeringly reductive and evil thing to say about your own kid on the radio ffs! Fuck these LibDems forever.

Christ, imagine hearing your dad say that about you. “Not what we wanted but we made the best of it.”

I can!

You deserved a better dad!

That’s horrific - I can only hope he gets dragged by every decent person for this.

He won’t be. George Osborne got booed at the Paralympics and nobody cared.

this wasn't a live gaffe either, it was a pre-recorded interview with oily Nick Robinson.

As I say, sadly it's one of the cliches of a certain kind of disability patronization.

"You know, it's like going to open an account at LK Bennett and finding the company's gone into administration"

could you imagine being so relaxed with that kind of cold dead-eyed disablist speak about your own kid that you can say it on national radio and not think you sound like a complete piece of shit? But that does kind of sum up the libdem party perfectly tbh.

That's Sir Ed Davey to you, by the way.

BREAKING: Labour down to 18%, record low in poll

CON 24%(+2)
BREX 23%(+1)
LDEM 20%(+1)
LAB 18%(-2)
GRN 9%(-1)

📉Lowest ever rating with @YouGov back to 2002

📉Only time as low as 18% was IpsosMORI in May’09

📉57% of Lab ‘17 voters back other partieshttps://t.co/DdJkLH2g8b pic.twitter.com/WJrZaHwXXv

— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) July 3, 2019

oooooooof

lads, it's YouGov

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

yougov co-founded by that fucking clown Zahawi and consistently out with every other pollster.

the same YouGov that "discovered" most people don't care about trains, the same day of a huge season ticket hike etc...

(jiminvancouvertoolong)!

i know it's yougov

oh right your initial "oof" didn't quite show that level of awareness.

yougov is usually, what, a couple points out of the rest?

https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

jesus

got a flag for each of those polls

I don't trust any polling company that sounds like a cockney bootblack replying to his city gent customer who has asked what he thinks of him.

jiminavan has been like this for a couple of days. Here he is on the Dem primary thread. Give it a rest, jiminavan!

Whoever is the candidate will lose to trump

― bookmarkflaglink (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 3 July 2019 bookmarkflaglink

But especially biden

― bookmarkflaglink (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 3 July 2019 bookmarkflaglink

That’s a really awful nickname, like even Trump comes up with better nicknames than that.

even Trump

no "even" needed, Trump is good at nicknames!

I am following Trump by not being good at nicknames blame Trump!

Comrade alphabet confirmed crypto, <redacted> to thread

I'm not saying Trump is good, but this is pure Trump Derangement Syndrome, if we're not able to acknowledge his successes it makes our criticisms less credible. He IS good at nicknames, why deny it? And he was good when he told the 7 year old kid he was too old to believe in Santa.

I agree the other stuff is bad though

Jiminavan will come along shortly and tell you how good Trump is don't worry.

The polls all contradict one another right now - Survation got closest in 2017 and they have Labour very slightly in front but it's tight. Basically it's all extremely frothy and prone to change right now for the following reasons:

- we have one party with an unpopular leader and unclear Brexit policy vs two where we don't know who the leaders are going to be. But the candidates' Brexit policies are publically at least pretty consistent, especially now Hunt is entertaining No Deal to win votes. There's a huge amount of wishful thinking going on about both the Tories and LibDems.

- frustration with the main parties for spending the summer pissing around or edging slightly in one direction at a time of national crisis. Although I suspect there's also a bigger, quieter constituency who are relieved to have a break from Brexit I doubt that has much effect on the polls.

- more importantly there's a very big chance of a major political and/or economic shock coming in the autumn that no one has really priced in. The whole picture is going to be shaken heavily.

Oh also the Brexit Party share in the polls may not hold up once we hit an election campaign and a lot of it might just return to the Tories.

What sort of political shock?

An economic shock could come at any time, I’m not sure there are any political shocks left, although stumbling into a no deal Brexit would be a non surprising event that would be a shock. Death of prince phillip or her Madge is always looming.

Death of Frank Field.

It would still be a political shock (as in a shock to the system, not a surprise) if the new PM failed to secure the support of Parliament and the government collapsed.

when the process of decentralization begins, national voting intention polls for GEs will be pushed into the pit

FF is the seventh seal iirc.

Death of prince phillip or her Madge is always looming.

Even now these polls tell us very little about voting patterns at constituency level and the presence of the Brexit Party has created an unstable element that could tip constituencies into surprising results.

indeed