The car's on fire and there's no driver at the wheel - The Tory leadership elections

Yeah i think they'll want to go thru the motions

The prospect of Boris Johnson going through an entire month without saying something stupid seems implausible - if that is, and it's an enormous if, he's actually put under any pressure and held up to proper scrutiny.

He seems to be better at keeping quiet in the run up to elections than he is at any of the other things he is paid for

It doesn't especially matter whether he says anything dodgy or not. He's said enough already and not enough people who will be voting give a shit.

True but I still like to see the cunt squirm, if only for a short while.

unfettered boris is something that will unwind badly for him in election conditions... well imo anyway. they daren't even let unfettered boris out in front of fucking tory members - what hope in a GE?

I think he could win a GE or at least have a decent shot at it, under this scenario: a) he wins leadership, b) he goes straight to Brussels, c) he comes back with nothing, says EU is being obstructionist, only solution is no-deal, d) he does a deal with Farage, whereby Farage promises not to put up candidates in any seat where there is a no-deal supporting Tory candidate, e) he calls an election.

If that all happened quickly enough it might catch Labour in the middle of a civil war with no clear brexit message and the Tories might pull it off, at least as a minority govt with support from DUP and Brexit Party. Of course a lot of things would have to go right for them, but sadly I don't think it's impossible for the Tories to win the next election.

I definitely think the Tories can win the next election.

he does a deal with Farage, whereby Farage promises not to put up candidates in any seat where there is a no-deal supporting Tory candidate,

Whats the likelihood of this? I'm not seeing it

and is that even really a good deal for Boris anyway? How many Peterboroughs would Labour need, not that many

It's either that, or he somehow gets a version of May's deal through. The EU aren't going to budge, and the current parliament will impede no deal.

I don't see how he wins an election unless Farage stands aside completely, not just where there are no-deal MPs. And standing aside completely is untenable for Farage

happy “it’s OK for conservative MPs to physically assault women” discourse day everyone

farage will stand aside for 1 a seat at the negotiating table or maybe 2 his knighthood

the only thing I can confidently predict is that when a GE is called, on R4 there will be a lot of interviews with trad labour voters declaring they are voting for the brexit party and the phrase "keep Corbyn out of no.10" will be used about two thousand times and the word "marxist" will used an additional two thousand times. What Peterborough should have taught Farage is that he needs to start spending some of that dark money on ground troops.

I can't see the Brexit Party even getting the previous UKIP share if Johnson goes into a snap election backing No Deal. I think Johnson would win and the reluctant Tories will fall into line behind him.

Farage has left politics and returned to the fray more than pretty much anyone else. He could frame it as retiring for lifestyle/health reasons. He could just go "Brexit PM was all I wanted, job done" - after all he exists to put pressure on the Tories and externally influence policy.

It's probably unrealistic because they're doing so well in the polls but that might not continue with Johnson as PM.

Thing is that in the event of No Deal Britain would be forced back to the negotiating table almost immediately with less power than ever and it would be an unprecedented humiliation for the Tories. The damage to the country, to businesses and to hundreds of thousands of people who need affordable food and medicine would be done by then though.

How many Peterboroughs would Labour need, not that many

I feel I'm not following you here - Peterborough was a Labour hold, but one where 6% of the BP votes going to the Tories* or 10% of the Tory votes going to the BP, would have been a loss.

(or 6% more going to the Tories than to Labour, rather)

happy “it’s OK for conservative MPs to physically assault women” discourse day everyone

Farage has been framing the Brexit Party as "I take my eye off the ball and trust the Tories to Tory, and this is what happens!" - he'd probably find it difficult to go through that cycle again - but he's a cheeky chappie like Boris, he'd probably get away with it.

last sentence very much “quiet bit out loud” from lilico here

Another thing. Suppose the protester had been a bloke & the restrainer had been a much larger bloke, with a similar weight & strength advantage to Field here. Would you be declaring the larger bloke a bully or heavy-handed or accusing him of assault?

— Andrew Lilico (@andrew_lilico) June 20, 2019

also this is why labour should continue to form their brexit policy on contingency - they need to wait to see whether BJ pivots to NDB (with sir nigel riding off into the sunset) and then calibrate/triangulate from there. the good thing is that they have been utterly consistent from day dot that they are utterly opposed to NDB

xp what if the protester had actually been a rabid wolf? what about THAT?

Not sure about this: Field is seen here being rough, but noisy disruption of big speech by low carbon Minister is also a mild form of violence. Greenpeace likes to have its cake and eat it. Very Boris ! https://t.co/B3bz4dAhvj

— MichaelWhite (@michaelwhite) June 21, 2019

The spectrum of violence starts with being uncivil is clearly one of the themes of the summer.

Or a Middle Eastern male. Field's self-defence claims would suddenly appear more 'credible' in some quarters. He wouldn't have even felt the need to publicly apologise.

xp

How has he not been sacked yet?

Cos they know who votes for them.

grabbing women by the neck is free speech

I don't see how he wins an election unless Farage stands aside completely, not just where there are no-deal MPs. And standing aside completely is untenable for Farage

Because we're in the UK and it's full of right wing cunts?

Greenpeace protestor was wearing a provocative sash, who is the real aggressor here?

I was reading some pseopholgist Twitter thread yesterday that suggested the Brexit Party could split the vote to such an extent you could see some weird anomalies like strongly Leave areas being represented by LibDem MPs (I guess maybe in the South West?)

It also analysed the 100 or so most marginal seats and on average they aren't especially Brexity (almost exactly 50/50 Leave Remain vote). So a campaign that focuses entirely on Brexit could go very badly for the Tories.

psephology? *drake looking glum*
phrenology? *drake going yay*

Dread to thing what a phrenologist would make of Mark Francois's head.

Hah, psepholgist.

but noisy disruption of big speech by low carbon Minister is also a mild form of violence

*&^$^*%$&(*

So this:

I feel like we're still waiting for this crisis, which is 30 years in the Conservative Party's making, to genuinely and permanently harm the Conservative Party

— Will Davies (@davies_will) June 20, 2019

Is pretty true. I think some of the posts (including Zelda nd NV outlining scenarios for the next few months) saying Boris can win speak to that.

Zelda's a-e has some unexamined assumptions, namely on how good Boris will he at executing anything like a strategy. Making Brussels look bad given his bluster and no negotiating skills could be difficult. He will be given all the help by the media but so was May, and Johnson could turn out to be even more incompetent than her.

And then a lot rests on no deal being a winner with the public instead of a loud, fringe position for people who want Brexit. We are also assuming the Brexit party will do whatever Farage says and that indepedent 'Brexit' candidates won't spring up all over should they not stand as a party at a GE. Or that other issues aren't going to matter or come into play in a normal election. That's not just the NHS but some skeletons hiding away for the guy personally, and what he says - maybe post-Trump we think nobody cares but I doubt this all has gone away as a thing.

Because we're in the UK and it's full of right wing cunts?

Who can't be relied on to vote Conservatives unless Farage steps out the way

I feel I'm not following you here - Peterborough was a Labour hold, but one where 6% of the BP votes going to the Tories* or 10% of the Tory votes going to the BP, would have been a loss.

Where Con/Brexit party combined get more votes than Labour but Labour wins the seat

Fundamentally, this is not about giving the public what they want, it's about turning the UK into the US (Singapore if you're lucky) and Johnson, Farage, their business benefactors and the press are all pushing in the same direction. I'd be surprised if the Brexit Party exists by the time of the next election, if it does, i think it'll be polling under UKIP's last GE numbers.

I think 2017 has changed the assumption that these peple automatically get what they want.

agree with that but share some of SV’s nervousness around the prospects of a BJ led tory party in a GE, particularly when current polling shows 4 parties on roughly 20%. you’d have to think that the BXP vote is much more elastic than that of the LDs and so CONs could welcome a large part of their vote back into their coalition.

would that coalition win a GE under FPTP tho? I don’t know

all the things comrade alphabet highlights as potential free radicals w/in a GE are valid (though I doubt if NF collapsed the BXP infrastructure independents with any electoral valency would spring up). BJ is poison in scotland so you would expect the pro-union pro-remain vote to go to LDs, which would mean goodbye to 12 scottish tory MPs. I gather he is very divisive outwith the SE too... will cameroonian social liberals be welcomed back into the fold? highly unlikely if they campaign on NDB

Osborne is supporting Boris btw - Tories are all about power and winning elections, fuck the rest of it.

Yeah the vision SV outlines doesn't have anywhere near widespread public support and could indeed whip up a lot of hostility. Doesn't mean the country won't get it forced down their throats anyway.

Good to know that Osborne's conduct over the last three years has all been about personal revenge on May and nothing to do with Brexit really.

Osborne is supporting Boris btw - Tories are all about power and winning elections, fuck the rest of it.

Not saying this isn't true but Osborne was not supporting May. I'm sure the editorial on 2017 was vote Tory but he undermined her premiership every step of the way.

Did I say anything that remotely suggested that ? No. I merely suggested that there was fault on both sides. Noisy disruption in an era of nihilistic terrorism must have been scary

— MichaelWhite (@michaelwhite) June 21, 2019

"on both sides" - wonder who else talked like this.

You'd be tempted to think m white was going senile if he wasn't being such an obvious disingenuous twat.

Remember the time he faced off against Giles Coren on twitter?

This one is going for Tom D's heart:

I am sure @LibDems will prefer @BorisJohnson for Tory leader. Anyone who betrays friends, colleagues and national interest so easily can betray the #NoDealBrexit headbangers, delivering #Referendum and Exit from Brexit. I agree with @George_Osborne on this

— Vince Cable (@vincecable) June 21, 2019