The car's on fire and there's no driver at the wheel - The Tory leadership elections

war is good guys

I am very intelligent

Can't afford to look soft during a Tory leadership race:

Sajid Javid urged to intervene as the Home Office plans to deport a grieving 11-year-old orphan, who has lived here almost all of his life, to a country he doesn't remember https://t.co/VJznKXjGt9

— liane gomersall (@ligomersall) June 15, 2019

jfc maybe we're not killing the right MPs

Another thing about May is how she has perhaps set new standards for cruelty towards migrants. Others can only match it now.

As a first requirement..

srsly anybody who collaborates at any stage in this process i don't know how they can live with themselves

Totally, just want to burn the home office down.

"jfc maybe we're not killing the right MPs"

was listening to some glib rinse earlier on 5live about how we need to be nicer to pols, throwing milkshakes is violence, we've got more in common that than what divides us... zzzzz .. nothing learned from her own sister getting murdered other than we need more "nice" moderates in politics.. hmm let me think how much moderates have done to prevent millions of people having nothing in common or hostile environment.

I tell you what, let's all protest about Donald Trump and completely ignore all the shit that's going on in our own backyards.

they often have these "more in common" great get togethers up the road from me. So poor people suffering from UC sanctions or delayed payments etc can get to meet the smug middle class prick who donated that packet of sainsburys brand penne they got from the foodbank and show some good ol' community cohesion!

NEW Rory Stewart: 50,000 people could get a phone call to ask them to sort out Brexit, like jury service. #Marr

— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) June 16, 2019

"press 1 for Norway option..

so it looks like one of Gove/Hunt against Boris on the final ballot.

Hunt, surely.

50,000 Angry Men

https://www.bfi.org.uk/films-tv-people/sites/bfi.org.uk.films-tv-people/files/styles/gallery_full/public/image/12-angry-men-bfi-00m-q2r.jpg

https://img.discogs.com/wHfRUM6LRXrmHU4bhtPy_piY8Fc=/fit-in/500x500/filters:strip_icc():format(jpeg):mode_rgb():quality(90)/discogs-images/R-699059-1149099745.jpeg.jpg

I'm not so sure it's necessarily going to be Hunt. A lot depends on whether the Stop Boris brigade conclude their interests are going to be best served by having a committed Brexiter face off against Johnson in the final two, rather than a former Remainer who could be too easily caricatured as May pt II. Gove is probably *slightly* more likely to beat Johnson than Hunt in a contest where blandness really isn't seen as a good thing, but I think on balance he's probably fucked it.

There are currently 50 spare Parliamentary votes up for grabs, more if there are other withdrawals. I'm assuming Rory Stewart lacks the humility to quit but things don't appear to proceeding according to plan for the Saj or Dominic Raab. The latter's votes would probably go straight to Johnson in any case, but a draining away of Javid's remaining support would boost one of the other candidates.

Johnson is too far ahead to be touched now but the picture could change heavily for the others.

It's possible that Raab might make up some ground by presenting himself as the real Brexit hardman when Johnson is empty-chaired in the C4 debate but fuck actually watching it to find out.

"..lets let 50000 schools of thought contend/flowers bloom etc... and if they are nearly all headbangers . well we'll try again!"

That is the worst thing ever pic.twitter.com/iHAxb8yiNw

— John Blundell (@johnblundell993) June 16, 2019

HE DRINKS A LAAGER DRINK

bantz heuristic has always taken me to hunt but gove is certainly putting good work in these last few days tbrr :(

Johnson is too far ahead to be touched now but the picture could change heavily for the others.

― Matt DC,

Does Johnson being this far ahead change calculations for backers that they can afford for some of them to peel off and support Raab, to game the final two?

Also I've no idea how relevant this is

Want to hear what Torbay (63% Leave, 14,283 Conservative majority) thinks of Boris Johnson? Listen from 1min55 onwards... 👂🏾👂🏾👂🏾 https://t.co/MDdo4Vb0k0

— Ash Sarkar (@AyoCaesar) June 15, 2019

thats pretty loud cheering for Ash's criticisms of Boris in a heavy leave/Tory area - but I've no idea how representative the audience are

most of those cheering don't have a vote in the leadership contest: part of my argument that boris can't become tory leader has been that the tory party has historically been very good at adapting to survive and boris-as-leader will wreck it, and the party knows this

but i think may's time in office has very badly damaged tory adaptive mechanisms though (the damage is still semi-invisible: but boris being chosen is a key symptom)

The crowd reactions in that recording are a tonic

I am clowning myself by *checks notes* wondering whether someone who constantly fawns over Tories might be doing something a bit questionable by hanging out with a pro-apartheid group?

No, that's not what I'm saying at all.

(I have no particular desire to be Cap'n Save-a-The-Freedom-Association, but "their dads were probably pro-apartheid back when it was the position of half of the cabinet" is closer to the mark, AFAIK)

I mean the idea that this is all a game to her - which I don't believe. For example:

tee-hee-heeing about politics that cast people into misery and sometimes death

That'd be pretty serious, but I've not seen it.

most of those cheering don't have a vote in the leadership contest: part of my argument that boris can't become tory leader has been that the tory party has historically been very good at adapting to survive and boris-as-leader will wreck it, and the party knows this

First - are the reactions relevant in any way? Does it make a difference any difference that they are reacting like that?

Second - does Boris-as-leader wreck it while Farage is a force? Aren't they kind of hemmed in? How do they see off the Farage threat without Boris or similar?

Idle thoughts department: wondering if Stanley Johnson was on an expat salary package in Brussels that paid for his sons’ Eton College fees.

Right, but there's probably no solution for the Tory party - or none they'll take.

does it make a difference any difference - to what? the leadership contest? no. voting patterns in torbay? it's an indicator of the feelings of a room full of people, all kinds of info and weighting needed to extrapolate from it

all the elements in yr second question are aspects of the wreck, which is already here for them -- it's kind of an expansion of what i mean by "symptom" (tho there are other elements at work also)

to what? the leadership contest?

yes, what difference to this I guess? Is Boris the shoe-in thats imagined? If the audience in a strong Tory/Leave seat is indicative of Tory party members surely this has some relevance? If not then it doesn't

— what's it telling us? that many people really dislike and distrust him
— is it telling us that enough people countrywide -- able to vote and etc -- dislike him to take an opponent over 50%? we don't know enough to extrapolate
— if people not present hear this clip will they change their vote (this is what i assumed you meant by "make a difference")? maybe! boris is not implacably popular in the party! but they are in a massive panic, hedged at all ends and faced with ruin! their judgment will continue to be bad, for them as well as everyone else!

Any Questions audiences can vary from region to region but tend to be quite remainish in my experience, or sometimes they just love cheering guests, even if what they are saying is completely inverse to what the last guest they cheered said. Although the bbc would probably say this is a sign of a healthy mix in the audience - I think they clapping monkeys!

although I love it when a guest makes a trenchantly milking the audience comment and there is a moment where you can tell they are expecting a cheer or even just some hushed disapproval .. and it's followed by complete silence.

I think QT is more of a pull for vaguely fascist brexit ultras, meh who wants to be on the radio?

If you want a handle on listener thoughts, gird yourself for a listen to Any Answers.

— if people not present hear this clip will they change their vote (this is what i assumed you meant by "make a difference")? maybe!

no, not this. I wasn't thinking this would change anyones mind. The question was...how many of the people in the audience are Tories? If a lot then why are they so anti Boris when they're supposedly not?

Calzino's answers seem to cover the reasons for the cheering pretty well though, to counter that

lots of tories are very anti-boris!! but (possibly) not a majority

They all hated Cameron and they all hate Boris but come the GE, they will still vote Conservative.

I know they'll vote Conservative, but the question is will they definitely vote Boris for leader as easily as the odds are suggesting (landslide)?

Doesn't matter if he wins, which he will.

hm

Look, does it matter? Rory's parliament (church across the street) will bring him down.

Gapes GAME OF RUMPS: or "Take Away that Bauble"
https://c8.alamy.com/comp/HT13K9/take-away-that-bauble-cromwell-dissolving-the-long-parliament-1850-HT13K9.jpg

they all hate Boris but come the GE, they will still vote Conservative

suzy otm

"take away that Raable"

is that shit on tv now? jesus help us, time for another ale and a nap.

apparently, i'm watching my email re-index instead (currently it has 69 hours and 8 minutes to go)

nice

Have to confess that I watched the Labour deputy leadership debate in 2007, I remember that Harriet Harman was just about ok, and Hazel Blears was the absolute worst.

No interest at all in watching this one.