Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

The headbangeriest headbanger could become PM and still not get No Deal done, because the maths hasn’t changed.

(I mean, unless they dissolved Parliament but unless they elect Peter Bone or Marc Francois that isn’t happening)

Would the EU continue to offer extensions to the headbangeriest headbanger though?

i may have jumped the gun investing £10k in 'francoismania' t-shirts

This relies on remainy Tories and ChUKers opposing the government in a VONC to bring it down - and can we be certain that they will? I’m not so sure.

not a chance in hell

It depends on the toxicity of the winning candidate I think, but I'm inclined to agree with NACIH.

I think tories (including chuk) will fall in line no matter how toxic the leader tbh

That’s what I think too - especially when you see Amber “fifth count” Rudd pulling a total reversal on Boris the last few days.

exciting to see the robust pivot from "magical grandpa *scornful snort* " to "magical [insert still-unknown name here] cannot be anything but good (and not bad)"

Amber Rudd on the 10th of May:

BREXITEERS like Boris Johnson can’t become PM because Tory Remainers will rebel against them, Amber Rudd warned last night.
The Cabinet minister claimed MPs would rather bring down the Government and trigger a General Election than accept a No Deal Brexit.

Ms Rudd added: “Sure, I like him yeah. To be brutal I like most of my colleagues. I am not somebody who actually fights. I get on perfectly well with him.”

She refused to comment on the future but said: “I have worked with him before. He was Foreign Secretary, I was Home Secretary. We were able to work together.”

Ah sorry, second bit was meant to be “Amber Rudd two days ago”

This relies on remainy Tories and ChUKers opposing the government in a VONC to bring it down - and can we be certain that they will? I’m not so sure.

exactly how far over the edge of the precipice do you think we'd have to be before Tories and Chukers develop enough backbone to VONC, say, Boris?

i mean from most perspectives they had more to gain by doing it to May and here we are

I am really puzzled and surprised by Paul Mason's recent turn to massive 'red on red' combat polemic.

I have always liked him very much, but I think that he is somewhat insular - obsessed with party officials and publications that most people have barely heard of and don't care about.

And I don't think that his 'anti-Brexit platform = electoral success' idea is particularly convincing.

IIRC Dominic Grieve has said he'd quit the party if Johnson became leader but who knows. There may be one or two senior Tories who know their careers would be over under Boris who might be tempted to self-immolate to prevent No Deal but what's the point in relying on people like Philip Hammond to do anything?

I'd hope even ChUK would realise that there is literally no point to them if their one policy is "don't like Brexit" and they don't back a VoNC which may well be the only way left of averting Brexit, but last night's results may have shown them that everyone has already worked out there's no point to them, so they need to cling to their seats for as long as possible as they're not getting them back

good to see that trashbag Janice Atkinson lost her seat also - tho I guess it frees her up for more Rebel Media racist shitvids

ChUK cannot even agree on things like whether to recommend tactical voting or whether to merge with the LDs.

It is extraordinary how they are spontaneously having their disagreements in public, already.

Though, despite their dreadfulness in every way - if they have really taken eg: 4% of the vote - isn't that actually a substantial chunk of vote that eg: Labour needs back? Or maybe it doesn't work this way in practice.

i mean from most perspectives they had more to gain by doing it to May and here we are

i think the chances of the parliamentary Tories no-confidencing a newly-elected leader, of any stripe, are infinitesimal

*one* of the key reasons for the failure of a parliamentary way out of this impasse is that most career MPs will never underestimate the cowardice of their fellow career MPs

otm

When you find out Tommy Robinson got smashed in the European elections... 🕺🤣 #EuropeanElectionResults #EUElectionResults pic.twitter.com/khlhWP5zbl

— Dave Ward (@DaveWardGS) May 27, 2019

this is beautiful

Excellent use of the meme, which should slowly override its Untergang variant.

You know you’re old when it’s your first time seeing a meme

NV OTM — but Brexit is and always has been Tory mutually assured destruction. The new leader doesn’t get a honeymoon, they get faced with a rapidly ticking clock to Oct 31 and don’t even have time for No Deal prep.

There are enough Tories who know exactly what No Deal means (and what it will do to their careers) that that there’s just no sane route to it happening (on Oct 31, at least)

Absolutely agree there's no sane route, thinking more of Govellum falling into the pit of Mount Doom with May's gnawed-off finger in his hands

in some ways i think Gove is even more dangerous than boris. he's probably more likely to happen and is more of a dour stayer type, who will obsessively see his grim and stupidly detrimental ideas implemented on the UK.

Say we get to the deadline with a new Prime Minister and Parliament still intractably deadlocked. I guess that the EU will never outright say "no further extension without a general election" - seems like a bad look for them to put outright pressure on a (kind of still) member state's political process. I assume there's not much certainty at the moment as to what the stance towards Brexit will be given the shake-up of the European parliament. Surely if the will is there on the EU side to extend further they'll still need to insist on some kind of pretext to offer it?

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/05/27/european-elections-remain-triumphant

Remain won

Whatever the policy of Labour on Europe it can't be a 2nd ref/Remain and reform. These people are dumb and reckless. The libs don't like revoke (good) because it's undemocratic but it could piss a lot of Labour voters who I reckon sat out the Euro elections.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/28/remainers-eu-elections-second-brexit-referendum?__twitter_impression=true

Lol:

"Labour needs to renew, rethink and gird up for a wholehearted challenge to the dark forces pushing for no deal. Unlike the last referendum’s half-hearted efforts, next time Labour needs to detribalise and share comradely platforms with all other remainers – just as many such as David Lammy have at every remain rally, embracing the full gamut, from Michael Heseltine and Vince Cable to Caroline Lucas and Nicola Sturgeon."

gr8 analysis, Farage has already given up after reading it .. and quelle surprise "The main culprit, of course, is Jeremy Corbyn and the immoveable ideologes around him." lol fucking clown.

glad to see somebody "won"

Can't give these people an inch.

From my Euro-election post vote poll: 53% of 2017 Conservatives who turned out on Thursday switched to the Brexit Party; 12% went to the Lib Dems. Only 21% stayed with the Tories.

38% of 2017 Labour voters stayed with Labour. 22% went to the Lib Dems, 17% Green, 13% Brexit. pic.twitter.com/LU0F7u7aFa

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 27, 2019

Yeah I know it's Ashcroft but it strikes me that the complete collapse of the Remain Tory vote has gone largely ignored. The LibDems got almost as many votes from the Tories as they got from Labour.

Xpost - when a sizeable chunk of the electorate is saying "don't take us for granted" it strikes me as a little on the complacent side to assume they'll return to the fold in a GE and carry on as normal. If you chose not to do something because a few pricks also wanted you to do it you'd never get anything done.

Oh god that Toynbee article, associating with Heseltine is supposed to help how exactly?

You need different Remain campaigns for different voter groups not one big banal happy clappy coalition that alienates as many people as it attracts.

Remain and reform us going to be the new "we won't cut as far and as fast as the Tories".

yep. even if Corbyn completely deferred to Watson on 2nd Ref, it wouldn't be enough for these continuity tory-lite cunts.

The whole thread (has that Ashcroft chart) is good.

Narrative is mostly about Labour bleeding Remainer support and Tories bleeding Brexiteers support. But Brexit Party is only slightly (5%) up on Ukip vote from 2014, which doesn't account for the Tories being down 14%...

— Jon Stone (@joncstone) May 27, 2019

Thing is a lot of the crowd that voted Corbyn in 2017 held their nose at the time. It's a coalition.

If Tories go hard Brexit at the next election they will have to vote Labour to have a chance of stopping this, so..

I’m unsure about the viability of the holding-their-nose crowd’s argument or why they think they’re so uniquely special - i wasn’t particularly enthused voting labour in 2015 but look at the alternatives. Voting for the least worst option is what we all have to do.

The corresponding argument, that people felt safe voting Labour knowing they couldn’t win, wasn’t borne out in reality, in fact it was the exact opposite: https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/did-people-vote-for-jeremy-corbyn-because-they-thought-he-would-lose/
(Love the cameo from Joan Ryan in there, lol)

Also:

Exclusive:

Michael Gove would allow 3 million EU nationals living in the UK at the time of the referendum British citizenship at no cost, in order to heal Brexit divisions if he becomes Prime Minister, Sky News can confirm https://t.co/UvG18BNVAG

— Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) May 27, 2019

Remain and reform us going to be the new "we won't cut as far and as fast as the Tories".

"We won't cut as far and fast as the Tories" was a watered-down version of Tory policy, remain and reform would be the opposite of it.

Corbyn outperformed Miliband because he was offering clear blue water between Labour and Tory policies, not a slightly nicer version of their policies. "A Brexit that protects jobs..." is closer to a Miliband fudge.

It would be hasty to commit to a course too quickly, but the Tory leadership contest gives Labour an opportunity to recast its position, and to an extent that will depend on who wins.

I still don't really know what you think should be done here, just various flavours of what shouldn't.

There probably are 3m people who'd want to take the citizenship soup? I mean, I guess as an Irish person we're given almost instantaneous rights here as soon as we're paying taxes so it never seems necessary, but presumably if it was become a citizen or risk being kicked out (is this the real implication of Gove's offer?) then a lot of people would sign up, or be more desperate to do so.

Not all countries offer dual citizenship though. I know the Netherlands doesn’t.

Matt - one other thing that shouldn't be done is panic after a protest vote

Yeah not sure on that side. I did see a few people I'm vaguely acquainted with posting on social media about getting citizenship in the last few years, guess it depends on circumstances. None of them were Irish tho.

xpost

I was also on CH reading about the EU elections and a large number of the comments were about how EU (and esp Irish) citizens shouldn’t be allowed to vote here under any circumstances - never mind that this is a reciprocal right - and people should take British citizenship if they want these rights. So in three years we’ve gone from EU citizens can stay to “take their rights away unless they swear loyalty to the queen”. Cool!