Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

Corbyn hasn't changed his line at all (the tweet is saying it's a shift but if it's that just look at the quote)

Most signif news of the night for Labour, @jeremycorbyn says: "With the Conservatives disintegrating and unable to govern, and parliament deadlocked, this issue will have to go back to the people" - via either an election or a referendum.https://t.co/O2Ie0WmI96

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 26, 2019

Sorry garbled don't look at Paul Waugh's brain-dead tweet just the quote.

Basically Brexit Party (as has been shown in some of the polling) would take seats off Tories and be good for Labour.

so yeah, extrapolating too credulously is dumb but on the other hand...is it implausible to think Farage couldn't take... 10% of Tory seats in a GE? especially if the Tories don't choose Boris? I don't really have a handle

Not to harp on about this, but when Theresa May became Prime Minister, an overwhelming majority of people thought we should have a negotiated Brexit.

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) May 26, 2019

depressing

They will split the Tory vote...unless the new Tory leader offers some sort of incentive for them to go away.
― gyac,

Ok yea, makes sense but how does this manifest. Splitting the vote in seat a) so Labour or LDs get in, or splitting the vote in seat b) where Labour is weak, and letting Brexit party get in - and once/if they have a few seats? And what if in seat a) Labour vote is also split, some to Brexit, some to LDs, not even large amounts. Enough to let them in - how many seats is this possible in? 3? 15? 50? 0?

I’m sure that if Brexit Party wins seats at Westminster it will go into coalition with the Tories - seeing as so many of the right flit from Brexit/UKIP to Tory (as in 2017).

have to admire the brass here

The case for a #PeoplesVote with the option to remain is now unequivocal. Anti-Brexit parties beat Pro-Brexit parties by over 5%. This national election sent a clear message. Put it back to the people now! #EuropeanElectionResults pic.twitter.com/ld14Kqxiig

— Layla Moran 🔶 (@LaylaMoran) May 27, 2019

Not disagreeing with calzino's post upthread, but 40% turnout is a new high for the UK in EU elections.

Farage is demanding a seat at the negotiating table opposite the EU - he's a vain little fucker, possibly that and a knighthood would do him.

To counter Claire Fox gloom Magid got in as MEP

Totally explains why Greens came second in the People’s Republic Of South Yorkshire.

Oh good Martin Daubney MEP as well.

that’s as may be. labour’s policy is formed democratically by conference though - not by the whims of the corbyn whisperer. this idea that policy is being held hostage by “lexit cranks” is conspiracist nonsense

To an extent yes, but given a fully free hand the conference wouldn't have voted for the policy in its current form, its an awkward fudge between the membership and the leadership, and indeed between different factions of the leadership. The point was to give an impression of unity and allow different groups of voters to see what they wanted to see in it. In the end the answer was 'not much' - my guess is that most people who voted Labour voted for them despite their Brexit policy rather than because of it.

The difference is that in the meantime the Brexit middle-ground has collapsed. Regardless of parliamentary arithmetic, it looks like the parties and their voters are going to pull further apart, it's either Hard Brexit or Full Remain. Seems increasingly hard to imagine any kind of negotiated middle ground or soft Brexit being able to hold enough voters for long.

But the Parliamentary arithmetic hasn't gone away either - the Tories are going to do everything they can to avoid an election now, the CHUKs won't break the government, it just deepens the deadlock further. In the meanwhile the Tories will pivot to Hard Brexit under a new leader in desperation - that offers Labour an opportunity to evolve their policy position into something that actually makes sense to people.

A new Tory leader, bogged down by the exact same issues as May, could go hard Brexit and call an election early. We'll find out shortly. They are far more screwed than Labour this morning. Farage really fucking the Tories is funny on one level.

I think Labour has to account for the fact of low turnout and that there will be much wider policy field whenever the next election is held. The unknown are the conditions at which it is held, and when. Today is noisy, tomorrow less so - time for cool heads.

I would like to to think that the Labour left can offer better than 'Reform and Remain' as a platform.

you are the coup.

— Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) May 27, 2019

Mommy and daddy are fighting

Labour performed badly this time round because they failed to learn the lessons of the last few elections:

- They didn't learn the lesson of 2015, which is do not under any circumstances be seen to be working with the Tories. It killed Scottish Labour, it killed the LibDems for a long time, reaching across the aisle was the last straw for some of the younger, broadly pro-Corbyn voters I know, who went Green instead. Corbyn was right to refuse to do so the first time, and it'll be impossible to do so with whoever the new Tory leader is. The difference is it killed the Tories even worse this time round, British politics doesn't reward bipartisanship.

- They didn't learn the lesson of their own strong performance in 2017, which showed the importance of crystal clear policy positions, the opposite of what they had in 2015 and in 2019. One of the problems with trying to be all things to all people is you end up not meaning much to anyone, that's what ultimately broke New Labour. It became obvious Ed Miliband wouldn't win when the message became "our cuts are better than your cuts". "Our Brexit is better than your Brexit" is much the same, it pleases no one.

- They didn't learn the lesson of both elections, which is don't over-rely on the toxicity of your opponents, especially the LibDems this time round. I'm not going to be stupid enough to make any predictions about the next GE, but Labour need to be very alert to the possibility of toxiying themselves with enough of the electorate to cost them clear seats. One reason they outperformed expectations in 2017 was that the LibDem vote didn't rebound - essentially Labour hoovered up the anti-Brexit voters who wanted to give May's Tories a kicking - but they also hoovered up the Green vote as well. That enabled them to win a number of surprising seats and that vote peeling off next time could lose them a few as well.

Obviously the main difference is the complete collapse of the Tories this time, we all know what they're going to do next. I'm not saying a pivot to full support for a 2nd Referendum is a magic bullet for Labour, but it's hard to see any other option working better for them right now.

I would like to to think that the Labour left can offer better than 'Reform and Remain' as a platform.

You have to actually state what this would be though. 'Remain and Rebuild Britain' is the best I can think of, very difficult to see any variant of Lexit washing with enough of the electorate.

The problem that won't go away is the Brexit party's very strong performance in the Midlands, where are a lot of the marginals are. They'll have to calculate whether it will be worse for the Tories in those seats.

Not disagreeing with calzino's post upthread, but 40% turnout is a new high for the UK in EU elections.

It would be if the turnout was 40%, in fact it was 'just below 37%', that's 14% lower than the average across the EU.

Second highest ever - 2004 was higher - a whopping 2% higher than 2014.

Fuck a 2nd ref until anyone in favour of one can outline what strategy they’ll take to avoid losing, and what’ll happen in the event they lose again. Labour should just say fuck it and go for Revoke - and appeal to voters by promising that they won’t be hearing about Brexit for decades to come. Voters want their hospitals staffed and schools funded and Brexit has sucked the policy oxygen out of the room for so long.

So much for UK electorate being energized like never before to vote in EU elections.

Sorry Matt you are taking far too much from this. I think some people did want to give Labour a kicking for the triangulation on this one policy area they actually went into in 2017, in the one election where that line was going to be exposed.

oops, I was quoting 40% from someone on R4 who was conveniently rounding it up a few%

Lol 2nd ref as a policy after last night and the way some of the Remainers acted in this campaign.

Turnout was still low, the people who did turn out were sending a message, it depends on which voters were sending it where and how likely they are to return to the two main parties in a GE if there's no change of direction.

Labour should just say fuck it and go for Revoke - and appeal to voters by promising that they won’t be hearing about Brexit for decades to come. Voters want their hospitals staffed and schools funded and Brexit has sucked the policy oxygen out of the room for so long.

Idly wondering whether this would work or whether it would be a disaster. As always the problem with a 2nd referendum is the people who would be taking the most prominent roles in the Remain campaign.

Turnout was higher in Remain areas, as usual.

the one excellent thing abt this result is that it fully confirms everything i already believed and shatters the illusions of those clowns who disagree with me :|

The rise in turnout seems to have been down to increases in Remain voting areas, is what I meant to say. (xp)

Though the increases were hardly startling.

I think some people did want to give Labour a kicking for the triangulation on this one policy area they actually went into in 2017, in the one election where that line was going to be exposed.

One of the reasons Labour did well in the last GE was they kept throwing things onto the agenda that the Tories were ill-positioned to deal with, they made that campaign about everything *except* Brexit, when the Tories kept banging on about Brexit and whatever turd of a social care policy they'd dreamed up that day. It was a very very good trick but it might not necessarily be repeatable.

Nevertheless, holding their nerve might be still a route to Downing Street for Labour, very difficult to see how they can deliver their own form of Brexit while also staying there for long.

Idly wondering whether this would work or whether it would be a disaster. As always the problem with a 2nd referendum is the people who would be taking the most prominent roles in the Remain campaign.

Its risky, but much less risky than second referendum I think. Have voters choose on a whole package instead of letting one thing get split off. If you split it off you have to campaign purely on EU instead of everything. Message along the lines of "fuck it, can't be arsed with it, lets sack it off and save the nhs and some job security eh lads?"

Hahahaha some good news is that the Yax lost his deposit in the NW, all that milkshake spend was well worth it.

ruth davidson took a doing too

casually not mentioning SLAB performance here

simon jenkins says HULLO:

The EU election changes nothing. May’s deal is still the only way forward | Simon Jenkins https://t.co/DdiinR8prY

— The Guardian (@guardian) May 27, 2019

I honestly can't remember BBC radio coverage of Local Elections and EU elections being so Talk Sport in style as the last two. Redd Pepper voiceover: The electorate isn't here to chew bubblegum anymore.. [car crashes into boxes ...fireball] .. and now the next result from Stalybridge is really going to throw the cat among the pigeons.. .

time to throw yr hat in the ring as a stalking horse calz, it's the last-chance saloon

I'm calling for your resignation as well. If people actively obstruct the leader, brief against him, refuse to enact decisions they are not doing their jobs - and how can we have a party chair who breaks the whip?

— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) May 27, 2019

people actively obstructing the leader... briefing against him... refusing to enact decisions... not doing their jobs? I agree - they should go. PM going off on one this am

lot of merit in matt’s analysis above - what’s needed now are cool heads, membership discussion and a review of the party’s policy calibration. let’s not forget the tories are on the event horizon of an extinction level event

Which seat was Ruth Davidson up for again?

here’s the conservative’s election material in scotland

@RuthDavidsonMSP has written to voters about the European elections on 23 May - mentions independence or a new referendum 15 times. Brexit? Just once - because @NicolaSturgeon believes it justifies independence. The European parliament? Nada. pic.twitter.com/sBApW3SeBv

— Severin Carrell (@severincarrell) May 8, 2019

No I agree, she's good at her job. And, tomorrow, that'll be recycling and the Scottish Tory party will still have 25% of all the Tory MEPs.

A humiliated Tommy Robinson declared he “wants a second vote” in a bizarre video posted from his bed after he failed to secure a seat in the European Parliament.

In the clip, which is believed to have been posted on the Telegram private messaging app, the independent MEP candidate described himself as “dead to the world”.

He said: “I don’t accept the result of the election. I want a second vote.”

He went on to claim “people had been lied to” before saying “I want to do it again”.

who'd have thought Yack was such a 2ndRefvote stan, the ppl have voted accept the result buddy:p

Nice to see at least still half of Labour MEPs are women. The Brexit party have 8 out of 28 - Tory levels!

Noodle, Tom d and caek otm with their turnout predictions up thread. Most of the electorate STILL doesn't really give AF about Europe despite/ because of 3 years of this relentless nonsense. Most people don't feel 'betrayed' that we haven' t left yet nor are they desperate for a 2nd ref despite the fact that most of the media pushes the narrative that the entire UK is split between these two perspectives.

5 million votes for the hard Brexit party wow maybe they should start a petition.

(xp) Upthread I did report a conversation in my work with a woman who didn't even know such a thing as a European Parliament existed.

Obviously she'd heard of Brexit though!

ugh facebook today is a wasteland of ppl i am fond of for work reasons reposting garbage nonsense* complete with their own hot-voiced psephological conclusions

*aka stuff in the guardian** mainly >:(
**it is not getting worse ftb it's always been very terrible

Hard Remain + moral panic, law and order discourse, how could this go catastrophically wrong????? Fucking hell Paul. pic.twitter.com/T4B9B9M8yO

— Tom Gann (@Tom_Gann) May 27, 2019

All of Mason's tweeting in the last few weeks => Corbyn won't return my calls.

Yup, mark s, sharing those feels re: FB melt dude post-mortems - and they’re all baying for Milne’s head
etc etc on Twitter.

not even melts really, just good-hearted despairing ppl very alarmed bcz plugged into routinely bad analysis :(