Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

centrism's a hell of a drug

I suppose there is an argument that Labour is in danger of haemorrhaging Remain voters next week and tbh I think it's a fairly credible one.

Suspect he's trying to stem the tide, take the credit and then claim he's forced the leadership to change the direction. It's cynical for all the obvious reasons but it's also naive because he should know he's too divisive and untrustworthy a figure and if anyone's going to get the credit for a putative change in direction it'll probably be Starmer.

Cuts both ways. Labour aren't losing as many votes as the Tories according to polls, so is that because of their ambiguous position as a party that some leavers and remainers and ppl in between (ref vote respecter logs online) can vote for?

I put in my postal ballot. Lol and all that.

'Doing better than the Tories' is likely to be a really low bar, though.

Labour aren't losing as many votes as the Tories because the Tories' standing has been artificially inflated by Brexit and that bubble has well and truly burst.

Labour's position at the last election was also boosted at least in part by voters who wanted to give the Tories a kicking for Brexit. Their own Brexit position could still cost them several marginals (including seats they narrowly won last time) and tip the balance in an election. I don't think anyone seriously believes the fence sitting is helping them because no one who voted Leave really believes Labour is a Brexit party anyway.

Obviously Labour's first priority is a general election but there isn't a snowball in hell's chance of one right now because the Tories' own polling is in the toilet and there aren't enough Parliamentary votes to topple them in a VONC. So at what point does Labour admit it can't force an election and change course?

But there aren't enough Parliamentary votes for a second referendum OR any form of Brexit that Labour and the Tories could agree on because the backbench rebellion on both sides would be almost guaranteed to torpedo it. Especially if rebels are emdoldened by this month's election results. A soft Brexit deal ratified by a confirmatory referendum might get through but May is implacably opposed.

All this month's noise does is entrench the stalemate. Meanwhile the clock is ticking again.

They are losing plenty of votes - though we don't know if it's Remainers switching to the Lib Dems or Leavers to the Brexit Party.

I imagine the Lib Dems are picking up a lot of Soft Tory Remainers.

No doubt a 30-odd percent turnout for the EU elections will really shed some light on things

Going "yeah but the turnout" feels like a copout at this stage even if it's true. The turnout could also be low at a GE.

In any case it is complete pie in the sky fantasy land for anyone to seriously believe that a Labour government would be capable of getting its own Brexit deal through Parliament without a big majority and even then it could be tough. Better to ditch the fantasy now rather than be undone by it later.

And of course the longer this tedious dance goes on the worse it is for millions of people's job prospects.

I’m not sure there’s a convincing majority either in parliament or with the general public for anything.

I haven’t sorted out a postal vote so I guess I’m not voting (I blame this equally on my complete despair & my suspicion of postal voting in general ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ )

Turnout was 43% in 2014 and that was enough to spook Cameron into setting us on the course we're now on. It clearly makes a difference and it sure as hell will to the Tories.

Very hard to believe it won't be higher this time round with the debate so inflamed.

If a low turnout can't be used to critique the election results then i guess we'll be enjoying a lot more "will of the people" talk. You'd think whatever numbers the Brexit Party gets will represent more or less the full extent of hardcore Brexitry, but if the same can be applied to LD and Chukwalla votes combined then what conclusion could we draw? About an equal minority on both sides of the question and a majority that doesn't give that much of a fuck and are therefore unlikely to make it a deciding factor in any future general election

not liking this lib dem/brexit party binary. if only there was a party who wanted to end austerity, save the world and stand explicitly against brexit as a sort of cherry on top

Still think it's in the best interests of the Labour Party not to be holding the parcel when the music stops but i'm almost up for them becoming the official Remain party just to fuck off the Tony Robinsons and end this phony war

It would piss on a lot of disingenuous centrist bonfires, that much is true.

It's no phony war, tories will always be tories.

Turnout was 43% in 2014 and that was enough to spook Cameron into setting us on the course we're now on. It clearly makes a difference and it sure as hell will to the Tories.

― Matt DC, Monday, 13 May 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It was 35% for the UK (the 43% was the European average). UKIP came just on top ahead of Labour.

I don't have the breakdown by region but I'm willing to bet it was low in more disengaged -- more Brexity -- areas. Maybe the turnout in those will be higher as they vote for the Brexit party.

I think going from that to saying turnout at the GE will be as low as this (when it was near 70% last time) doesn't scan to me.

From what I've seen so far - the way journalists crowd around Farage and his Brexit Party 'rallies', the utter incomptence of much of the Remain forces (Change UK but also Tom Watson style wrecking) gives you a glimpse as to what a fucking nightmare a 2nd ref would be. And this after all the issues -- Nothern Ireland the most prominent of all -- have been given plenty of air time since that result.

Thank the fucking almighty we aren't doing this!

he's been a bit of a lost cause for a while (since "stoya come to athens"?) but crikey paul mason is a full zoomer

the fence sitting may not be helping labour but it's hurting them less than the alternatives. and the conservatives are in freefall

meanwhile, there's not been a vote in the commons for a month, nigel farage is claiming parliament is conspiring against the people, the government are running on fumes with no legislative timetable, sitting under no queen's speech without the prospect of one on the horizon. not particularly great for our representative democracy

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ttqlt5zvyfr3aej/File%2014-5-19%2C%2007%2044%2005.jpeg?raw=1

From https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP14-32/RP14-32.pdf

Turnout variations probably had more to do with where there were locals on the same day.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2e/UK_council_results_2014.svg

The high water mark for the UK EU elections is 38% in 2004, FWIW - it's been pretty solidly 32-38% except for 24% in 1999 for some reason.

Sir Angus Deaton report sounds otm, unfortunate name tho.

oh he's going to take five years to conduct a study that proves that there is growing inequality in the UK. Radical!

by the time he's finished that study we'll have already died, lol.

We are all equal in the grave, my son.

"the fence sitting may not be helping labour but it's hurting them less than the alternatives"

Take this one triangulation to The Green Party offering an alternative to the Lib Dems.

"a majority that doesn't give that much of a fuck"

it has seemed to me that this characterizes the posters on this thread & its antecedents too, no? I've seen lots of "brexit doesn't really matter" posts here.

I'm struggling to think of a single instance tbh.

xyzzzz__ had a claim a few months that none of this would matter at all because the scale of the changes necessary to combat climate apocalypse would produce a blitz spirit where everyone would row in together - at the time this was welcomed because we could do with a laugh.

Who said satire was dead? There is, of course, a difference between, "Brexit doesn't matter", and "Brexit is not the only thing that matters", though both are accompanied by ennui, nausea etc.

I get annoyed with the pessimistic forecasts, like have you left your fucking windmill for a sec + seen what it is like out *there* these days? 10 years of austerity has turned much of this country into a hellscape already. And I get annoyed with Brexit being more important than all the reforms that are going to be required to reverse this damage and a paralyzed parliament that seems to have stopped voting on bills and governing these days, "there are more important matters imo" is not quite "it doesn't matter".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48229037

40 years of the rich steadily getting richer while the poor have been left to survive as best they can, tbf the EU probably did a sterling job of keeping the most marginalized alive, kind of. you can perhaps imagine my incredulity when FBPErs vehemently declare Brexit the greatest political disaster to have ever hit the UK.

i'll concede, before we go again, that Brexit will likely make this worse.

i'm sure there are a lot of people for who "hey this will make things worse" isn't the rallying call for political action you might think. it was essentially New Labour's only political message.

it has seemed to me that this characterizes the posters on this thread & its antecedents too, no? I've seen lots of "brexit doesn't really matter" posts here.

you can perhaps imagine my incredulity when FBPErs vehemently declare Brexit the greatest political disaster to have ever hit the UK.

Tbf I didn't care about brexit last time around and so didn't vote, and I still don't really care which is not to say it doesn't matter. P sure there is a lot of stuff I don't care about that matters.

xyzzzz__ had a claim a few months that none of this would matter at all because the scale of the changes necessary to combat climate apocalypse would produce a blitz spirit where everyone would row in together - at the time this was welcomed because we could do with a laugh.

― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 14 May 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Now now no need to be so bitter

ok maybe I misjudged this one, thought I'd seen a number of posts saying eh it's not a big deal. also I don't understand satire. RIP

"10 years of austerity has turned much of this country into a hellscape"

It's not even Thunderdome, let alone Fury Road.

both references are wasted on me, but good for you if you don't see everyday poverty and despair in your area.

xp I admire your idealism! I just don't think it's remotely likely.

I'm at least glad no-one has claimed that I think everything's okay, or would be okay if Brexit was reversed. There's a Far Side cartoon with a kid on an airplane playing with a switch labelled "Wings Stay On / Wings Fall Off" - Brexit is the closest thing to that, one decision which would make things markedly worse*, so of course it'll be a focus.

*"Tories win massively in snap election" would I grant you be worse.

Anyway, healing touch:

A bus! It’s a real election now pic.twitter.com/xIfF284zzL

— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) May 13, 2019

A friend points out that it looks like a website where the CSS hasn't loaded.

are you picking this up on the doorstep @wesstreeting? dickhead. https://t.co/1flvmKrfNh

— joe (@cillanoir) May 14, 2019

Wes never hears anyone praising good ol' constructive ambiguity on the doorsteps, but it is holding up in the polls.

Not sure what you are talking re: idealism. I really don't care for that thanks. I have pointed out that Brexit is one of a number of issues, and yes I think climate change is a bigger issue and the EU isn't up to scratch at doing anything about it.

OTOH people here are downgrading austerity as a thing by saying it isn't like Mad fucking Max. So hellscape isn't 100k deaths due to austerity. Just because bin collection happens it's fine.

bin collection has never been good - dunno where you live like.

I know Spanish austerity has been tougher. Or is it Irish? #EUInTheBin

london!

dunno anyone who hasn't had problems with it, council cuts i guess.

You're right of course, xyzzzz__, optimism was the word I was looking for - optimism that anything short of the last trump will cause the UK to come up to scratch.

calz, that's Labour up 10 points on yesterday!

(but after the last GE everyone including myself is free to read everything into the tea leaves of every different poll)