Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

glad to see serial sex pest John Woodcock is on the right side of the Assange argument.

xp tag me I'm a teenyweeny "great"

I'm the "OK" person.

it me, ‘shit’

oh it's about brexit. I thought it was that qualities + accomplishments of New Labour wallpaper that Marsan has on twitter!

I know I get a reasonable amount of shite for following conhome, but what are you doing with your life that you know that, calz?

not been there in months, honest! But often when he posts something a bit thick a screen cap of it inevitably pops up on my feed.

too late!

Far right & far left factions have taken over the main political parties in the UK, facilitating Brexit & spreading xenophobia, islamophobia & anti-Semitism. I refuse to let them define my country, that’s why I support the ⁦@Tig_England⁩/Change UK https://t.co/61PLczlMp2

— Eddie Marsan (@eddiemarsan) March 30, 2019

fucking ouch at those CON numbers

Voting intention for UK House of Commons, @YouGov, 10-11 April (changes since GE17):

Lab 32% (-9)
Con 28% (-16)
LD 11% (+3)
Brexit 8% (+8)
UKIP 6% (+4)
SNP 5% (+2)
Grn 5% (+3)
ChUK 3% (+3)

My seat estimate
Lab 294 (+32)
Con 253 (-63)
SNP 51 (+16)
LD 28 (+16)
Oth 24 (-)

— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) April 13, 2019

Farage's brexit + only ever so slightly racist millionaires party is showing CHUK how it is done.

Marsan's tweet = why democracy is bad, not good

good thread, except it’s not unbelievable really. continuity_remain’s ineptitude hasn’t been apparent for the past few years

It is absolutely unbelievable that there hasn’t been great organisation and planning from remain forces and greater organisation from the remain side. It was obvious they would happen; real complacency. Farage and his team have been planning this for months.

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) April 13, 2019

has*

counterpart

1/5 A short thread on the marked difference in branding success of two newly launched political parties:
• Brexit Party (very successful)
• Change UK (absolutely woeful)

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 13, 2019

"It is absolutely unbelievable" cue very believable set of posts from FBPEeps

I mean if you believe this is an economic catastrophe then framing it as a culture war is just endlessly self defeating but it's almost as if people don't recognise their own prejudices

Note to self to just stop reading

rare example of the inverse ratio here, where people pile on a tweet to express support for the tweeter

On my Roger Scruton interview — I stand by the accuracy of my interview but apologise for my social media conduct. https://t.co/vhFog9eL28

— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) April 12, 2019

When Scruton’s resignation was announced by the government, I subsequently posted a photograph of myself on my personal Instagram account drinking champagne in celebration.

George Eaton turns woke.

I mean, you've got to laugh really, haven't you? pic.twitter.com/V83taejVaC

— David Timoney (@fromarsetoelbow) April 13, 2019

Lighting in the Andrew Marr studio giving UKIP leader Gerald or Gerard (whatever) Batten a small moustache which, combined with his dyed dark hair, is having a most unfortunate effect.

Are those actually inconsistent with one another? The fact that the Tories have lost almost twice as many polling points as Labour suggests they've got a lot more to lose from being seen to "betray Brexit" than Labour does. Difficult to see where the Labour Remain vote would go instead, but they might lose seats they won surprisingly last time - eg Kensington & Chelsea, Canterbury etc.

Counter-intuitively though a major swing in Leave-voting marginals in eg the Midlands could actually help Labour. Difficult to know without more data but there's the chance of flood of Tory votes going to the Brexit Party while the Remain vote (still around 40% in most places) sticks with Labour. No full-throttle Brexiter is under any illusions that Labour is an anti-EU party really and wouldn't have voted for them last time around anyway. (This is separate from people who happened to vote Leave but don't care about it enough to let it swing their vote when other concerns are taken into account).

(xpost - they did that with Rees-Mogg a few weeks ago. Someone in the lighting department has clearly discovered that trick and is having some fun with it).

The George Eaton thing is a MESS, particularly as he posted one of the quotes (about Chinese people) in a slightly abridged format which gave every shrieking racist on the internet licence to claim that Scruton was being misquoted.

Ofc the other quotes don’t seem to trouble these cunts too much.

The editor of the NS, Jason Cowley, has retweeted pieces supporting Scruton.

Nothing particularly to base it on so my take may be wrong, but it 'feels' like the fervour of the Leave vote is declining? Maybe only since Jan/Feb, but on the flipside should the 'Remain Vote' really want a second referendum? Both of these things depend n shifting numbers, in both intensity and direction. Up until the turn of the year it fel like that hadn't happened, but now?

Those numbers are YouGov? ok if YouGov are reporting numbers like that for Tories the trouble is real

the latest hysterical push for Corbyn to campaign for Ref 2 also *feels* like Clunge.UK and their Blairite media pals having another sally over the top rather than anything reflecting actual swells of public opinion tbh

Just by reading those headlines you'd think that yes the Tory collapse would more than make-up for Labour losing a few seats that they never expected to win in the first place like Kensington & Chelsea. At the moment the likes CUK aren't providing that place for Labour Remainer voters to go to, and they won't because there is just no fucking substance to them, and it won't be coming from Heidi Allen.

Following on from mark's post (and just making a note for myself without thinking about it further) a MAKE IT STOP message might be a good thing for Labour to crack on with when campaigning at the next election.

xp = that Eaton photo must be hilarious. What a way to act..

This isn’t my feeling at all, particularly with about 25% of people polled favouring No Deal and with the reception of the Brexit party. Leave is a lot more organised and has that stabbed in the back narrative just waiting to be rolled out.

Nothing particularly to base it on so my take may be wrong, but it 'feels' like the fervour of the Leave vote is declining?

You said it, nothing particularly to base it on.

some absolutely cringe-worthy contributions to that program on dead Hitchens last night, but omg that was the cringiest I've heard Blair since his "princess of farts" moment (tbf he doesn't have any other setting). P Hitchens is defending Scruton today as well, no doubt running out the old Tory Blairites aren't conservatives, they are marxists bollox that he is fond of.

JC is I suspect a fairly clubbable guy but, to put mildly, not an especially deep political thinker with some fairly naive ideas around journalistic pluralism. GE's mistake was to appear too nakedly partisan, I'd guess there have been a couple of very unpleasant editorial meetings of late, but if you polled the NS's readership you'd probably find a lot more support for GE's position than JC's. (I bet that Scruton piece did mad numbers and drove a few subscriptions as well.)

Truncating the quotes was just dumb and counterproductive, an easy way to let some reprehensible people score a quick political point.

Brexit Party is on 8% and I suspect the fervour of the ultras is as strong as it ever was but they have always drowned out wider Leave voters and claimed to speak for them. There's clearly a moderate decline in wider Brexit support but not perhaps as big as it's cracked up to be.

Following on from mark's post (and just making a note for myself without thinking about it further) a MAKE IT STOP message might be a good thing for Labour to crack on with when campaigning at the next election.

This is a landslide-winning electoral message.

P Hitch is good not bad until the point where he defends Scroton

tbf i guess a lot of the Leave massive are currently in seething resentment mode which might give some public appearance of being quieter. i think Farage has made a big tactical mistake thru vanity and greed - he wd've been better calling for a mass boycott of the EU elections because a) far easier *and cheaper* to achieve than a swell of votes, and to achieve the appearance of in a low turnout, b) does more to delegitimize a process which is already likely to look pretty pointless if the UK is still set to leave before the year's out.

but he craves attention so cheers, Nige.

just to be clear my argument was that its landslide-winningness -- which i very much acknowledge -- arrives i think with a large sub-surface helping of unicorn-ness (in re whichever unicorn is most relevant to yr specific political hopes & fears): even if a party wins on a MAKE IT STOP platform it is not i believe going to stop and this will very much get in the way of whatever said party wishes to enact of a non-brexit nature

p hitch on marxism is always silly nonsense but i very much blame growing up with the once-loudly-marxist older brother he suffered under: who certainly bullied him -- if only verbally* -- and greatly distorted his perspective

*i bet not just verbally tho

You said it, nothing particularly to base it on.

― Do you like 70s hard rock with a guitar hero? (Tom D.),

Definitely - posting really to gauge what anyone else though

I suspect the fervour of the ultras is as strong as it ever was but they have always drowned out wider Leave voters and claimed to speak for them. There's clearly a moderate decline in wider Brexit support but not perhaps as big as it's cracked up to be.

This is what I'm thinking and trying to unravel. Thing is, even within this, the people who voted leave (or remain!) but actually dont really GAF and being treated like this is their strongest view

Thing is, even within this, the people who voted leave (or remain!) but actually dont really GAF and being treated like this is their strongest view

Ding ding ding!

this whole sorry mess is because the 60-odd percent of the electorate who don't really GAF got coralled into Taking A Side

Speaking as a lifelong non-bully, I would probably bully p hitch if he was my little brother.

my older brother was a horrible fucker as well, but he helped come to terms with the idea of a cruel and brutal, godless universe!

People just want to get on with their lives and it's harder to do that when Brexit is taking up all the political attention while schools, hospitals, job prospects get worse and worse. I think there's real political potency in that message but a senior political would need to be brave enough to actually try it.

To be a fly on the wall of New Statesman’s next editorial conference pic.twitter.com/ZeuDmNoYN9

— Mark Di Stefano 🤙🏻 (@MarkDiStef) April 12, 2019

Eaton otm, anybody espousing the least sympathy for Scroton is clearly acting the cunt

100%

v generous of you to allow for acting

trying to keep it mellow

wtf is margaret hodge all about

she could do with a cup of mellow.

She's all about denying child abuse in council care, calling one of its victims "extremely disturbed" and having to pay him 30K as a result.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DiZKBdMWAAAH9QJ.jpg

People just want to get on with their lives and it's harder to do that when Brexit is taking up all the political attention while schools, hospitals, job prospects get worse and worse. I think there's real political potency in that message but a senior political would need to be brave enough to actually try it.

I understand that Corbyn tries this a lot of weeks at PMQ - he gets a lot of "OHHH he's missed a sitter there", but I think it would be doing him a lot of good in an alternative universe where more than 50 people watched PMQ.