2020 Democratic presidential primary

Yeah, but $2500 in 1950s money is basically a lottery jackpot today.

$2500 in 1950 is about $26000 today.

I love the Gravel teens.

lol on Chapo they were speculating that this was an elder abuse situation

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s (D) strong media buzz appears to be translating into growing support in key early-voting states, according to a pair of polls released Thursday.

According to two new surveys, Buttigieg has climbed into third place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, trailing only Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Monmouth University’s survey of Iowa caucusgoers found Biden leading the field in Iowa with 27% support, Sanders at 16% and Buttigieg with nine percent — a notable rise given how few voters know about him at this point. They were followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) at seven percent apiece, and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) at six percent, with the other candidates below five percent support.

the NH poll:

St. Anselm College found similar results in a New Hampshire poll released Thursday morning, with Biden leading the field at 23% support , Sanders at 16%, and Buttigieg in third place with 11% support. Warren was at nine percent, Harris at seven percent, O’Rourke at six percent, and the rest of the field didn’t top five percent support.

a Democrat in his 70s on my FB feed says Buttigieg is "fresher" than Biden

being mushy and/or quiet on policy not hurting him

So is Mayor Pete the Emilio Estevez character or more of an Ally Sheedy?

Iowa and New Hampshire voters rise up as one and say "Literally anyone with a pink penis will be fine with us!"

can't stay off the white man's dick long enough to get anything material done.

betomania, we hardly knew ye

in fairness the biden vote is surely largely an expression of the sentiment "i wish obama was still president"

neolib-loving chumps gettin' chumpier

idk - is there really a Biden vote?

I know he's doing well in the polls, but is it any more than name recognition from phone calls? Doesn't seem feasible that lead has got any longevity in it whatsoever

I think a lot of online people are underestimating Biden's chances (if he actually runs).

You look at a poll showing Biden at 27% and say "frontrunner," I look at 100% name recognition and see 73% of voters willing to shop around.

In April 2015, pollsters had Clinton in the 60s in Iowa. https://t.co/syAwgO214j

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) April 11, 2019

Now 2016 was a 2 horse race and this is not, but he has a point.

xpost -- I worry about it too. No matter how much of an absolute tone-deaf centrist doofus Biden is, I think with this election more than most there's going to be such a powerful groundswell of support for Restoring Norms above all else. That's not to say a candidate who can really inspire people can't triumph or that Biden can't shoot himself in the dick enough times to counteract that Obama-adjacent magic, because both of those things are very possible, I just think there's a real sizable contingent of Dem voters out there who just want to wake up from the Trump nightmare and don't really care nearly as much about anything else.

and hence doom us in the long run

Thats definitely true, but that doesn't happen by itself, that needs media support. Kamala or Beto seem more likely for that surely?

Biden would be a very literal embodiment of returning to the pre-Trump era, while those two aren't

Not sure why we'd expect the media to specifically boost them and not Biden.

The thing that haunts me with Biden is when my Indian American, MSNBC-watching mother-in-law told me how much she "likes" him without saying anything about his politics. Obviously not much of a data point, but I flash back to it whenever these polls come out.

I think I already mentioned my shock when my sister-in-law told me she was hoping for a Biden/Beto ticket.

This is the thing, once he starts having to speak, he'll surely fade, the energy isn't there. Also, doesn't he run every time and the same thing happens. Front runner then fades?

I mean, hopefully you are right, but it's a big assumption right now.

run Joe run, and bury your generation of invertebrates

Polls this early mean next to nothing.

As for Biden, at least he has competition for the voters who want safety, reassurance and calm... packaged as a white man. I think he'll fade away, largely because as a campaigner he is vapid at best and notoriously error prone, but not as quickly as he should. He still might be the last white man standing by next April.

I think Beto is a flash in the pan, fool's gold who'll be exposed as such. The grueling length of a national campaign is at least good for weeding out that kind of pretender.

Buttigieg has easily the longest road to travel if he's going to claim the mantle of The Middle Man. He has excellent campaigning chops for attracting white, college-educated middle-class voters, along with some crossover appeal to other groups, such as youth, women. He's clearly the dark horse who could surprise everyone by a strong showing in Iowa & NH, then making it to the convention with a good bloc of delegates and be a real force. I greatly doubt his ceiling is high enough to be the nominee.

Do those numbers actually show a lot of Sanders voters moving to Buttigieg? I thought Sanders was polling closer to Biden earlier?

dunno but I'm a 2016 Sanders primary voter who will most likely be voting for Buttigieg this time around.

do you not worry about his prioritization of "philosophy" (or vague mush) over policy positions?

yeah akm what gives

When you can pin down something resembling an actual political ideology to Buttigieg, it's not good so he's probably start to keep up the vagueness as long as possible.

feel like mayor pete could either blow up big or fade substantially once it's a matter of debates, or any other forum where any other candidate can land a "where's the beef?" or christie-vs-rubio-style punch. like...ok, yes, there are tons of people who are not going to be bothered at all by the centrist vacuity behind the fresh face, but there are going to be other people projecting more substantive hopes and excitements onto him and they will be able to see that image deflate when a bernie or warren is hammering him: what, sir, IS your actual commitment when it comes to everyone getting health care?...

likely a more telegenic Paul Tsongas

Mayor Pete seems pretty smart and thoughtful and could be pushed left but he also seems to actually believe what he says about wanting to unite the country and we just don’t have time to waste on that shit any more.

that's a good point

let's not unite with the third of the country that wants to kill us all

as someone who was born and raised in a red state and now lives in an even redder state, i do sincerely wish that that 1/3 would see the light somehow.

Elizabeth Warren: "I’m proposing a big new idea: the Real Corporate Profits Tax"

https://medium.com/@teamwarren/im-proposing-a-big-new-idea-the-real-corporate-profits-tax-29dde7c960d

Seems legit. If corporations are persons they can pay AMT.

<3 liz

Style update: https://t.co/Vs61vEBJmE pic.twitter.com/R98jpoUpIQ

— Matt Pearce 🦅 (@mattdpearce) April 12, 2019

i suspect homophonic errors are happening on side or the other of that "helpful" pronunciation guide

Buttigieg was on the Ellen Show and her followers obviously support LGBTQ personalities, so he definitely gained some extra followers after that.

It's pretty wild that her show gets over 3 million views. Her viewerships' demographics are mostly women between 25 to 54, probably the most progressive people in America (women in their 20s).

I had a great time talking with Mayor @PeteButtigieg and his husband @Chas10Buttigieg. https://t.co/q3TrMMtUFZ

— Ellen DeGeneres (@TheEllenShow) April 12, 2019

People will often be polite to you in person, while advancing policies that harm you and your family. You will be polite to them in turn, but you need not stand for such harms. Instead, you push back, honestly and emphatically. So it goes, in the public square.

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) April 9, 2019

finally, a candidate with a tweeting style more annoying than Trump's

that seems a tad hyperbolic :)

Hey it’s just the way I get by https://t.co/t2mtDxNTkl

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) April 12, 2019

still lobbying for the Soto vote I see

is he quoting bad pop lyrics?

not gonna vote for him til he busts out 'Tarkus'