Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

not if every one of cuk's mps loses their seats (as they should)

imo they're all going to run as lib dem candidates

would be able to live with the tory deserters retaining their seats tbh

o yes, i'm sure they've all seen the error of their ways

Soubz Out imo

Streatham has been Labour since 1992 and the demographics make it difficult to see Chuka retaining his seat. He could take 25% of the vote off Labour and they would still win. This is even more the case in Luciana Berger's constituency, where Labour got nearly 80% of the vote last time. Ditto Chris Leslie's constituency.

The same isn't true of Heidi Allen's seat, she could easily split the old Tory vote in her constituency and let Labour in, although there's still a sizeable LibDem vote in South Cambs which she might benefit from.

Gavin Shuker would lose Luton South. The same is true for Ann Coffey in Stockport, Mike Gapes could quite easily hand his constituency to the Tories but would be more likely to just be hammered with Labour retaining it. Angela Smith's constituency is almost certain to go Tory. Anna Soubry has a very narrow majority, so that's going Labour.

Basically, unless they can find other constituencies to represent, they're getting wiped out. Any polling figures they're showing are completely notional given we don't know their policies on anything except Brexit.

hadn't considered TIG ex-Tory seats flipping Labour but if it can be done then...good

Milk Gapes has a majority of 31k, genuinely not seeing a scenario where a Tory gets in - he’d have to a have a personal vote way beyond the realms of probability for that to happen.

Looking at anything called StatsForLefties is a one way ticket to self-delusion.

Any polling figures they're showing are completely notional given we don't know their policies on anything except Brexit.

― Matt DC,

Policies are the old hat. Only half-facetiously saying this

Some Lib Dems might outpoll some Tories, but it may well be bald men fighting over a comb - the average marginal where the Lib Dems were competitive (within 10%) in 2010, they dropped 37 points further away in 2017. I mean, that probably shrinks a little every time Theresa May says "I'm very glad to report that we agree completely with Labour on Freedom of Movement".

Policies are the old hat. Only half-facetiously saying this

Judging by what happened in the last election campaign when the two manifestos dropped, nah. It might be in the case of TIG which is essentially a political Rorschach test right now, but in general I just don't believe that.

Vince Cable:

He added that the EU could have averted Brexit altogether if it had made concessions on freedom of movement to David Cameron prior to the referendum and urged Brexit negotiators not to repeat the same mistakes.

“The lack of flexibility in dealing with Cameron over migration was the main reason we’re in this mess,” he said. “There are all kinds of de facto rather than de jure limitations on freedom of movement. Pragmatism on all sides would have helped avoid this crash. And it is going to be an awful car crash.”

Milky Gapes.... I heard that lad can down a churn in one!

xp And he'd know, in fairness.

statsforlefties account is actually really good

I still maintain that polls are stuff and nonsense until a GE cycle kicks in but posted that one for the giggles

lmao @ Cable. Lots and lots of bad takes about this stuff, but thinking that what happened with Cameron's 'negotiations' made a fuck of a difference to anything at all might just take the biscuit

sftu vince

if only the EU had been able to make common cause with the UK's frothing xenophobe community

xp And he'd know, in fairness.

Oh and polls are nonsense atm because people don’t tend to vote third party as much in important elections where the outcome is uncertain. It’s more of a risk then.

Roger Scruton says "tribes of Muslims" are entering Europe

Last last year Labour urged the government to sack the philosopher Roger Scruton as chair of a housing commission over comments about the Hungarian philanthropist George Soros which the party said veered into antisemitism.

Those calls have been repeated after, in an interview with the New Statesman, Scruton spoke again about a supposed “Soros empire” in Hungary, and defended the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, over allegations of antisemitism. Scruton said:

The Hungarians were extremely alarmed by the sudden invasion of huge tribes of Muslims from the Middle East.

Scruton also argued that Islamophobia is a propaganda word “invented by the Muslim Brotherhood in order to stop discussion of a major issue”.

He also had this to say about China:

They’re creating robots out of their own people… each Chinese person is a kind of replica of the next one and that is a very frightening thing.

Dawn Butler, Labour’s shadow women and equalities secretary, said Scruton’s comments “invoke the language of white supremacists”, and May should sack him. Butler said:

If she doesn’t, it will be further evidence that she is turning a blind eye to the deep-rooted prejudices and racist views in the Conservative Party, and will again signal that her government endorses these disgusting views.

jfc

problematic imo

Know what?

About car crashes.

I bet Scrotum doesn't lose his housing advisory role after this as well. Because apparently he is much more intellectually robust than Toby Young.

tbf Scruton's never worked in a field where semantic choices are meaningful

No10 spksman: "He's an adviser on housing so it doesn't sound like in those comments he will be speaking for the govt."

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) April 10, 2019

but labour's antisemitism tho

Repeating myself from upthread but I don't know why anyone wld be confident Ann Coffey will lose. she is v personally popular & the only non-tory to be elected in stockport for 40 years

Scruton gone.

i look forward to not reading the thinkpieces

Sir Roger Scruton gone.

i'm the opposite - i don't really know what to think until until i've read the spiked take on this!

Scruton gone. This habit of appointing self-appointed figures from the culture wars* is going really well for the tories.

*yes i know that scruton was more than that, but not in this context, or recently, or at all in that NS interview.

Scruton has gone to Chelsea.

Scruton's media persona was so noxious for so long that i have no memory of whether he ever contributed anything of worth to philosophy but my instinct says no

i think that’s probably right tbh. think we went over this before and reached the same conclusion.

his attitude towards architecture and music (and culture in general) can be boiled down to: charts have been shite since late 19th century.

Pretty much everything about this clip is Wrong and British

Here's the longer clip where she says "as prime minister" pic.twitter.com/hUtme5Mat1

— Joey D'Urso (@josephmdurso) April 10, 2019

good to hear big roger's illest bars got scrut'n chopped

Sir Roger Turrican has gone.

xps
aiui his earlier stuff presents a good-faith philosophical case for conservative aesthetics, but I only really know it from Isobel Armstrong arguing against it in The Radical Aesthetic.
Only thing I've read by him was one of those little dummy's guides to Kant, which was fine.

So No10 is basically saying if people hadn’t been so outraged about Roger Scruton’s racist comments he’d still be advising the Government. Wow. https://t.co/L8rA8rLefA

— John Prescott (@johnprescott) April 10, 2019

Warning: upsetting content in this image:

I wonder who else Scruton distracts or attracts with his prejudiced words? My pic pic.twitter.com/vJj6ZRaSxb

— Prixpics (@prixpics) April 10, 2019

I'm sure this will work out fine:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/10/government-immigration-database-deeply-sinister-say-campaigners

Hell for centrist dads, from Alasdair Gray's version of Dante's Divine Comedy. pic.twitter.com/jxYEXTGjWA

— Illogical Volume (@nearit) April 10, 2019

hearing scruton may go

Adrian Mole's headmaster?

Olivia Scruton Gone

scrut on, dudes

Todger Scrotum