Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

Amused that our conservative friends are so willing to throw out a millennium of establishing the primacy of parliament in these matter for something so young, base and foreign as democracy. The duke of Wellington must be spinning in his grave.

And besides. Absolute monarchy is so very French.

Xp this is a deeply misleading way of communicating what is basically someone guessing, but it’s in true ballpark of EU technocratic conventional wisdom afaict https://jonworth.eu/brexit-where-now-the-flow-diagrams🕸/. So in answer to your question: yes.

Looking back at the old flowcharts is a trip. We have been hard into No Deal multiple times according to many of them but someone - often May, tbf - conjures up with something not on there and we’re off down a whole new route.

Telling how often the next chart starts with some event that wasn’t even on the radar of the previous.

On that measure tomorrow Boris will schism the Tories (0.4) at long last.

Right. Backtesting those charts suggests the guy has no idea what he’s talking about. But tbf neither does anyone else.

The Tories are going to explode, aren’t they?

People have been promising this for ages, and as the only silver lining in all of this ghastly mess it is devoutly to be wished, but I'll believe it when i see it.

if someone would have told me they'd limp on for another two years as a minority gov after the last election - I might have thought about opening a vessel! But I genuinely feel a reckoning is coming for this dead, amoral shower of a party.

as long as 40-odd percent of the elective are instinctively dead and amoral i doubt it

electorate, obv

Some of that 40% are only voting for them because of Brexit, that might erode pretty quickly in the event of a long extension, as seems likely. Some of the others are only voting Tory because of Corbynfear and they can probably be relied upon to stick around for a bit.

On one hand the receding spectre of No Deal is a good thing, on the other hand, what the hell happens for the rest of this year? More uncertainty and pissing about? Does anyone actually believe this will be resolved by the end of the year?

i was thinking more of that 40-odd percent as a near constant since the UK reached its approximation of universal adult suffrage tho

admittedly the future party of selfish cunts may have a new name

it’ll go higher

New poll from @HanburyStrategy, 5-8 April. Changes since GE17.

Lab 40% (-1)
Con 31% (-13)
UKIP 8% (+6)
LD 8% (-)
Grn 5% (+3)
SNP 4% (+1)
Oth 4% (+3)

My seat estimate
Lab 320 (+58)
Con 237 (-80)
SNP 48 (+13)
LD 22 (+10)
Oth 22 (-1)

Lab 6 seats short of a majority.

— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) April 10, 2019

I'm not convinced that the spectre's receding though - if there is a long extension, has May actually said she'd go for it? She's been mostly focussed on getting the (now a) deal through in the short term, the last I heard from her about it was that a long extension would be unacceptable.

i thing we can feel assured that anything she's previously said offers no indication as to anything she might do in future

Changes since GE17.
LD 8% (-)
seat estimate
LD 22 (+10)

Vote % the same but seats up 10? That's kind of weird (but yes, technically possible).

Also weird but possible, in the new EU election intentions survey from the same Hanbury Strategy: 17% of Remain voters are "likely" or "very likely" to vote Brexit Party. I know some people have switched side and/or think we should honour the result but 17% Remainers now for Farage's No Deal party seems odd to me and not in line with any other stats I've seen.

Don't think I've heard of Hanbury Strategy before, anyone got any feelings either way about them?

That poll feels like an anomaly to me, most of the others have Labour and the Tories knocking about in the mid-30s with support for minority parties rising.

always had a lot of time for the fancy lads at hanbury strategy

Vote % the same but seats up 10? That's kind of weird (but yes, technically possible).

If the Tory vote falls then the Lib Dems are in pole position to pick up a lot of seats tbf, they lost most of their seats to the Tories after all.

psyched for the possibility of the lib dems playing kingmakers again

they're back, and this time they're Lib Dems & Change UK

not if every one of cuk's mps loses their seats (as they should)

imo they're all going to run as lib dem candidates

would be able to live with the tory deserters retaining their seats tbh

o yes, i'm sure they've all seen the error of their ways

Soubz Out imo

Streatham has been Labour since 1992 and the demographics make it difficult to see Chuka retaining his seat. He could take 25% of the vote off Labour and they would still win. This is even more the case in Luciana Berger's constituency, where Labour got nearly 80% of the vote last time. Ditto Chris Leslie's constituency.

The same isn't true of Heidi Allen's seat, she could easily split the old Tory vote in her constituency and let Labour in, although there's still a sizeable LibDem vote in South Cambs which she might benefit from.

Gavin Shuker would lose Luton South. The same is true for Ann Coffey in Stockport, Mike Gapes could quite easily hand his constituency to the Tories but would be more likely to just be hammered with Labour retaining it. Angela Smith's constituency is almost certain to go Tory. Anna Soubry has a very narrow majority, so that's going Labour.

Basically, unless they can find other constituencies to represent, they're getting wiped out. Any polling figures they're showing are completely notional given we don't know their policies on anything except Brexit.

hadn't considered TIG ex-Tory seats flipping Labour but if it can be done then...good

Milk Gapes has a majority of 31k, genuinely not seeing a scenario where a Tory gets in - he’d have to a have a personal vote way beyond the realms of probability for that to happen.

Looking at anything called StatsForLefties is a one way ticket to self-delusion.

Any polling figures they're showing are completely notional given we don't know their policies on anything except Brexit.

― Matt DC,

Policies are the old hat. Only half-facetiously saying this

Some Lib Dems might outpoll some Tories, but it may well be bald men fighting over a comb - the average marginal where the Lib Dems were competitive (within 10%) in 2010, they dropped 37 points further away in 2017. I mean, that probably shrinks a little every time Theresa May says "I'm very glad to report that we agree completely with Labour on Freedom of Movement".

Policies are the old hat. Only half-facetiously saying this

Judging by what happened in the last election campaign when the two manifestos dropped, nah. It might be in the case of TIG which is essentially a political Rorschach test right now, but in general I just don't believe that.

Vince Cable:

He added that the EU could have averted Brexit altogether if it had made concessions on freedom of movement to David Cameron prior to the referendum and urged Brexit negotiators not to repeat the same mistakes.

“The lack of flexibility in dealing with Cameron over migration was the main reason we’re in this mess,” he said. “There are all kinds of de facto rather than de jure limitations on freedom of movement. Pragmatism on all sides would have helped avoid this crash. And it is going to be an awful car crash.”

Milky Gapes.... I heard that lad can down a churn in one!

xp And he'd know, in fairness.

statsforlefties account is actually really good

I still maintain that polls are stuff and nonsense until a GE cycle kicks in but posted that one for the giggles

lmao @ Cable. Lots and lots of bad takes about this stuff, but thinking that what happened with Cameron's 'negotiations' made a fuck of a difference to anything at all might just take the biscuit

sftu vince

if only the EU had been able to make common cause with the UK's frothing xenophobe community

xp And he'd know, in fairness.

Oh and polls are nonsense atm because people don’t tend to vote third party as much in important elections where the outcome is uncertain. It’s more of a risk then.

Roger Scruton says "tribes of Muslims" are entering Europe

Last last year Labour urged the government to sack the philosopher Roger Scruton as chair of a housing commission over comments about the Hungarian philanthropist George Soros which the party said veered into antisemitism.

Those calls have been repeated after, in an interview with the New Statesman, Scruton spoke again about a supposed “Soros empire” in Hungary, and defended the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, over allegations of antisemitism. Scruton said:

The Hungarians were extremely alarmed by the sudden invasion of huge tribes of Muslims from the Middle East.

Scruton also argued that Islamophobia is a propaganda word “invented by the Muslim Brotherhood in order to stop discussion of a major issue”.

He also had this to say about China:

They’re creating robots out of their own people… each Chinese person is a kind of replica of the next one and that is a very frightening thing.

Dawn Butler, Labour’s shadow women and equalities secretary, said Scruton’s comments “invoke the language of white supremacists”, and May should sack him. Butler said:

If she doesn’t, it will be further evidence that she is turning a blind eye to the deep-rooted prejudices and racist views in the Conservative Party, and will again signal that her government endorses these disgusting views.

jfc

problematic imo

Know what?

About car crashes.

I bet Scrotum doesn't lose his housing advisory role after this as well. Because apparently he is much more intellectually robust than Toby Young.

tbf Scruton's never worked in a field where semantic choices are meaningful

No10 spksman: "He's an adviser on housing so it doesn't sound like in those comments he will be speaking for the govt."

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) April 10, 2019

but labour's antisemitism tho

Repeating myself from upthread but I don't know why anyone wld be confident Ann Coffey will lose. she is v personally popular & the only non-tory to be elected in stockport for 40 years

Scruton gone.

i look forward to not reading the thinkpieces