2020 Democratic presidential primary

trying to unpack unperson’s preference metrics...maybe something to do w/ astrology?

Beto probably knows some great IPAs.

Feels a bit like Mayor Pete is more likely to end up in the Kamala/Beto/Biden half of the draw rather than Warren/Bernie half. On the one hand its a more crowded and tougher half, but on the other media backing can go a long way there

Bernie probably knows how to hang. I’ll bet you can het him talking about gramsci after a few

Warren is fun but she’s too good at darts and always wants to play and show people. Like, enough

Sanders doesn't look like much of a reader, actually

Idk he has glasses

How much money do you think he puts in the grandkids' birthday cards?

love Bernie, love the way he heroically got sensible policies that seemed radical to America right up to the top of discussion, but he is toooooooooo oooooooooooold. A Bernie / Harris ticket would be p dope if the VP had an actual role, like Secretary of Ass-Kicking or something.

Bernie's wellspring of support is fired by him being able to state very very moderate centrist ideas as though they're fiery revolutionary standards, like "ppl shouldn't die in the street" and "ppl should be able to get an education."

Warren is dropping similarly calm and sensible policies like "regulate the companies actively destroying our personal lives and democracy," and "let's not have children machine-gunned to death on the reg," but coming off as a nice older neighbourhood lady offering you tea. I don't know whether that will be a benefit or a liability.

Harris is OK. Her history might not be great, but an effective leader who can channel and enact the will of the party and the people is a rare skill, and she might have it. Also, there's nobody I'd rather see debate Trump three times right now.

(A Warren / Harris ticket would be great, but I just can't see an old lady / brown lady duo winning enough voters in the right states in the 2020 that we have.)

Mayor Pete seems nice, is plainly smart, and isn't atrocious on policy as far as we can tell yet. I'm very happy for him to stay on the national stage for now, and will continue to sing his name to the tune of Ed O'Neill singing "Bootytime! Bootytime! Across the USA" for as long as he does.

Inslee would be a very good middle-aged white man president. If he can get on Fox a bunch and explain in clear language why climate change is actually gonna fuck up people's homes and businesses they patronise, that's a win.

Gillibrand seems decent, but the sort that would be effective in a parliamentary system where you get genuine support from members of your party and lead a faction, not a TV-based popular vote? idk, put her on TV more and I'll get more of an idea.

Booker seems high on his own supply but I haven't looked into him at all.

Klobuchar is a liability.

If Yang walks back his circumcision policy, he's lost me.

Biden should be fired into the sun at the first available opportunity. Beto is Yung Biden.

I know it requires giving the site clicks, but did anyone watch Sanders on FOX the other night?

oh never mind -- it's next week.

trying to unpack unperson’s preference metrics...maybe something to do w/ astrology?

Harris has decent policies and the steely prosecutorial mindset required to lead a massive international death machine/empire.

Warren is economically the smartest one out there, and having been a senator will be aware of just how limited her ability to convince the Confederate Party to do anything actually is.

Buttigeig seems smart and relatively sensible, but he's way too high on his own sensible-ness; if he was 25 years older he'd sound a lot more like Howard Schultz. Fortunately, he's not.

Sanders is an obnoxious asshole who can go fuck himself, but he's a nudge better on policy (despite a lifetime of non-accomplishment) than all the anonymous hacks and nobodies I stuffed together at the end.

(A Warren / Harris ticket would be great, but I just can't see an old lady / brown lady duo winning enough voters in the right states in the 2020 that we have.)

name the states bc im not convinced they cant win

Why is warren old and inslee middle aged. They are one year apart. Does hitting ***69*** officially make one old?

yeah he’s such an asshole fighting for people’s rights like that, isn’t he?

the steely prosecutorial mindset required to lead a massive international death machine/empire.

oh okay I get it now. you’re a fucking fascist

What do you think the US president actually does?

there are more positive things to say about KH than “she can carry out our death machine duties very efficiently”

Kamala/Beto/Biden half

whoa now, let's leave kamala out of the beto/biden crew

she looks like she kicks off her heels and has a dirty martini at the end of the day.

follow your heel

Of all the Democratic candidates, Harris is the one I'd most like to have an actual social interaction with.

yep, same

but you're also right that, like Obama, her coolness would make her an uncannily frightening executor of the national security apparatus.

i think a more interesting question is which (if any) of these candidates are so bad that you would not vote for them in nov 2020 vs donald trump. like, even beto or biden. if that was who somehow in the primary, and my choice is between them and trump? i suppose in my case (in illinois) i might do a comedy write-in vote or vote for whatever surprise 3rd party candidate with no chance at all, because of the electoral college, the greatest election system in the world. but in a competitive state, or in a state where they'll probably lose, i would definitely vote for them.

I will vote for any Democrat over Donald Trump.

I live in an irrelevant state, I would not vote for Biden.

whoa now, let's leave kamala out of the beto/biden crew

― Karl Malone,

It wasn't to say they are in the same category policy wise, just that the half of the drawer where media backing will go

milo we live in a state in which a dem narrowly lost a senate race, its not irrelevant anymore. it's not wyoming.

xp

name the states bc im not convinced they cant win

I would be extremely happy if they did! But a lot of the midterms came close to flipping but not close enough, and local elections can be more flippable than national, bcz of the personal connection. (This can go both ways: after 25 years in Warringah, Tony Abbott is now polling with a 12% swing against him... which was his entire margin in '16.) I'm wary of Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, doubtful on Maine and Texas, and a wall-sized ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ on Georgia rn. MI, PA and WI I don't understand at all.

Why is warren old and inslee middle aged. They are one year apart. Does hitting ***69*** officially make one old?

😏

(I was using "old lady / brown lady" as a classification that ppl who don't want to vote for them would apply, not my own positive feelings. And while I was applying similar dipshit voter framing to Inslee, he's totally older than I thought (but two years younger than Warren).)

Whatever Democrat runs in Texas will lose by more than 5 points. It's not Wyoming but it's not competitive without extenuating circumstances (ie no one is entirely sure Ted Cruz is a real person).

Y'all can correct me but I'm confident WI and MI are back in the blue column for 2020.

a dozen caveats about Not Taking Anything for Granted, of course

but you're also right that, like Obama, her coolness would make her an uncannily frightening executor of the national security apparatus.

yeah, this is the worst thing about Harris. Trump's inability to focus on anything has probably made him the least destructive foreign-policy president in 40 years.

(Making the country a laughing stock and fucking up trade > starting a bunch of new wars and murdering foreign civilians)

the least destructive foreign-policy president in 40 years.

he isn't finished, yet.

very nearly added a "so far"

Ok, so can someone give me some reasoning behind the 'Bernie too old' thing? Too old to campaign? to win? to be president?

I don't understand the issue, if he falls ill or dies? But thats what a VP is for.

Possible cognitive decline at that age is a legit issue, particularly given the stress and schedule of a President.

xps If by least destructive we mean leading the global march of authoritarianism by emboldening the likes of Duterte, Bolsenaro, Netanyahu, MBS, al-Assad, Matteo Salvini, Putin, Victor Orban etc ad nauseum...ok?

Weren't almost of all of those in power before Trump?

I don't think Trump emboldened Putin in 1999..

yes of course, I said “emboldening” which I don’t think is debatable?

I don't really get the "Sanders has done nothing" argument. Even setting the Yemen bill aside, greatly expanding the leftward limits of acceptable policy talk is very far from nothing, not to mention inspiring new pols like AOC (and, uh, Mayor Pete)

give me some reasoning behind the 'Bernie too old' thing

Presidents get to have a lot more staff than senators, but it is still an exhausting job. The less energy you have to devote to it, the more you need to delegate. The more you delegate, the easier it is for cabinet members or executive staff to siphon power to themselves. Just keeping a good grip on your cabinet secretaries and national security advisors takes a ton of effort.

How Bernie handles all that would depend heavily on his appointments to key positions, but he's from a tiny state and has self-consciously stood aside from the mainstream of Washington politics, so his connections may not cover his needs when it comes to filling key positions. That's not precisely an age issue, but it is part of the mix.

also he is literally an old man who yells a lot

yeah that wld be really weird if we had an old president who yells a lot

Would be really nice if we didn't

Yeah the being old and yelling are def what's wrong with trump

Presidents get to have a lot more staff than senators, but it is still an exhausting job. The less energy you have to devote to it, the more you need to delegate. The more you delegate, the easier it is for cabinet members or executive staff to siphon power to themselves. Just keeping a good grip on your cabinet secretaries and national security advisors takes a ton of effort.

How Bernie handles all that would depend heavily on his appointments to key positions, but he's from a tiny state and has self-consciously stood aside from the mainstream of Washington politics, so his connections may not cover his needs when it comes to filling key positions. That's not precisely an age issue, but it is part of the mix.

This is exactly right. Trump entered office with no connections and no coattails so he staffed up with the people he knew - crooks and psychos. Sanders, if he was elected, would enter office with a similar lack of talent to draw upon and could easily wind up with a cabinet stuffed with ineffectual cranks (though far fewer outright criminals, I'll give him that much).

yeah, along similar lines im also skeptical of his ability to organize congressional dems once in office.