Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

let's say the CU option limps over the line Wednesday

May asks the EU for a long extension because parliament has lolexpressed a direction of travel

who presides over this??

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/0c/Mr_Blobby%2C_2009.jpg/220px-Mr_Blobby%2C_2009.jpg

I think that a GE is inevitable if it reaches that point, because the cabinet would split and things would become even worse than now.

I don’t think the Tories want a snap election, even if May keeps threatening them with one.

No, they don’t, but the numbers are the problem and there’s only one way to solve that.

election would result in a hung parliament y/n?

i say y

Almost certainly and I can’t see the Tories making gains.

happy days!

I don’t think we can say for certain but those independent seats would be up for grabs and Labour don’t need a huge swing to pick up a decent number of marginals.

it's almost as if the entire enterprise of leaving the EU looks less workable the more that MPs study it

interesting theory, now apply to other Tory policies

give the entire deliberative body three years to focus on each one and i reckon very few of those policies would look "benign" after they'd finished the exercise

If it's finally down to May's deal or no deal, as seems to be the case, then I imagine May's deal will creep home. DUP will hold firm but Labour will start to crumble, WA gets through on a handful of votes

Ken Clarke, the Tory pro-European, says his customs union did not get a majority because some people’s vote supporters would not back it because they only wanted to back a second referendum. And some MPs would not back it because they wanted common market 2.0, even though they would have been happy with the customs union plan too, he says.

He says he sometimes thinks this house is not very good at doing politics.

#prayforken

lots of recriminations but credit where it's due

One remarkable thing is how few Tories supported literally any options tonight:

15 for confirmatory referendum (253 against)

33 for Norway+ (228 against)

10 for Revoke to prevent no-deal (260 against)

37 for customs union (236 against)

— Jon Stone (@joncstone) April 1, 2019

it's good and fine that a policy (no-deal) supported by a minority of the legislature and I assume an even more minor minority of the electorate is liable to occur by default

If it's finally down to May's deal or no deal, as seems to be the case, then I imagine May's deal will creep home. DUP will hold firm but Labour will start to crumble, WA gets through on a handful of votes

― Zelda Zonk,

If this is true - then the people calling May incompetent, deluded, stupid etc are surely wrong?. Banking on Labour crumbling is always likely to yield at least some results

It wasn't an attempt at ironic/moronic witticism or something along them fucking lines. Was more a comment on BBC cunts trying to blow up that Drax speech to be something quite powerful - which it clearly wasn't. I'll just write a rough draft of my post next next and work on it you pseud wannabee writer prick!

― calzino,

Oh, thought it was a reference to the power station!

U fn pseud

People are saying 'hung parliament' but actually you would clear off a few more of these fucking independents and Tories. The polling is favourable enough - and the situation dire - to give it a go.

A parliament without Frank Field and the rest...imagine it (nb I have no idea what the labour candidates for the independent seats are like)

Hard to imagine as he's been there since the Corn Laws were repealed.

sorry about pissed up rudeness, anvil. Broke into a 2nd wine-box last night and should have self-banned!

Further to earlier conversations itt about Downing Street, I passed there this morning and the armed guards were clustered around a big binder with photos and what looked like a blurb about each person. Reminded me of the one they have to study for the party in The Devil Wears Pravda. I would be surprised if it’s for MPs - they would have their parliamentary passes as ID surely? - but who else would visit enough to be in a photo book like that?

At this stage nearly every group and sub-group of MPs could be accused of irresponsibility - Remainers, soft-Brexiters, wider Labour, they've all had the opportunity to agree on a route forward and every option has failed due to one group or another torpedoing it for short-term positional gain. Even Labour, if they really wanted to, could pull us back from the brink by voting the deal through - it wouldn't be ideal but it would be better than nothing.

If we DO tumble clownishly over the edge of the cliff, it'll be because the various groups haven't really believed we are actually at the brink.

I'm not even sure a GE would solve much, it much wash out some of the deadwood but it seems that the European question has infected and broken British politics. Labour needs to find a unified and consistent line in an election, otherwise they just become the pre-2010 Lib Dems, nudging and winking and saying different things depending on which part of the country they are in. The only one I can think of that would broadly satisfy enough voters is 'our own Soft Brexit proposal, ratified by the public with a referendum, with Remain as an option'.

What does it say if Labour vote the deal through after voting it down three times? That holding the country to ransom to keep your party together works? They shouldn’t vote for it.

lots of boris style "demented revivalism" from david davis on the radio this morn. "britain leads the way" in just about everything in his world. Not useful when he could be getting a lesson of a lifetime in how irrelevant this country actually is very soon.

Bringing this deal back from the dead would just be horrible. It's an 11:59pm option only.

Things are broken, the path to healing the divisions will take a long time. I don't think a GE would solve any issues but it might be a start.

I don’t want no deal, but I’d be extremely angry if Labour folded just to keep the Tory party together. Especially after that speech from May last week. Just unthinkable.

It would be spun as ensuring people have medicines and food. You'd probably do it at the very last opportunity on those terms, even highlighting deficiencies in no deal preparations first and pushing the Tories to own this fully.

xp Jesus, that was only last week.

If there is a GE with May in charge then I expect the Tories to get hammered, but Labour will probably still have to take on some personal growth and look at an SNP coalition.

Worth remembering that the things that the EU (are saying they will) require for a post-crash Trade Deal are the same things that are sticking points now: £39b, rights of EU citizens in the UK, a backstop (or functional equivalent).

Lol 'personal growth' depends on the terms of it ffs.

sorry about pissed up rudeness, anvil. Broke into a 2nd wine-box last night and should have self-banned!

― calzino,

No apology necessary! nothing wrong with a late night reducer

They shouldn’t vote for it.

Seems especially distasteful for any "moderates" to vote for it now Tory hardliners are openly saying that they'll vote for it and then renege on it.

But I don't want No Deal to happen just because nobody could agree on anything else either, and after last night I don't know what other options we've got.

Ho hum...

dig out a copy of "To Serve Man"

penny seems to finally be dropping in some corners of the commentariat

Look at this chart. Tories say No. No. No. No. The failure to compromise ultimately lies at their door. https://t.co/zJtna8Jlr0

— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) April 1, 2019

The Devil Wears Pravda

alternate-universe movies you wish you could see

Fucking hell, my autocorrect just keeps telling on me.

Yeah voting the deal through is the last resort only, and in last resort situation it's irresponsible not to, but they shouldn't do it before that, sorry if I didn't make that clear.

It makes yesterday's shooting down of alternatives even more stupid but you can't blame (most) Labour MPs for that. It has taken a lot of the shine off the CUKs who are clearly gambling absolutely everything on a People's Vote, it's them who look like the No Compromise ultras now.

Is there any way for non-loons to make sure the Tories don't renege on the WA once May's out?

I know there was an amendment to require parliamentary scrutiny of future changes to the WA but it didn't/won't get through + I'm not sure how much it's actually worth, so is there any way to actually hold the govt/executive to honour their agreements?

(sorry if I already asked this and forgot the answer)

Speaking to both parts of that, does anyone know what the rationale is for Labour not whipping Joanna Cherry's amendment? Is it just that revocation is gay and if you touch revocation then you're gay?

(xp to Matt)

There’s probably a lot of pressure on Corbyn from MPs in leave constituencies to not force their hand for that in exchange for them either voting for or at least abstaining on the soft Brexit options.

labour largely pessimistic about upcoming council elections in the NW, remains to be seen how many of the leave voters in the majority leave areas are also labour voters

penny seems to finally be dropping in some corners of the commentariat

Great stuff, guys!

i dreamt we're being put on world-wide stand-by for alien invasion tomorrow btw, hope this calms fears a bit

The bottom 30 constituencies when you rank by % who signed the revoke petition are all Labour seats, including Tom Watson’s. Revoke is a dicey thing for them to be seen to support even now.