"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

may's way or no way, he says

The choice seems to be Mrs May’s deal or no Brexit.https://t.co/GggHZ7NEv5

— Jacob Rees-Mogg (@Jacob_Rees_Mogg) March 26, 2019

the latter is fine by me tbh

Hope it turns out as well as when he backed the no-conf against her

ding dong

Massive moment. The expectation among Tory grandees now is that PM uses the below to set a date for her resignation. https://t.co/UOOzxTRm2O

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) March 26, 2019

The time may have passed but I'll second Andrew's Josie love, I know her relentless positivity is the least ILX thing ever but going to her monthly night was one of the first things that made me feel welcome in London. And she's the only stand up I can think of who has been unequivocal in her support for Corbyn all the way through.

wheeeee

A no deal Brexit would put up to 80,000 jobs in Ireland at risk, a new report by the government’s department of finance and the Economic & Social Research Institute has found.

It found deep and damaging impact of a crash-out caused by the impact of tariffs on exports and other barriers to trade with the UK, Ireland’s second largest export market.

The study finds that GDP in Ireland ten years after Brexit will be around 2.6% lower in a deal scenario, 4.8% lower in a no-deal scenario (a bare bones deal with a managed period of adjustment) and 5% lower in what it describes as a “disorderly no-deal” scenario.

Adele Bergin, lead author of the report, said:

The impact of each Brexit scenario is considerable and will have negative effects throughout the economy on the household sector, the labour market, firms and the public finances. However, the negative impact on Irish output in the long run in the deal scenario is approximately half that of the no-deal scenario.

The report’s assessment was guided by the conclusions of 15 different reports on the impact of Brexit on the British economy and Irish economy.

The report found that in each scenario some of the negatives would be offset by increased by relocation of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Ireland such as banks and other financial services.

It cites studies that have shown that the UK could lose around a quarter of its FDI in no deal Brexit.

Lab 263 (+1)
SNP 49 (+14)
LD 16 (+4)

I make that 328 aka a majority.

Not that it matters, the UKIP polling will have the Tories gunning for an all out Brexit at any cost now.

xp "up to" leaves plenty of wriggle room in these things is the thing

Apparently may is addressing Tory MPs at the 1922 committee tomorrow as well. Maybe the end is actually near.

Of course those seats numbers for Labour are going to include most of the TIG seats, so a net gain in more ways than one.

The wingnuts are turning fully on JRM now.

it’ll go higher

here are four westminster-bubble phrases i never wish to hear again: "men in grey suits" & "last chance saloon" & "throwing their hat in the ring" & "stalking horse"

That's a majority but there's no way the SNP or LibDems go into coalition or C&S with Labour without very specific pro-European commitments at the very least. Probably a lot more in the SNP's case.

- any variation of [backbench Tory surname] [noun that refers to some sort of amendment]
- SO14
- split the base

xp then I guess we’d better hope for a labour majority (hopefully 97 style)

SNP would want power for holyrood to call indyrefs as a price for confidence and supply

Still don’t see her setting a date working for persuading the DUP or the complete headbangers. I still half-think she’ll brazen it out even further.

under what circumstances short of logan's run will corbyn achieve a '97esque majority? like, i am on your side here but how on earth can he turn around the polling numbers

what were polls saying when he delivered last election

No need to repeat you are on our side imago nobody cares what you do.

xxp proof that I should never attempt positivity & should instead stay on the relentlessly negative path of harsh crushing reality.

I scribbled down some half garbled thoughts last week about potential tailwinds for labour this time round:

1 JC’s hegemony means they’ll be able to fight a more effective campaign as he’ll have more authority to direct resources. So eg they won’t run the Scottish campaign like an Edinburgh South by-election this time round.

2 The post-2017 Electoral Map is very healthy. 1 pt swing for 15 seats. Further 21 seats if they replicate 2017 swing.

3 They’ve played their (difficult) Brexit hand very well and would have a coherent position which respects the referendum but also motivates their remain base.

4 They have maintained their 2017 coalition (broadly). They’re still polling broadly equal despite the 2 yr media onslaught and mischaracterisation. Inside Purdah, their polling will rise (though I suspect the press may play faster and looser this time round).

5 People like to vote for the winners. People say they benefited from sympathy votes last time round & a lack of credibility so people didn’t worry about voting for them. The evidence doesn’t bear this out.

6 TIG may be more of a threat to Tories than Labour

7 Scottish dimension is not well understood. Labour have a resonant offer for people who (I) feel the pain of austerity; and (II) worry about the democratic deficit [their last manifesto talked about increased federalism]. —— this part is least well thought through though I will say that if SNP get 49 seats at GE19 I will eat matt goodwin’s book AND one of giles coren’s children

go fuck yourself you useless cunt

everyone regards you as at best a tedious ideologue

Harsh, it was only child he was talking about.

go and drown yourself in your books and your futile politics

clench-teeth research teaches us that all four are favoured by rabid leavers, a testament to the good and educative effects of v bad melt political media in the 80s and 90s 🤬 🤮 ☠️

men in grey suits

last chance saloon

hat in the ring

stalking horse

—— this part is least well thought through though I will say that if SNP get 49 seats at GE19 I will eat matt goodwin’s book AND one of giles coren’s children

I think Scotland is the big obvious spoiler to a Labour majority, even though they gained seats there and in England last time round. I’m not sure what they’re doing up there & I’m not sure they do either.

scottish conservative GE17 gains may be in play now too - the bloc of 13 have been so servile. what’s the point in sending them to WM if they’re not going to safeguard the union by standing up to the no deal ultras ?

SLAB have been making some positive policy noises, notably on free bus travel and creation of jobs via the green new deal.

scotland is very remainy but I suspect that elides the whole picture - I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a lot of people out there, like me, who voted remain but recognises the legitimacy of the leave result and are happy to row in behind compromise

they made a monumental fuck-up of the bus travel policy though, not bothering to check with the bodies involved if it was possible and then arguably under-pricing it by 10x. ScotLab is not a healthy place rn

Imago go lie down for a while give the concern trolling a rest.

I can see the Scottish Tory vote tanking in the next election, the Orange Bastard constituency isn't big enough and they haven't down enough to distance themselves from the UK party to satisfy the We Might Support The Union But We Still Hate The English brigade.

"3 They’ve played their (difficult) Brexit hand very well and would have a coherent position which respects the referendum but also motivates their remain base"

I don't see this at all. They have a coherent position at conference level which translates to non members as "if x then y unless z then 4" - even then you've got the party chairman undermining the policy and the party.

their manifesto will say “we will try to negotiate a radically different brexit, based on a closer relationship - and if we succeed, in the spirit of bringing the country together we will put that deal to the people.”

leave voters get something more palatable than may’s deal/no deal + remain voters get choice of better deal or remain (importantly this enthuses their activist base).

tories will have no brexit policy. may’s deal? malthouse unicorn? good luck

The unicorn is dead, zebra.

Democratic Unicornist Party.

Jeremy Unicornbyn.

And hey, there’s a lion too.
https://talkradio.co.uk/news/artist-who-painted-theresa-may-riding-lion-it-came-me-dream-18110928727

eh, it's no "Corbyn with somebody's tits wrapped round his head"

no wait

https://talkradio.co.uk/sites/talkradio.co.uk/files/imce/237/maxime_queen.jpg

wtf

powerfully erotic imo

Been thinking, and although it isn't a great likeness (hence everyone's confusion) I think the woman with tits wrapped round JC's head can only be Angela Rayner- any other suggestions?

I don’t think she’s meant to be a real person, she’s clearly ~symbolic~

she symbolizes tits

Colleen Rooney or is it the lady from QT who started off as Con voter, became disillusioned and became a fervent Corbynista. That would be troubling though, cos she's just a citizen.

Rose = socialism
Tits = milk of human kindness
Woman = the NHS

these paintings need more pancakes on heads imo

still the gold standard:
https://www.the-tls.co.uk/s3/tls-prod/uploads/2017/03/0e6f797c-fe8c-11e6-99c1-0f7da5c35c8f.jpeg

https://mariapetroff.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/CloseuoMay.jpg

heaven preserve us!