"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

I went to see Josie Long and Grace Petrie is the answer to both questions, and it was a useful reminder that everyone on here is in fact on the same side.

Letwin:

So it passed, guess she's going to resign immediately then.

― mfktz (Camaraderie at Arms Length), Monday, 25 March 2019 22:15 (forty-three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Letlose: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/oliver-letwin-caught-throwing-away-85337

The PM's blundering policy adviser was seen on five separate days throwing away sensitive correspondence on terrorism, national security and constituents' private details.

I just remembered this & im dying cos he went on tv and said the papers were weighing him down

Actual lols at the scenes with Bercow rn

― stet, Monday, 25 March 2019 22:56 (thirteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

biys biys yis are full fat craic

remind me if we hate grieve and why

Stan for austerity fuck him

ty

How invested are the DUP really in Brexit at any price? Because it feels like it’s now or never for the deal and most other routes lead to soft/no Brexit.

I’ve always taken it as read that the backstop is beyond unpalatable for their entire project, and if that’s the case they’ll never vote for the deal but tomorrow could get interesting

i really amnt sure whether they have a strong policy position on brexit qua brexit, they are the living definition of a one-issue party and that issue dictates that they will not accept any difference between their province and the continental uk ito how the interface with the modern world is provisioned

darragh while we have u here how does one pronounce "amn't"

i think we've talked about this before but Ireland is otm that the backstop is in fact MORE required in the event of no deal than it is in the event of any actual putative deal. wasn't there some noise a few weeks ago about UK and ireland seeing if they could negotiate something along these lines bilaterally, without tying it to a perhaps nonexistent divorce agreement?

xp unless those differences involve keeping abortions and gay marriage illegal, fuck the DUP.

I would say it like ammint but I'm Scotch.

am uhnt

Isn't May's position now that if the backstop ever kicks in, then the rest of the UK will remain in the customs union as well until it's sorted, ensuring no regulatory differences across the UK. If so, why wouldn't that be acceptable to the DUP? And if it is, then some ERG will follow suit and there's still a path to (pyrrhic) victory for May

39 government or cabinet ministers have resigned or been sacked since the 2017 General Election. Almost two per month.

amint

suzy otm in that yeah look they are obv a bunch of selective lunatics

but for the purposes of the question, id say theres decimal place % chance of them flinching

th correct in that at best hard brexit necessitates the border and at worst it could be a factor in a softer overall view of some greater unification, its all a bit up in the air but....it would at least ask some very hard questions about how tied dup voters are to the ideology vs the everyday realities.

but the dup mps themselves no they wont be compromising

mays position on the backstop now is that it wouldnt be legally binding

there may have been more detail than that, i didnt particularly feel like delving any further meself.

thanks darragh

The other DUP problem with the backstop is that it puts the UK at the mercy of the EU (and therefore Ireland) by forcing it to be locked into a Customs Union which it no longer has any say over and can't exit even if it wants to. May can't fix that, and her own Attorney General shredded her last attempt to dress it up xp

well she, or the UK government, can agree a future relationship of whatever shape they want with the EU. the backstop operates in the absence of such an agreement. so i'm not sure why anyone, particularly in the current party of government, should be complaining about having their hands tied.

xp yeah theres possibly a strand to be picked out that could be argued that the dup are the more fanatically loyal to capital g great britain than even the ERG (i dont know enough about the coherency nor unity of motivation of the latter to say) due to the twin ties of really needing to be a part of it whilst surrounded by well us and that strange phenomenon of affinity for a historical idealised entity

that aspect of dupness was touched upon by smarter ppl in the ira thread lately iirc

it's umny here.

when you boil it down don't the complaints about the backstop, and therefore the entire stumbling block to the tories just voting through a deal, simply amount to the brexiteers not having the confidence that they can agree a future reltship with the EU of any stripe? the backstop goes away the second you agree one! why is this a big deal?? i feel like i'm fucking loco sometimes?!??

or urnae

yeah, the backstop is a good thing! But the ERG hate it at core because they know they're lying about it being possible to have arrangement that gives them a border (control of our borders!) but also has no border (and we respect the Good Friday Agreement!).

So the backstop calls their bluff -- "sure, you can come up with some bullshit technology to fix the border problem, but if it just so happens you can't, you'll be tied to our customs laws until you've figured something else out". Hence the harrrumph heard around the world.

like let's say it's 2021 or whatever and the dreaded backstop has just kicked in. this means the UK has... continuity with the grace period for agreeing the future rltship and not crashed out. now.. any month.. any year.. any time we want, we can negotiate a trade agreement with the EU of whatever type we think we can get and the backstop goes away. THIS is what has fucked it, this setup??

like. is their confidence in their ability to negotiate a future deal SO LOW? if so....... WHY DO THEY WANT TO LEAVE SO BAD???

i apologise if i'm getting important details wrong here, or if you've all been over this a million times already. i think it's breaking my brain

a not insignificant part is that the ppl most invested in leaving are heavily overlapping on the venn diagram with the ppl least willing to treat on equal terms with the irish

possibly sub in EU mandarins but idk the coverage and reaction at any stage where the backstop has been the blocker isnt pretty reading

but rly, the backstop is just where the rubber hits the road on the impossibility of not being in the EU and not in any way compromising with the EU

the no-compromise leave isn't possible as a result of GFA

It's stronger than that. They're not total morons — I think they realise that full EU membership is better than EFTA/Customs Union. But what they think is best of all is FREE BRITAIN trading with the world (and especially America and China) in ways that are totally incompatible with CU. And they literally just didn't think about Ireland when dreaming this up. They've now realised that while they need to keep the DUP sweet for now, ultimately they either have to fuck over Northern Ireland or persuade Ireland to leave the EU too (which they tried, hilariously) and exit any sort of common market.

That's why the backstop kills it dead, by ruling out forever the hope that they can fuck over Ireland/Northern Ireland and get their free market paradise.

free derry paradise morelike

a not insignificant part is that the ppl most invested in leaving are heavily overlapping on the venn diagram with the ppl least willing to treat on equal terms with the irish

possibly sub in EU mandarins but idk the coverage and reaction at any stage where the backstop has been the blocker isnt pretty reading

Otfm.just going to point out that Gove opposed the GFA andvwrote a pamphlet where he compared it to Nazi appeasement & there’s a fairly strong chance he could be the next PM. So yeah...

Lol I just googled it & it was actually worse than that?

Mr Gove, a former journalist, wrote a pamphlet in 2000 called Northern Ireland: the Price of Peace in which he compared the agreement to the appeasement of the Nazis in the 1930s and the condoning of the desires of paedophiles.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/michael-gove-a-fanatic-who-would-damage-peace-process-1.2710224

or urnae

― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Monday, March 25, 2019 5:31 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag PostPermalink

Or even "amurnae", as in "naw amurnae "

Mrs May angered DUP MPs on Monday when she identified the absence of devolved institutions in Northern Ireland as one of the reasons why Britain could not leave the EU on March 29th. Nigel Dodds accused the prime minister of bringing up “an entirely new argument” when she had failed to prepare properly for a no-deal Brexit.

oh gosh i had missed this.

now was that a shot across their bow(ler)s or just another exaple of her disastrous way with ppl

I'm sure Tracer knows, but the real problem is the scenario where I sling a leg of beef over my shoulder and walk over the border from RoI to NI, and then onto the ferry to Holyhead. If I don't enter customs at the border (the GFA requirement) or on the ferry (the DUP requirement), but GB is not in a customs union with the EU, how does 0+0=1?

The current front runner is I believe that drones will fingerprint the cow at time of death.

scanned in a border beef

The current front runner is I believe that drones will fingerprint the cow at time of death.

those UKIP numbers

Latest @OpiniumResearch poll, 20-22 March. Changes since #GE17.

% vote
Con 36 (-8)
Lab 35 (-6)
UKIP 9 (+7)
LD 7 (-1)
SNP 5 (+2)
Grn 4 (+2)
Oth 4 (+3)

Our seat estimate
Con 298 (-19)
Lab 263 (+1)
SNP 49 (+14)
LD 16 (+4)
Oth 24 (-)

Pro-Tory MPs 309 (-19)
All other MPs 333 (+19)

— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) March 26, 2019

moggs backing mays deal apparently

may's way or no way, he says

The choice seems to be Mrs May’s deal or no Brexit.https://t.co/GggHZ7NEv5

— Jacob Rees-Mogg (@Jacob_Rees_Mogg) March 26, 2019

the latter is fine by me tbh

Hope it turns out as well as when he backed the no-conf against her

ding dong

Massive moment. The expectation among Tory grandees now is that PM uses the below to set a date for her resignation. https://t.co/UOOzxTRm2O

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) March 26, 2019

The time may have passed but I'll second Andrew's Josie love, I know her relentless positivity is the least ILX thing ever but going to her monthly night was one of the first things that made me feel welcome in London. And she's the only stand up I can think of who has been unequivocal in her support for Corbyn all the way through.

wheeeee

A no deal Brexit would put up to 80,000 jobs in Ireland at risk, a new report by the government’s department of finance and the Economic & Social Research Institute has found.

It found deep and damaging impact of a crash-out caused by the impact of tariffs on exports and other barriers to trade with the UK, Ireland’s second largest export market.

The study finds that GDP in Ireland ten years after Brexit will be around 2.6% lower in a deal scenario, 4.8% lower in a no-deal scenario (a bare bones deal with a managed period of adjustment) and 5% lower in what it describes as a “disorderly no-deal” scenario.

Adele Bergin, lead author of the report, said:

The impact of each Brexit scenario is considerable and will have negative effects throughout the economy on the household sector, the labour market, firms and the public finances. However, the negative impact on Irish output in the long run in the deal scenario is approximately half that of the no-deal scenario.

The report’s assessment was guided by the conclusions of 15 different reports on the impact of Brexit on the British economy and Irish economy.

The report found that in each scenario some of the negatives would be offset by increased by relocation of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Ireland such as banks and other financial services.

It cites studies that have shown that the UK could lose around a quarter of its FDI in no deal Brexit.

Lab 263 (+1)
SNP 49 (+14)
LD 16 (+4)

I make that 328 aka a majority.

Not that it matters, the UKIP polling will have the Tories gunning for an all out Brexit at any cost now.

xp "up to" leaves plenty of wriggle room in these things is the thing

Apparently may is addressing Tory MPs at the 1922 committee tomorrow as well. Maybe the end is actually near.

Of course those seats numbers for Labour are going to include most of the TIG seats, so a net gain in more ways than one.

The wingnuts are turning fully on JRM now.

it’ll go higher