"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

Brexit is part of a hard-right continuum and I doubt that we'd simply return to Cameronian austerity after its thwarting. The jig is hopefully up for all of these cunts.

the cynical FBPErs like blair, mandelson etc know full well that labour’s strategy is the right one. instead they have hijacked the FBPE movement as a way to launder their reputations

OTM. And just as May failed to build consensus with the Remain side for her Leave plan; too much FBPE is doing the same in the other direction.

Suit yourself, gyac. I take a different view of the EU, perhaps because, without it, Romania would be even less than the nothing it already is. The EU's flaws, while very real, are still infinitely preferable to the alternative. And a post-Brexit UK is likely to become even more of a neoliberal dystopia (I hope to be proven wrong).

he EU's flaws, while very real, are still infinitely preferable to the alternative.

Damn true gyac must regret voting leave

Yes that is exactly what I've been presuming throughout.

I certainly regret writing a long comment that said much the same and which was ignored!

I have a LOT of time for the argument that matt DC made that we may look back in 8-10 years and regret that the labour party did not stand up and show moral leadership on this. I genuinely do swither on that - however, I think the party is unable to be tough on brexit until it has been tough on the causes of brexit. that means plotting a strategy which holds together its electoral coalition.

we also need to get away from thinking about this whole issue as an issue of “sides” - that culture war nonsense only plays into the hands of the right. the labour party are correct when they say the real divisions in our country are not between remain and leave

The labour 2017 voter coalition is real and precarious. They are getting pushback on the doorstep during local election campaigning about supporting a public vote! Had they gone full remain in 2016 or 2017, how many seats would they have won? Is anyone here confident in saying they wouldn’t have been steamrollered by the press pushing a “betraying Brexit!” narrative? Because I’m certainly not.

crush the saboteurs would not have been reduced to an FBPE punchline

(a billion xposts) I sort of meant to go today but was probably actually never going to because I hate crowds and planning travel arrangements and all that.

Fizzles' list is very otm and I def don't feel very aligned with PV as an actual funded/organised group - maybe not even with a 2nd vote as the best way out of this mess, though I'd take whatever way out or softening presents itself - but I do feel that Brexit is basically a right-wing coup and I hope the march has big numbers to let the Tories to know this has been noticed and stood up to in some way, however futile.

The austerity years have been v rough - perhaps even beyond Thatcherism, the pursuit of halfbaked ideology at the cost of actual human lives, the claim of slashing public spending to "reduce the deficit" (already a meaningless objective) while actually just redirecting spending to the Tories' mates - and yes the idea that they were a golden age, or that we can just cancel Brexit and go back to Jan 2016 forever even if they were, is fucking nuts.

But Cameron's referendum has opened a Pandora's box of far-right grievances and it would be nice if that hadn't happened? I fear they can never be put back in the box now but if anyone thinks they can get some of them back in I'm prepared to listen. And good luck reversing austerity or Tory policies once the economy crashes post-EU, we have no EU rights directives to fall back on, and have to sign whatever trade deal the US puts forward

and I work with a lot of EU citizens and other foreign nationals and I do feel ashamed for the rhetoric & increased hostility - plus I have family and friends in NI and am worried for the future there and ashamed for the ignorance of our govt there too, in a way I'd had the luxury of not being (quite so much) for a few years post-GFA

so - everyone otm? (sorry for long incoherent post)

Booming post

yeah good post the only thing I would take issue with perhaps is this: And good luck reversing austerity or Tory policies once the economy crashes post-EU...

strikes me that this type of story is doing the heavy lifting for the tories in advance. contractionary economic policy is contractionary: if there is a post-exit economic downturn, a very swift (and turbo charged) reversal of austerity will be exactly what is required

As a show of hands:

Who believes that a cuddly jobs-first Brexit is in any way on the table (whether or not you think it's a good thing)

Who believes that Corbyn is fine with a public vote but just really really feels the need to respect the rules in this one specific area (as opposed to 'is being dragged kicking and screaming towards a public vote'). Again, whether or not you think this is a good thing.

I think Corbyn wants a brexit, though clearly not a Tory brexit, and that position happens to coincide with the best electoral and political strategy. Or has done up til now at least IMO. If the Labour leadership wholeheartedly backed a PV or revoking A50 and those things happened the fortunes of the party would be hitched inseparably to the issue which the Tories must be allowed to own.

But fuck do I know.

anyone who isn’t being dragged kicking and screaming towards a second ref is highly sus imo

A cuddly Brexit is definitely on the table. If the red lines were gone the EU would negotiate. But we’ll need EU and probably GB elections for it to ever come about.

NE otm i think.

any discussion is made difficult by the fact all paths feel equally unlikely:

having said that i think a more closely integrated Brexit is still on the table - path for that is that May goes, and is replaced by someone less determined on migration red lines.

headwind against that is that it’s not clear (to say the least) who that would be - tories will be doing everything they can to avoid a split. A GE which saw anything other than a Tory/DUP majority would again make a more integrated negotiation possible, based on existing Labour principles.

it’s not easy to see a clear path but then that’s where we are with everything (even to a degree with no deal which as default still feels likeliest).

I don’t think Corbyn fancies a people’s vote at all, for many of the reasons discussed ad nauseam - amongst others, who chooses the questions, what are the questions, what if it’s close again. it reverses a decision which many Labour constituents still back, and the parliamentary figures are not even close.

any politician

Cuddly Brexit on the table inasmuch as I believe that Corbyn wants it and could negotiate it with eu but as Matt iirc has said repeatedly it’s getting it thru Parliament that’ll be the sticking point and I’m not at all confident in that

Scottish Labour are going to be pure raging about this one. 😂#PeoplesVoteMarch pic.twitter.com/iN3aEoaRL6

— Lindsay Bruce (@RogueCoder250) March 23, 2019

wouldn’t be so sure...

A vote doesn't actually reverse the decision but it puts the option of reversing the decision on the table. We could easily end up back in the same place.

Treating the 2016 referendum like an immutable watershed in British politics is part of the problem. Focusing on the personalities (Blair, Corbyn, Chuka whoever) is part of the problem, they will barely even matter in a decade but the consequences will still be with us. Pretending that May's deal or any other single variant of Brexit represents The Will Of The People is part of the problem.

I don't really see many other options right now though - the country is teetering on the cliff edge and it needs to be asked if we really want to go over it. It isn't a magic bullet but it's one of the few lifeboats we've got right now.

great thread

Best of luck and all love to those on the #PeoplesVoteMarch today! While I’ve still got huge reservations about a second ref in itself (as well as the apparatchiks running the campaign), it’s the failures of the Tory Party in government driving polarisation in this country.

— Ash Sarkar (@AyoCaesar) March 23, 2019

Also if "the people voted for pain" is a legit quote then a) anything that stops this sociopath is a good thing and b) perhaps the people might actually like the opportunity not to vote for pain? (Or at least, to vote for less of it)

it’s an extraordinary quote. i was saying to a friend yesterday, of the story that she basically read out her article from a german newspaper from the morning in a meeting with the EU when they asked her what the plan was, that she’s like something out of an eastern european satire - good soldier švejk or maybe dusty-dusty’s the idiot - a person who can only read from a script keeps on rising through this singular quality gets to run a ruritanian country.

still struggle to see how the question should be framed. as today’s distinctly aggressively posed comres poll shows, aggregating different leave options against “abandoning” brexit produces a substantial leave majority. my point isn’t the validity of the poll there - it looks highly framed for the express readership, but the problems inherent in posing the question.

I highly doubt that the people would have voted for pain if they knew it was the French word for bread.

otoh, had they been voting for the French word for cake, they'd have jumped right on it.

A sliced pain is your only man.

Impressed with the size of the march although obviously expect it to be ignored anyway. The petition has passed 4.5 million signatures and looks on course for 5 by Friday.

It’ll be 5 million by tomorrow morning, easy.

A sliced pain is your only man.

tick.jpg as we used to say

'Cake' isn't an easy word to translate into French (conversely, neither is 'brioche').

There is no future for Britain in a hard-right Brexit that throws minorities and others under the bus to keep our exhausted capitalism alive for a few more years. But it is equally unsustainable to turn the country into a 2012 tribute act. https://t.co/uWX1vWAkB6

— Aditya Chakrabortty (@chakrabortty) March 23, 2019

the fact of the matter that the only route to a second referendum runs through the labour leadership office and the (non-cynical) FBPErs have failed to recognise that, failed to build bridges and failed to work with and/or persuade labour to their cause. instead they have castigated the one man who is actually effectively operating as a bulwark to a hard tory brexit. this risks undermining his political capital and ultimately increases the risk of a harder brexit than labour are trying to work towards.

you can see this in the windmill jolyon tweet I posted above. he is no doubt a v nice well meaning sort but his political acumen seems a little lacking. labour members are fairly remainy - don’t alienate us by attacking us

the cynical FBPErs like blair, mandelson etc know full well that labour’s strategy is the right one. instead they have hijacked the FBPE movement as a way to launder their reputations

Just passed a grotesque four headed effigy of May, Johnson Gove and Davis which said something about them burning in hell

Is this the one?

So many people out today marching in London - let's hope it does some good.#PeoplesVoteMarch#PeoplesMarch pic.twitter.com/A5skXQmF4v

— Karen Banks (@KarenLBanks) March 23, 2019

Aditya Chakrabortty's been v. good lately - his last few columns (that I've seen) have all been excellent. Was hoping that link would be a full column and not just a single tweet

btw thank you |||s for your reply earlier regarding "no money to reverse austerity after brexit-induced economic crash" being fundamentally some Tory-worldview-based question-begging; I hadn't seen it from that angle, which does make sense - but I still fear the Tories will tear down a bunch of useful frameworks and institutions if we crash out and it'll take a lot of rebuilding

good Ash Sarkar thread too, lots to think about

A problem is that while the strategy is the right one and is essentially based on compromising, they can’t be sufficiently candid about that because nothing less than Back To 2015 will cut it for the FBPEs and anything more than Leave And Get On With It is too soft for the seaside-chip-shop-vox-pop set. Until there’s an broader acceptance that some compromise might be required here they have a narrow line to walk.

That “oh wait you can’t put people’s vote to a vote yet” moment what feels like aeons ago felt like a step on the road to accepting that an uncompromising stance isn’t actually going to achieve much. And the march and the 5m signatures hopefully help dismantle the “its only some elites who want to stay fuck em”.

But this is a process that takes time we don’t really have, so we need to buy time. What does that look like? Voting on Wednesday for “negotiate Norway and ratify with referendum” (with extension and necessary EU elections) seems like the clearest compromise route forward.

They could even separate out and pass the WA and do the changes in the political declaration. It’d probably trigger the DUP to end the conf + supply but would let May go with (lolol) dignity having delivered “her” deal.

Xps

wtev did you read the sarkar thread I linked ?

I missed it, it’s a great thread and says what I was groping towards about the necessary and intended ambiguity of Labour’s position.

great posts itt today

The one thing that could really fuck us up is May being toppled immediately and a even-worse headbanger getting in (or the process leading to paralysis and our tripping past April 11). So glad to see shit like this:

Jeremy Hunt does not back Lidington because he thinks he will do a deal with Labour for permanent membership of a customs union

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) March 23, 2019

i am at a party tonight in the function room of a London pub and while it's a birthday party and not an anti-Brexit party, um, you Britishes listen to far more Abba than any non-European realistically would. RUMBLED. PERMANENTLY I'M AFRAID

huge if true

leave could mean a lot of things

This coup stuff is hilarious. They appear to be unable to decide who could replace her and are descending into squabbling. Probably need some indicative WhatsApp votes

an "agreed succession" rather than leadership election, lool !

hang on "everybody (backstreet's back)" just came on, no deal is a go

So what's the hope for a way out that isn't through? I can't see it. Apart from the Tories rotally collapsing, sufficient delay and a GE until which time Labour do have to keep up the quantum superposition. Either that or the EU can somehow manouver the Tories towards a cuddlier brexit rather than no-deal? Nah, no idea.

I don't want to think too much about how this is affecting my non-British parents (who've been here 50+ years FFS). They'd be justified in having some very fuckin' real concerns right now.

That's totally, not "rotally" although that might be fun to watch as well.

I'm losing it. But all I can see is that stopping brexit now doesn't put it rest at all, as policy would cripple the Labour larty for 'a generation' whatever else happens, AND just seems very unlikely under any circumstance anyway.

So if you oppose a Labour-managed brexit you're basically all in with the Tories, hard brexit and possibly no deal.