"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

How's them No Deal odds looking?

this means long extension is the only way, right? and France reportedly refusing even that without the promise of a GE or ref2

is peston ok

So will this EU heavy-handedness convince a load of EU-hating Brexiteer MPs to vote for the deal? Because I think the answer is no.

But it is a proper cliff edge; I wonder if it makes Labour types terrified of No Deal fall in line for the good of the land

I wouldn't think so, since presumably yous could always rejoin on the same terms as Moldova or whatever

labour should hold the line. there are a number of other options within the government’s gift

force them to take the pain.

Paddy Power has suspended betting on an election but that may well be because there is no situation they won’t hijack for attention.

I suspect it all comes down to what May would do if her deal was defeated, and whether she's prepared to tell us beforehand.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/year-of-next-general-election
that 6/4 on 2019 election has well and truly been eaten up!

I can’t see May accepting a long delay or fighting a new election so either of those scenarios is probably contingent on her leaving. I also can’t see her being replaced by anyone more pro-Europe than her. I’m not sure why France would accept a long delay if it meant the likelihood of negotiating with a hardliner. If we can’t have a short delay, idk how we are going to have time for a Tory leadership election or a GE. Someone will have to bend and Labour wets seem the most likely.

Unless noone (not enough someones) bends

May has ruled out a long extension, and the EU has ruled out a short one unless the deal is backed now. So May says tonight "back my deal, now, or I quit and you have a long extension which might cost you Brexit entirely".

Question is does that get the deal over the line? You only need 7 to have it fail for good. There are 100+ Tories who claim they want No Deal on the table, a presumably smaller number who'd be happy for it to happen. There are another set who want May gone, and an even smaller set who will be happy with a chance for a long extension and ultimately Remain.

I don't see there being enough Labour wets to offset that.

But: Tusk is being wildly misreported as saying "no extension at all unless you back May's deal" which is causing no small amount of panic in certain circles and that makes things dicey.

This thing is going to get out of hand.

Is going to? That ship has sailed.

i have visions of this ending like alien with brexit wiping out the whole of parliament and then may finally blasting off in an escape capsule with the number 10 cat

sorry spoiler alert on alien there

I see it ending with May on her deathbed revealing that Rosebud was her sled HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM APPLES NICKB??

The problem with Labour holding the line is that they've already pledged to do everything in their power to avoid No Deal - they can't do both, and that Tusk statement is pretty unambiguous. (Although what the leaders of the EU countries think matters more, right?)

May *could* remove some red lines or call a GE but both of these would require a longer extension. Voting the deal through might be the least worst option, even though everyone hates it, and this is assuming May can table another vote in the first place, and I'm not sure at all about that.

Careening clownishly over the cliff seems like the most likely outcome now, and Labour will share the blame. I think it's very unlikely the public will consider the reality of No Deal a price worth paying for a Labour government either.

well whatever happens in a No Deal scenario Brexiters will blame everything but Brexit and FBPErs aren't exactly warm towards any kind of left-ish Labour Party anyway so

it's just the divorce agreement. future relationship still all to play for. not sure why this deal can't be voted through, then labour win next GE and negotiate an incredibly soft brexit.

that said labour have also pledged to do everything in their power to stop a "damaging Tory brexit" and May's deal is that, according to them

yeah, always the chance of an ill-advised reconciliation before the Decree Absolute

election with a labour majority and lack of dissension in the backbench is not going to happen

May has ruled out a long extension, and the EU has ruled out a short one unless the deal is backed now.

I'm not sure where you're getting 'now' from, unless I'm reading you too literally - Tusk's statement says "If the leaders approve my recommendations and there is a positive vote in the House of Commons next week, we can finalise and formalise the decision on extension in the written procedure."

The most optimistic view is that Tusk is trying to bounce May into a long extension but also knows that the best case scenario for the EU itself is to get the WA over the line. I don't think that's going to happen.

I’m a bit lost - tusk is saying a short extension would be granted if the current deal is voted through next week, but doesn’t bercow’s bombshell preclude that anyway?

May has told the 1922 Committee to fuck off, i'm seeing reports

wins i believe there are procedural work-arounds to allow another MV

Understand that if there is a statement later, the PM will not be resigning and she will not be triggering a general election.

Instead, she will attempt to go above the heads of MPs and appeal to the country to get behind her deal.

— Theo Usherwood (@theousherwood) March 20, 2019

sounds a bit fash

appeal to the country to do what exactly

https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/mailsabs.jpg

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PXM6BOXBCIc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRZIXcbRJx4

I'm not sure where you're getting 'now' from, unless I'm reading you too literally - Tusk's statement says "If the leaders approve my recommendations and there is a positive vote in the House of Commons next week, we can finalise and formalise the decision on extension in the written procedure."

mean a long *extension

telt

No it doesn’t. It is perfectly clear that a longer extension is possible for other options - with an emergency summit following a Commons defeat.

We must never be bounced into backing a terrible option, even more so when other options exist and are infinitely preferable. https://t.co/zbapluKL6g

— Seb Dance MEP (@SebDance) March 20, 2019

https://i.imgur.com/523afFJ.gif

lads ill give ye this ye are fuckin mighty craic

Sources have said France, Spain, Belgium and maybe Italy stand prepared to reject an extension without evidence Parliament is now ready to accept a deal and “the deadlock can be broken”.

Some member states worry there is no point to an extension as, even after 1,000 days of negotiation, Theresa May’s deal keeps being rejected and the EU cannot move any further towards the UK.

One source said: “We’re not against an extension per se but we need to have two things - first a demonstration that the situation has changed and there is a guarantee the extension is for something and second that an extension won’t be detrimental to the EU.

“Yes, a no-deal Brexit would be damaging and it’s absolutely not what we want but I think we’re ready to go to this situation because there are only two solutions - either a deal is accepted or there is no deal.

“The deal has been rejected and it keeps being rejected so if we come to no-deal then so be it.”

It is understood French president Emmanuel Macron believes Brexit is holding up his plans for radical reform of the EU and needs to be brought to a conclusion.

Quite impressive how quickly May has exhausted these guys's patience

1000 days?

That was the minimum she had to work with tbf

it's just the divorce agreement. future relationship still all to play for.

yes, and to some extent being over the line means opposition will coalesce around soft Brexit (no more revocation or 2nd ref, rejoin a distant dream at that point). but we'll still have the same problem: likely a Tory govt and we can't have any nice things while they're still there

and sadly I don't see a Labour majority if the deal goes through, esp if unpopular May stands down and they call a GE right away, while the WA means we've avoided the most immediately obvious Brexit damage. a harder Brexiter will likely be PM and be free to go as hard as they like - can they even renege on the WA and we're back to crashing out early?

that said, the ERG haven't voted for it, so maybe it's not that simple, but I assume they just want to say later that they didn't vote for it and blame May for everything

The political declaration matters, despite the Brexiteers insistence it is meaningless. If a CU isn't agreed to in there, it makes it more a thing to be negotiated for, which means we'll have to give up something else to get it. This deal is a bad deal, no matter what tbh

the declaration that the backstop wont matter once theyre out makes the whole thing a naked bad faith farce tbh

both otm

but despite that and despite having just listed reasons to be suspicious of the deal it's still better than no deal and I can't see any routes left open to a better outcome any more. hoping someone can persuade me I'm wrong on that one

channel 4 correspondent just described brexit as a game of 3d chicken

He then asked a Polish woman to talk to her gut.

Can any further motions for alternatives be laid down or is it just fiddling while Rome burns at this stage?

So she’s to request a short extension in the hopes of strong arming everyone into the deal? Surely, /surely/ we are at no-conf time by now?