"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

Right so I'm not entirely keeping up, are we leaving the EU on the 29th of March or what?

That would be controversial for Bercow not to allow it tho'?

Bercow is insufferable, his saving grace is that he annoys Tories.

Julian Lewis 🙄🙄🙄🙄

xxp would be in line with what passes for the constitution in this country.

GET HIM LAURA

Probably not leaving on the 29th unless May's deal goes through next week.

anyway, enough for the evening - we will need our energies for next week ugh

not been following votes tonight - were they good or bad

Yes, they were.

What did Julian Lewis say?

Kate Hoey and chums standing for Brexit is one thing; voting to keep Tory control a whole other

Probably not leaving on the 29th unless May's deal goes through doesn't go through next week.

Brexit Secretary did not back what is now Government policy to seek an extension - Voted against it alongside 7 other Cabinet ministers.

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) March 14, 2019

It's a peculiar type of masochism to put the deal up for a third massive defeat when the leverage she had has been removed.

corbyn looking more and more like he's sensible and open to compromise. may looking intransigent, reckless and slightly unhinged

mmmmmmm those are some good optics

‘Slightly unhinged’?

Yeah yeah you all care about Brexit but really important injunction late today at the High Court has stopped, potentially, hundreds of immigration removals amid allegations that a key Home Office policy is totally illegal.

— Dominic Casciani (@BBCDomC) March 14, 2019

Anyway, here’s the speech Stephen Barclay gave in favour of an extension about 10 minutes before voting against an extension pic.twitter.com/Ok1HJUgxiK

— James Felton (@JimMFelton) March 14, 2019

gyac, that is indeed good news. Medical Justice do great work.

Should be noted though that as long as the UK allows for indefinite detention, stopping removals often means only that the individuals concerned will then be put into a detention centre, for an undetermined lenght of time.

On the topic of mental health while in detention, the current status is that only the GPs working for specific centres can diagnose someone as being too mentally unwell to be in detention - they can then theoretically be transferred to a hospital. But since conditions in there are such that pretty much everyone has a legitimate claim to say that they're affecting their mental health, these GPs a) only step in for the most serious cases and b) tend to resort to overmedication by default. So people get drugged enough that they become apathetic about the situation they're in, and might even volunteer for removal.

best country in the world, god save our gracious queen

this might be a bad idea, as I'd have thought should be obvious to anyone who's been alive for more than 3 minutes:

Alan Barry, founder of the group [Justice for Northern Ireland Veterans], said he would talk to ferry companies and coach operators to allow former soldiers "to come and march on Londonderry to show people we will not tolerate one of our own being prosecuted".

and among other things not looking good re HMG's understanding or recognition of GFA:

To claim her Irish-citizenship-based EU right of residence for her US husband, DeSouza has been told she must first renounce her British citizenship – which was acquired at birth automatically but never desired, sought or claimed. ... To renounce it she must first prove it, assert it with the legal declaration that "I am a British citizen", remain for six months in the UK, and then, having paid a £373 charge, repudiate it.

also last night I felt quite positive abt the extension vote but have gone back to feeling that there are no good options available and we're probably still on course for no deal, or even if May's deal passes will end up with something v similar when she stands down. so if someone would like to put forward a more optimistic worldview, that would be lovely, thank you. (yes the removals news is good news)

great post. I look forward to the time that SWL rejoins corbyn’s council of economic advisers
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2019/03/triangulation-or-bipartisanship-does.html?m=1

I agree with........ windmill jolyon on the debate re bringing back the deal for MVs 3 through 10

Good to see Carole maintaining that sense of proportion and ability to not crowbar in her issue of the day at a sensitive time.

I voted Remain, but the sight of prominent anti-Brexit voices using the massacre of 49 Muslims to bang their drum is beyond insulting. How dare you piggyback on this story to score a cheap point against commentators you deem as insufficiently outraged https://t.co/pkBmKk3J4t

— Ash Sarkar (@AyoCaesar) March 15, 2019

Andrew Neil, ofc, is the chair of the spectator which publishes tons of racists and probably the most Islamophobia you’ll see in a “respectable” publication.

The wider issue she's talking about - that tech companies are enabling the spread of hate doctrines and fascist propaganda and even now are hosting footage of the massacre - is right and she's 100% right to make that point.

It's the *exactly* that grates, the shoehorning of everything into the wider narrative we were talking about. There's a time to explore that stuff but it isn't now while victims are still fighting for their lives and it certainly isn't to make a point in an ongoing media beef.

http://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=1542

from 15th

Survation showing LAB with 4 point lead. YouGov has CON with 4 pointlead

not sure if Zawhawi has anything to do with YouGov any more, but their impartiality is very suspect. Especially after that timely "hmm interesting most people don't even care about trains" poll came out just as season tickets had another huge hike. But 4 pts either way has been a consistent story since 2017, or the tories 10 pts ahead if you believe most QT guests.

6 points is margin of error right? so any fluctuation inside that is just noise.

But 4 pts either way has been a consistent story since 2017

That was the case for a very long time - about 18 months of stasis - with YouGov consistently giving the Tories about 3% more compared to the other polling companies. But there have been a number of polls over the last 2 or 3 weeks from different companies (not just YouGov) all giving the Tories a relatively big lead (up to 10% ahead) and showing something of a collapse in the Labour vote, well outside the margin of error, so I don't know what to make of this Survation one.

Brexit is distorting the numbers and the Tory vote is reflective of how many Bluekippers are bloating their vote. I’d expect the betrayal narrative to siphon some of them off.

yes and outside a GE cycle (where media impartiality and purdah applies, even though I expect next time round the media might fly closer to the wind on this) I'd be wary of reading too much into the polling. here's the recent polling though:

Here's a round-up of the latest polls.

Con 35, Lab 39, LD 10 (Survation)
Con 35, Lab 31, LD 12 (YouGov)
Con 41, Lab 31, LD 8 (Kantar)
Con 39, Lab 34, LD 12 (BMG)
Con 40, Lab 31, LD 11 (YouGov)
Con 40, Lab 34, LD 9 (Opinium)

March average (so far) ~
Con 38, Lab 33, LD 10

— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) March 16, 2019

Brilliant footage captures the precise moment a soggy and furious Farage realises it’s over for him 👋#MarchToLeavepic.twitter.com/tQ98tS0F5m

— dave M ❄️ 🥕 (@davemacladd) March 16, 2019

Tony Connelly somewhat confirming what I thought upthread about the extension nonsense.

Italy has grave national interests in avoiding a No Deal Brexit, not least the large Italian population in the UK, not just the post 2010-wave, but those from the 1950s 60s. People I've spoken to on the Italian side raise the issue of Windrush when they talk about No Deal.

— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) March 15, 2019

LOL, the one guy I know at work who voted Leave has Italian parents.

gotta no respect?

if we accept that may’s success hinges on convincing the 15-20 hardcore ERG hold outs - what is their current calculation?

are they simply holding out for commitment that may will stand down (so a hard brexit PM can do phase 2) and then come in behind the deal ?

or do we think they’ll never come in behind the deal and if so why?! for example - do they think the FTPA will allow them to support a VONC and then try find a government in the house which is more aligned to their strategic aims ? seems unlikely. or are they so unreasonable that they are aiming to bring the roof in on the whole thing and hope in the ensuing chaos (calculating that may would never revoke) we’ll no deal by accident?

My impression is that the hope for the latter has died this week - some of them genuinely consider the WA to be a beartrap that leaves the UK as subs not doms rule takers not rules makers, possibly forever.

UK Subs - Brand New Age

are.... they becoming self aware

A problem with May’s article in today’s Telegraph is she assumes the country will ‘come back together’ if her deal passes. This is nonsense. One obvious point: the causes of brexit were not in general anything to do with the EU, therefore leaving it will solve nothing.

— Brian Cox (@ProfBrianCox) March 17, 2019

Do you remember when we used to laugh that a UKIP march was mainly made up of a man dressed as a weird elf? If you take a step back and look, there’s not a great big dividing line between that and what much of the pro-EU movement has turned into.

— James Patrick 🐐🔮 (@J_amesp) March 16, 2019

Good piece about May in Der Spiegel. If you’ve read the David Runciman piece about her in the LRB, you’ll recall what he said about her party loyalty there too.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/theresa-may-s-brexit-disaster-a-1258101.html

lol Lammy blaming because comic relief viewers are down by 600 000 is pure bullshit. Maybe people just don't like smug tax dodgers pretending they give a fuck about 3rd world poverty, or maybe its just nauseating unwatchable shit. But he's definitely not that influential!

Comic Relief’s Red Nose Day earnings fell by £8m this year after criticism from Labour MP David Lammy that the charity fundraising event promotes a “white saviour” complex and a fall in the television audience.

the graun as well!

With terrestrial TV audiences rising all the time i for one am shocked

Lars Løkke Rasmussen is a nobody clinging on to power and I can't wait to - hopefully - be rid of him, but this is a good line: "It is difficult to give people a helping hand if they have both of their hands in their pockets."

lol dk has a real prime minister just like in Borgen, cute

you wouldn't take the piss if you saw the bacon exports numbers and the military industrial complex in the Faroe islands!

It's a real Borg as well

Politic's is back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (wolf Howl). pic.twitter.com/ciFgwWDmmL

— Trevor Bastard NVQ Level 2, CEO Grannymugger Media (@GRANNYMUGGER) March 17, 2019

*record scratch* *freeze frame*

Yep. That's me. You're probably wondering how I got into this situation pic.twitter.com/6F6ws49znv

— Mal Function (@MaelVogue) March 17, 2019

this paul sweeney story is bullshit of the first order