"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

Mavericks to the bitter end.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/14/dup-leader-arlene-foster-ready-to-strike-deal-with-may-to-end-brexit-impasse

LOL if the DUP vote with the government and they still lose.

yeah, that would be extremely sweet

wondering how to get a few paras to just walk in and gun down the entire dup seeing as its always the right approach

It'll call the bluff of the ERG and we can find out whether they give an actual flying fuck about the backstop and NI, I'm guessing they don't.

Foster said it was “not only about the attorney general changing the advice” and said reassurances had to come as a package. She said: “When you come to the end of the negotiation, that’s when you really start to see the whites of people’s eyes and you get down to the point where you can make a deal.”

Reading this as "When people eyes are wide enough because they realise that we're actually properly a shower of lunatics, that's the sweet spot, right there"

xp I mean, 65% of NI is in favour of the backstop, if that's any clue.

Yeah but they're also in favour of the EU. The ERG problem with the backstop is the overweening CONTROL it gives those Euros over Britannia

there must be 10-15 hardcore ERG who would sooner pull the pin on the gov than vote through MV4

https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/2296589767332422

Everyone is getting over-excited.

Calm down.

The idea that Theresa May’s will seize victory from the jaws of humiliation with her constitutionally dubious decision to put her Brexit deal to a vote for a record-breaking third time next week is highly questionable.

First even if the Attorney General admits with the full magisterial regret for which he is notorious that he stupidly excused from his initial interpretation of the palimpsested backstop that - after all - there is a unilateral escape route from the backstop via the Vienna Convention, this would be just one hired lawyer’s opinion, and an oddly convenient one at that.

It won’t change all Brexiters’ minds.

And as Steve Baker, their remorselessly rational leader said on my show last night, he won’t be bullied or bribed by the PM to change his mind and back her deal, even faced with the threat from her that Brexit could be delayed till long after we’re all dead.

So if Northern Ireland’s DUP MPs are seduced by Cox’s Viennese Waltz with Jacob Rees-Mogg (who right at the end of Tuesday night’s Brexit debate prompted Steve Barclay to “find” Cox’s lost words on the benign impact of the Vienna Convention), some 20 odd Tory Brexiteers probably won’t be.

And May loses again.

But let us allow her to dream. Let’s assume her combination of Cox’s carrot and her NeverExit stick (her threat that the only allowable Brexit delay sees us participating in elections to the EU parliament) corals all the Tory ERG Brexiters, even then she would win by just the thinnest, most gossamer-like of margins.

And that’s a huge problem for her.

Because to make a legal reality of her deal, she then has to win a whole series of votes on the contentious facilitating legislation, most notably the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

And as the business secretary Greg Clark also said on my show last night there is every chance she would fail to get that legislation through, even if she wins meaningful vote 3 next week.

For the avoidance of doubt EU leaders and Brussels negotiatiors are acutely aware that if she wins by just a handful of votes, her Brexit would still be in jeopardy. Which is why they will be wary at the EU council in seven days of giving the UK even a modest Brexit delay, were her vote to pass by one or two.

They and Clark want a much more comfortable margin of victory in the back-from-the-dead Brexit vote.

Which could only be delivered if, as Clark implies she must, she reaches across to Labour by scrubbing her red line that the UK must never join a customs union.

But that in turn could see Corbyn facilitating what his colleagues scornfully see as “May’s Brexit” and permanently rupturing his party, given the religious passion of some Labour MPs and members for a referendum.

Every route to a rational, managed Brexit is fraught with challenges and contradictions.

The underlying Brexit reality is that chaos and uncertainty still rein.

And although at some point soon I may drop my central projection that a slightly delayed no-deal Brexit, in May or June, remains the probable outcome - because it is the default under UK and EU law, and the law is all we have - I have not done so yet.

the noes have it

(amendment to amendment)

30 june deadline: 311 for, 314 against

really edifying sight today watching people say not enough dominos have fallen yet to push a PV, having excoriated corbyn/starmer’s methodical march towards a potential PV for two years

plebiscites are bad but at least you can fix the last one with the next one, or whatever

So if Northern Ireland’s DUP MPs are seduced by Cox’s Viennese Waltz with Jacob Rees-Mogg (who right at the end of Tuesday night’s Brexit debate prompted Steve Barclay to “find” Cox’s lost words on the benign impact of the Vienna Convention), some 20 odd Tory Brexiteers probably won’t be.

20 Labout Leave MPs could offset this - and idk what Peston is going on about. If she wins vote by one its deal approved, why would those ppl turn around on the Withdrawal agreement bill or whatever subsequent votes?

Government have just won a vote for a change. By 2 votes. Don't ask me what the fuck it was about though.

Yeah I just switched this on & am lost.

Andrew Adonis seems to think he understands everything that's going on, so panic over lads, sleep well tonight

The defeat of Lucy Powell’s amendment, for an Art 50 extension only to the end of June, is significant & very good. The presumption therefore is that the Commons would support a long extension, which is what we need

— Andrew Adonis (@Andrew_Adonis) March 14, 2019

another day of parliamentary numberwang

Ok the one that just lost:

May narrowly defeats bid to let MPs take control of parliamentary timetable by majority of two

The Benn amendment has been defeated by 314 votes to 312 - a majority of two.

really edifying sight today watching people say not enough dominos have fallen yet to push a PV, having excoriated corbyn/starmer’s methodical march towards a potential PV for two years

Goverment win again.

shout out to the guys singing "we're not going to Brexit, NO we're not going to Brexit!" to the tune of Twisted Sister's "We're Not Gonna Take It" while Huw Edwards presents from outside Parliament

sure if we are voting against an extension we...crash out, or are we voting for an even longer extension than June?

Not necessarily, I could see a panicky last minute revoke. Could also vote on it again next week.

Sorry MPs are voting on the extension now..

That this house:

(1) notes the resolutions of the house of 12 and 13 March, and accordingly agrees that the government will seek to agree with the European Union an extension of the period specified in article 50(3);

(2) agrees that, if the house has passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1) (b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then the government will seek to agree with the European Union a one-off extension of the period specified in article 50(3) for a period ending on 30 June 2019 for the purpose of passing the necessary EU exit legislation; and

(3) notes that, if the house has not passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then it is highly likely that the European council at its meeting the following day would require a clear purpose for any extension, not least to determine its length, and that any extension beyond 30 June 2019 would require the United Kingdom to hold European parliament elections in May 2019.

wait, what does that mean?

Passed easily.

its delayed until june then yeah?

The 202 are white knuckled no deal at any costs types?

i haven't been watching this, has she fucked off or was she not there?

Unless the deal passes next week.

But without the threat of crashing out, where’s the leverage to scare MPs into voting for it?

meaningful vote 4

So there will be a 3rd vote on May's deal next week. If that falls through she will ask the EU for an extension.

"meaningful"

But Bercow may not allow that vote to proceed.

god i fucking hate hilary benn

xps etc. lol @ all of this. May isn't even in Parliament.

Right so I'm not entirely keeping up, are we leaving the EU on the 29th of March or what?

That would be controversial for Bercow not to allow it tho'?

Bercow is insufferable, his saving grace is that he annoys Tories.

Julian Lewis 🙄🙄🙄🙄

xxp would be in line with what passes for the constitution in this country.

GET HIM LAURA

Probably not leaving on the 29th unless May's deal goes through next week.

anyway, enough for the evening - we will need our energies for next week ugh

not been following votes tonight - were they good or bad

Yes, they were.

What did Julian Lewis say?