2020 Democratic presidential primary

ugh another ugly piece of these conversations are all the ppl on the right marshaling their jews and the ppl on the left theirs to demonstrate that their opinion is kosher

saw a picture of a bunch of netueri karta taking a photo op in tlaib's office urgh

So, I’m working with a client today to conduct a focus group of black women who are likely to vote in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary. I have the client’s permission to tweet out anecdotes and observations, but they’d prefer not to be named.

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

worth a glance

nothing terribly surprising there to me

nothing too surprising in there I don't think. I was wondering what their take on Bernie would be, but

I would rather starve than work for him :)

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

I actually think Kamala’s best path to shoring up support among black women in SC (and beyond) may be for white liberals to keep attacking her for stuff they assume black people find salient.

— Danny Barefoot (@dannybarefoot) March 5, 2019

there were at least two things on Biden in the news today (that desgregation talk from the 70's, and another where he talked about superpredators being 'beyond the pale'...ok yeah maybe that's stretching it and I doubt he was really trying to speak in coded messages there) and I really think he's done. People are not that forgiving now. I seriously doubt he's a racist and if he had attitudes about bussing back then that were maybe fairly prevalent.... people aren't willing, now, to extend a lot of forgiveness over that shit. But who knows. In some cases it seems like white liberals who are more angry about it than the Af Am community.

I don't think anyone ITT has argued that arguments about her prosecutorial record would ever resonate with Dem voters. (I think once or twice I've even argued the opposite.) xp

it resonates with fringe super far-left people I know who are antifa and think everyone who isn't with them is a cop

white liberals to keep attacking her for stuff they assume black people find salient

like the Snoop Dogg scandal?

yeah but they're like 1% of primary voters at best xp

I posted the tweets to show the timidity and brainlessness of pollsters btw

sherrod brown out (or rather, not in)

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sherrod-brown-wont-run-for-president

i like him, but this is probably a good idea, even if it was motivated by Brown's sense that he couldn't win; he can now protect his senate seat.

Danny Barefoot found a fan

And two follows ❤️

— JEN KIRKMAN (@JenKirkman) March 5, 2019

What Barefoot says he does is so wildly unethical that I actually kinda hope it's all made up, rather than merely strongly suspecting that it is.

As Sanders begins to crisscross the country for his 2020 presidential bid, proving he can consolidate the Democratic base will be his biggest test.

“We were criticized for being too white; that was a correct criticism,” Sanders said on the Breakfast Club radio show in March. “We were criticized for being too male; that was a correct criticism. That’s going to change.”

It’s starting to. An analysis of recent polls from November of 2018 to March 2019 shows Sanders is more popular with people of color than white people, and women like Sanders as much as men do, if not more. He leads every other possible 2020 contender with Latino voters and lags behind only Joe Biden — who hasn’t announced a bid yet — with African-American voters. Sanders’ polling numbers with black voters are double that of Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), according to a March Morning Consult poll.

so on the campaign trail he's going to be a non-white woman of color?

if does that he's got my vote

Hey, it worked for Cuomo

Anyway, I think his insistence on collective rather than individual language, especially pronounced this time, is an interesting tactic

thumbs up

NEWS: Elizabeth Warren is proposing a new regulatory plan that would break up big tech companies like Amazon, Google and Facebook and roll back acquisitions like Facebook's deals for WhatsApp and Instagram. https://t.co/xZboYv9Cby

— Patrick Healy (@patrickhealynyt) March 8, 2019

Huh.

Yeah, I am stoked for a President Sanders or a President Warren.

legislation that would prohibit platforms from both offering a marketplace for commerce and participating in that marketplace.

Does this mean that e.g. Amazon couldn't sell AmazonBasics products on its marketplace website?

i imagine they'd have to split their product-making arm off as a separate business. like the Bell breakup, which divorced western electric (the entity that made all the phones and wires) from AT&T. or the hollywood studios having to sever from their respective theater chains. different situations in several ways, but it wouldn't put us in uncharted waters i don't think.

Tbc, it sounded reasonable; just checking that I was understanding it right.

shes trying to place a volcker rule on them too.

even if Warren doesn't win the nomination, I hope her relentless injection of good ideas into the Dem mainstream will have a lifting-all-boats effect. hell, you could probably argue it's hurting her actual individual campaign to have so many relatively concrete proposals on the record, such is the deeply depressing nature of 21st century politics.

how i'd rank candidates' chances of winning the primary currently

Biden > Sanders > Harris > Booker > Warren > miscellaneous cipher

I like Liz Warren and I will probably vote for her in the primary

xp god I hope you're wrong about Biden

Biden is a nonstarter

he will be Anita Hill'd 24/7

he'll be a Hillary type candidate who will soak up primary votes and leave the general in utter precariousness

Biden supporters want everyone to stop bitching all the time so they can live out the rest of their life in peace.

I hope that if Biden gets into the race, Obama doesn't immediately put his thumb on the scale for him. I kind of doubt he would do that, especially not early on, but I think it could have a big impact if he did.

granted this polling data is extremely limited, but it looks like if Biden's in a pretty good spot, as long as he doesn't follow the trajectory of Jeb!: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

the establishment seems to be backing Booker & Harris (and Klololbuchar): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/

obv it's still very early in the game & i desperately want someone smarter than me to tell me i'm wrong and that it's gonna be liz & bernie all the way

^ i mean that earnestly

Obama didn't forbid Biden from running in 2016, but he noticeably didn't encourage it either. I suspect he has even less reason to do for 2020. Obama will probably be entirely hands off this primary until the convention.

i thought obama was a booker guy

If Biden doesn't run, I could see him backing Harris full tilt.

But yeah, more likely he stays out as an active participant and sticks to Netflix or whatever

Yeah, he's got a history with Harris. She was in contention for AG post-Holder until she withdrew herself by intimating she was gonna run for Boxer's seat.

I'm not crazy about Harris but I have to say if I was playing Let's Make a Deal and I could either have Harris in the bank or take my chances with what's behind door number 3, and standing on the other side might be Warren, Sanders, or Biden, I would possibly just take the bird in the hand in that scenario, that's how much Biden sucks.

lol I like Warren but she just lost California

She was gonna lose California in the primary anyway because Harris. She'd do ok in the general were she the nominee.

that’s a low bar lol

This is the kind of proposal that I’d cheer from her as a Senator. But as a presidential candidate I fear she’s getting over her skis a bit.

That proposal is kind of a duh moment that no one had tried to do it before. But it makes perfect sense now. We should be treating these huge monolithic tech companies more like investment banks especially since they have accumulated so much information on individuals. I would want me info treated like material non-public information where it shouldn't be distributed or viewed between entities without my consent. Amazon shouldn't be the platform and the product and the marketmaker and the bank all under one roof.

She isn’t over her skis. She is probably has the most comrpehensive understanding of regulatory policy of anyone in the Senate.

xp

I agree, if Congress is going to craft legislation on this issue it’s going to be a very complex process and I’d like to see her there working on it. I don’t see this as a winner in a presidential contest though.