2020 Democratic presidential primary

(but maybe?)

maybe if Warren had a Brooklyn accent

recently decided i'll happily vote for whoever makes it out of this alive

in the past I've been bummed about my vote not mattering but it feels pretty good this time around

the thing is, anyone who achieves a certain measure of political power and has the ambition to be president is going to be an asshole to some degree. most of them are not people we would want as colleagues or bosses.

obama actually seems to have been utterly remarkable in that people generally don't have anything (or much) bad to say about his interpersonal behavior. even carter, who at this point seems to have achieved secular sainthood, had a reputation as brittle when he was president. (note i am not indulging in obama worship. his being a "nice guy"--scare quotes not really necessary i suppose--does not make up for his policy of drone murders or anything else. it's just an observation about his personal behavior.)

i totally can imagine bernie as stony and unfeeling. he certainly is incredibly single-minded. it takes a certain monomania to be so fixed in his principles and aims for so many decades. and it doesn't surprise me that that manifests in some untoward ways.

i'm not excusing it. but finding a qualified, reasonably principled, promising candidate for higher office who isn't something of an asshole, esp. in the workplace, maybe not really be in the cards.

that ended up being a much longer and more boring post than i had intended.

as seen on internet: "joe biden is hiring staff in new hampshire... heeeeere we go"

no thank's

I had a family member, who I thought knew better, tell me recently that they were hoping for a Biden/Beto ticket. WTF?

Unless that family member is highly active in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina politics their preferences today mean little.

his candidacy is going to result in even more ass-showing op-eds than klobuchar's

xp

No, they live in Texas. I'm not claiming their opinion is consequential. Just think it's extremely weird for anyone to want this ticket.

his candidacy is going to result in even more ass-showing op-eds than klobuchar's

― bhad bundy (Simon H.), 26. februar 2019 19:04 (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

A lot of that is priced in already, though, people know who Biden is. I fear Bidens candidacy will be the Green Book of the primary campaigns.

Republican in my office maintains that Biden is the only candidate he’d vote for in the general from the Dem field.

good thing we don't need him (your colleague that is).

I’m not trying to extrapolate anything from one anecdotal conversation with a guy who voted Trump over Hillary but we are in PA where Biden might actually represent a strong electoral play nb I’m not a fan myself and he’s nowhere near the top of my preferences (tho not at the bottom either)

A guy who votes Republican but would vote for a Democrat - yeah, that might be someone you'd want to attract.

Unless Dems are only interested in popular vote victories from here on out.

A lot of that is priced in already, though, people know who Biden is

There hasn't been a full airing of his creepy grabby tendencies though, and people will spring to his defence when it happens

or maybe activate young voters and non-voters, especially women and POC, and get them excited about a candidate. and Biden ain't that candidate. xpost.

a guy who voted Trump over Hillary

This should tell you all you'd need to know about the probability he'd vote for any Democratic nominee, including Biden, when the moment came to mark his ballot. Sure, he might give Biden a bit more consideration, but in the end he'd think 'I just can't hand more power to the Democrats. I align with the Republican agenda and must vote for Trump to maintain it. However much I am uncomfortable with Trump, a Democrat would be worse.'

Republican in my office maintains that Biden is the only candidate he’d vote for in the general from the Dem field.

My take is that people who identify as Republicans say stuff like this and even to some extent mean it but in the end are going to vote for the person with an R after their name 99% of the time.

Pierce:

He's had almost four years now to decide if he wants the job. He's had almost four years now to decide if he wants to go through what you have to go through to get the job. With all due respect to his family situation, that's more than enough time to make up your mind on these questions. In 2016, with his son's death still fresh in his mind, he passed. (Understandable, although the question intrigues me as to whether, absent Beau's death, Biden would have told the Obama people to stuff it and run against Hillary Rodham Clinton—and, as it turned out, Bernie Sanders—anyway. Now that would've been a campaign.) There is no reason for him still to be puzzling this whole thing out while freezing the top of every poll of actual Democratic contenders.

That said, there's a lot in Joe Biden's political history to make you wonder whether or not he's really the juggernaut his name-recognition indicates he might be. He's run for president twice and flamed out badly both times. In the days of the #MeToo movement, and with a strong group of accomplished women already in the field, does the party really want the guy who took a dive on Anita Hill? (Or, more precisely, on Angela Wright.) And does Joe Biden want to get up on a stage and debate his shilling for the credit card industry behind an indefensible bankruptcy bill in 2005, a measure that occasioned the first move into national politics from an obscure Harvard Law professor named Elizabeth Warren?

I think it’s silly to gauge Biden’s appeal based on pre-VP runs. He got 8 years of great publicity as Obama’s buddy. He’s a much stronger candidate now than he’s been in past primaries.

yes this is true but -- and I can't stress this enough -- fuck joe biden

biden’s gonna burn through any lasting goodwill from the obama years and/or the onion’s caricature of him in about three days once people start looking properly at both his political history and his creepiness towards women

last two posts otm

From a game-theory perspective it probably makes sense for him to declare as late as possible. He doesn’t need to build name recognition and I assume fundraising won’t be a problem. So getting in early just gives more time for people to try to chip away at his support with the kind of issues mentioned .

Biden needs to go ASAP

via Raymond C, some useful tactics

https://medium.com/@ScottSoriano/welcome-to-the-stupid-season-some-basic-tools-for-mastering-the-2020-election-season-becoming-a-d634063cd0f8

There have been a lot of early-polling poll front runners this many months ahead of the election who never came within a whiff of the nomination. A presidential campaign is long and brutal, and no amount of great publicity as Obama’s buddy will save Biden from his own laxity and poor judgment. I predict that if he runs he'll be toast by the end of Super Tuesday, if not beforehand.

^^^^

potential biden candidacy a huge hilarious joke until further notice

I predict three racial gaffes in announcement speech.

and he trips on a flip-flop on his way back to his Trans Am.

I think it’s silly to gauge Biden’s appeal based on pre-VP runs. He got 8 years of great publicity as Obama’s buddy. He’s a much stronger candidate now than he’s been in past primaries.

― o. nate, Tuesday, February 26, 2019 1:53 PM (thirty-eight minutes ago)

From a game-theory perspective it probably makes sense for him to declare as late as possible. He doesn’t need to build name recognition and I assume fundraising won’t be a problem. So getting in early just gives more time for people to try to chip away at his support with the kind of issues mentioned .

― o. nate, Tuesday, February 26, 2019 2:06 PM (twenty-five minutes ago)

both otm. his popularity and viability are probably underplayed by most of the people/pundits in our orbit. I still think, given the wealth of other options, he should stay out

I also think the number of people who only like Biden because of the Onion is maybe not as big as some think

thinking about the howard dean scream which feels like prehistory now

I would think Warren in particular is looking forward Biden running so she can eviscerate him on the bankruptcy bill. Gonna be ugly, folks.

she shouldnt run if shes going to hurt his chances iirc actually

^ uncharacteristically clumsy

vmic tbh

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/02/27/sources-beto-orourke-wontchallenge-john-cornyn-senate-paving-way-presidential-bid

Running for VP woooo

Its so crowded

lame

i really hate he wasn't able to unseat Cruz but i'm reeeeeeal tired of this dude now

From a purely selfish POV, he’s more likely to win the presidency than unseat Cornyn Imo and he’s extremely unlikely to win the presidency. Cruz is another matter but Cruz is not on the ballot in 2020. But this sucks.

Beto's out of office. He's ambitious. There seem to be people with influence and money who are pushing him to run for president, who'll pay for his campaign expenses for a while. He'll automatically gain name recognition and the sort of stature that comes with national media attention. He has nothing to lose even if he loses. Makes sense that he'd give it a shot and hope that luck breaks his way.

i really hate he wasn't able to unseat Cruz but i'm reeeeeeal tired of this dude now

― A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will), Thursday, February 28, 2019 12:06 AM (sixteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

his sell-by date came up awful quick, didn't it?

I still think that ultimately he'd be Beto better off getting a job w/the DNC, and maybe eventually challenging Abbott in '22.

his sell-by date came up awful quick, didn't it?

Anyone looks good put up against a Lovecraftian fish-man.

In a weird sort of way, it kinda personally gives me hope.

https://i.imgur.com/hXHpAnS.jpg