2020 Democratic presidential primary

I can support this theory with stats but you need to go through my office assistant to get them.

Self xp

xps to sund4r but are you predicting/speculating that there are other dem candidates that get better policies through?

if so, idk do i see that. obama struggled enough and im not sure anyone in the field is in his class

if the argument is "theyd all achieve the same but bernie is an old white man" then hey good for u kinda thing thats fine

if the president might be an aspirational figurehead type that doesnt get bogged down in wonkishness (that might possibly only serve to combat that aspirational quality cf obama again) then bernie would imo seem a better bet than many again

Yeah. I have a theory that he helped Hillary if anything because he got more people interested in the political process. If hillary was seen to have run unopposed people may have been more skeptical or bored by her than they were.

I didn’t say it wasn’t a bad theory. It is a theory though.

I actually think it's pretty sound, though of course basically impossible to verify or debunk

I wasn't necessarily making an argument for other candidates over Sanders. I was tempering my enthusiasm for the platform announcement (which did sound good). 3xp to darraghmac

Without any clear statistics (and how would we get them?), it seems pointless to me to try to analyse the extent to which a primary candidate helped or hurt the winner of the nomination, unless he e.g. refused to endorse her or campaigned against her in the general, which did not happen.

In any case, the idea that he was a nader-type spoiler is preposterous

he ran his campaign past a point where he had any reasonable path to victory. at the very least you can make a claim that that wasn’t good for Clinton. unless of course you’re operating with this theory that the guy who spent half a year making the country associate Clinton with Goldman Sachs and disillusioning Democrats on her was actually good for her.

Did people blame Jesse Jackson for Michael Dukakis's loss?

She associated herself with goldman sachs

ah yes, it was bernie who forced hillary into a decades-long relationship with goldman sachs, the scoundrel

You could point to 50 things that provided the margin of victory for trump in this election because the margin was so slim. Bernie’s not the only thing, but he’s on that list, same with the 00 election and nader. (That one is more clear cut.) if the Dukakis margin had been thin too, that might be a credible claim.

xp

as well argue that hillary spoiled his run

but ooops we all know that a berniebro did that once boo hiss

You could point to 50 things that provided the margin of victory for trump in this election because the margin was so slim. Bernie’s not the only thing, but he’s on that list, same with the 00 election and nader. (That one is more clear cut.) if the Dukakis margin had been thin too, that might be a credible claim.

xp

― iatee, Tuesday, February 19, 2019 12:37 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

There's no evidence that Bernie is even on the list.

Is there a precedent for someone losing a primary to a candidate who then lost the presidency, then running against the president the following elections?

Like, has it ever occurred to you that (1) people were already disillusioned with her due to, among other things, 2008 and the Bill Clinton years and (2) that anything negative that could be said about her would have been brought out by the Trump campaign regardless, and (3) she wasn't a good candidate? xp

no none of that has occurred to me

Is there a precedent for someone losing a primary to a candidate who then lost the presidency, then running against the president the following elections?

― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, February 19, 2019 12:40 PM (fifty-four seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Not exactly the same thing, but Jackson lost the 84 primary to Mondale, then ran again in the 88 primary. Gore also lost in the 88 primary but didn't run for president again until 2000.

romney?

I could use a comparative yardstick but this seems fast

Bernie Sanders campaign confirms they raised $1 million in the first 3.5 hours since his announcement.

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) February 19, 2019

I agree Clinton was not a great candidate and yet she did win relatively soundly vs Bernie.

anyway I don’t have the time nor interest to argue about politics with berniebros rn, I am glad that he won’t win the nomination this time because he would obv be a terrible president even if he won. anyone who supports him over warren should do some soul searching as to how they ended up in that spot.

Sure, when he was an out-of-nowhere upstart and Clinton had 100% of the party's backing and an otherwise clear field. And yet he won as many states against her as she did against Obama in 08. xp

berniebrooooos

I think out-of-nowhere upstarts have a distinct advantages these days, you see that everywhere now. I mean one could say she won despite the disillusion you were referencing.

acting as a sort of "activist president" interested in activating citizens to help pressure existing power structures/institutions into necessary change, inviting people to take a more participatory role. In other words exactly what O ended up not doing with the base who were excited about him.

^yes absolutely this

https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif BERNIEBROS https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif
https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif BERNIEBROS https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif
https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif BERNIEBROS https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif
https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif BERNIEBROS https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif
https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif BERNIEBROS https://media.tenor.com/images/1287ca6f11f1301aa4c60dca8e701d3f/tenor.gif
BERNIEBROS

I identify as a bro but not a bernie bro—just a supporter.

I don't think they needed the alert tbh

i sent an ill-advised text to my mom on saturday telling her to pay attention to the news (the "national emergency") because i'd probably be referring to it at some point in the future while screaming at my parents about their terrible politics, which is something i do every 15 years or so.

she finally responded with some good news for "dems and libs": "i guess you know Bernie has thrown his hat in the ring as well as many other libs, socialists, dems. it also appears that dems leaving CA< IL, NY, and other NE states are inhabiting AZ, TX, FL, VA turning them purple if not blue. once this happens the left will be in office a very, very long time. i hope you are having a good day otherwise. luv you"

tempted to advise her to tells the cons and repukicans to take advantage and move to CA, IL, NY, and other NE states and turn them purple if not red, but it would be best just to say "lol, luv u 2"

Srsly STFU w this Berniebro idiocy

Estimates from multiple surveys estimate between 6-12% of people who voted Bernie in the Primary voted for Trump but go on, bestow your facts upon me k3ller

― fuck the NRA (Neanderthal), Tuesday, February 19, 2019 11:52 AM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this meme is basically out of the dinesh d’souza playbook of dishonest use of statistics. never mind historical context, the fact that more hillary voters voted for romney in 08 or more kasich voters voted for hillary in 16...citing this dumb meaningless statistic is a way to...show you can’t read? take out curated online party positioning? show solidarity with neera tanden and peter daou? who even knows?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

anyway I don’t have the time nor interest to argue about politics with berniebros rn, I am glad that he won’t win the nomination this time because he would obv be a terrible president even if he won. anyone who supports him over warren should do some soul searching as to how they ended up in that spot.

― iatee, Tuesday,

Totally understand if you don't want to do this but....why would Bernie be a terrible president? Policies or Personality? I understand people preferring a different candidate but what is that would make him bad?

if the Dukakis margin had been thin too, that might be a credible claim.

So the losing primary candidate is only on the list of things that hurt the nominee in the general when their loss is below a certain margin?

Seriously, though, is there a convention that US primary candidates should withdraw before they are mathematically eliminated (even if they say they will ultimately support their opponent if they win, as Sanders did before the NY primary)? I've not come across that in any sort of election before, including party leadership contests.

stake* out

parties and coalitions are made up of all sorts of people with different priorities that you might not expect based on a candidate’s “base” or their loudest supporters. this is really not difficult to understand

xp

I have an idea. Let's not rehash 2016 and say we did.

citing this dumb meaningless statistic is a way to...show you can’t read? take out curated online party positioning? show solidarity with neera tanden and peter daou?

actually daou is good naou

THREAD: On #Bernie2020#BernieSanders is running for president again. From the bottom of my heart, I ask Clinton and Sanders supporters to avoid replaying 2016. I know it's hard to let go of the mutual animosity, but if we intend to defeat the radical right, we MUST join forces.

— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) February 19, 2019

yeah I saw that! good for him. we’ll see how long it lasts

anyone who supports him over warren should do some soul searching as to how they ended up in that spot.

not antisemitic enough?

(im sorry youre such a person of bullshit, sincerely)

Oof

This thread is a pretty good explanation for why Bernie shouldn't run again, lol

I can see wanting Bernie for a number of good reasons (there’s both valid pragmatic and aspiration cases to be made imo) it’s just that the “everyone sucks but him”/“he’s the only good candidate” voices are super toxic, have been bad for him and everyone.

It's early days. Everyone is running and everyone hopes to become relevant. Only two or three will be relevant one year from now.

AFAICT pretty much every Bernie person I encounter thinks Warren is at least fine

fred, with all due respect, you already benefit from living in a country with the quality of life that bernie wants to bring to america. i don't think you understand how important it was that he made things like a living wage and universal healthcare feel politically possible for the first time.