"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

Blaikblock re her kids is just brutal.

I think it's sweet that she has the language of racial essentialism down

chances of blaiklock having got the calipers out to measure the racial purity of her own kids seems certain to be approaching 100%

Blaiklock is the one who carried around a huge framed photo of her Jamaican husband to hustings to show she wasn’t racist iirc.

the Lolico "me not racist" card.

xyzzzz- do you think labour will commit to a second ref at some point ? the fact the membership want it so much must weigh on the leaderships mind

of course timing is key - they’ve been right to push back against the so called progressives who’d terminate labour w extreme prejudice simply to secure a referendum they’ve shown themselves all too capable of losing again

my wife carries a picture of me around everywhere so people can see my ethnic origin for themselves
jamaica?
no she started of her own accord

labour shd be very alive to big risk in next GE of potentially low turnout ie remainers choosing to stay home

not getting into labour hq with those trousers pal, sorry I don't make the rules pic.twitter.com/MNdsgJ5oTK

— joe (@cillanoir) February 11, 2019

do you think labour will commit to a second ref at some point ? the fact the membership want it so much must weigh on the leaderships mind

Unlikely although I'd rule nothing out. There are one or two things that need to happen before the Leadership make that call. Yes I know < 50 days to Brexit.

please to take to horribly formed joeks thread

my wife carries a picture of me around everywhere so people can see my ethnic origin for themselves
jamaica?
no she started of her own accord

― a surprise challenge that ended with a gunging (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, February 12, 2019 3:58 PM (nineteen minutes ago) Bookmark

i think u mean self-excelsior

well I laughed at that muck so idk what that tells us?

labour shd be very alive to big risk in next GE of potentially low turnout ie remainers choosing to stay home

the above joke is good

it's good because it's so bad

yorkshire's devo proposal shot down by brokenshire

So here's the thing I've been wondering: if the EU will not accept a hard border in Ireland, then by extension they won't accept No Deal. Even if May decides to put party over country and actually drive at the cliff. Does this actually give May significant leverage over the backstop? There will have to be further compromise over it if they don't want to end up with the one thing the backstop is designed to prevent?

I know everyone's pretending they won't negotiate, but there's a world of difference between what they're saying in public and what they'll end up doing.

The EU has zero problem with a border in the sea though

i keep wondering that too

sea border requires a backstop or other non-no-deal situation stet, right?

Except I don't think the EU can impose a border in the Irish Sea? And in any case if that happens then May loses the DUP and the government collapses.

are there any hypothetical brexits that don’t bring down the government ?

it is surely at that point a PV goes into a lab GE manifesto

There isn't enough time for that to happen - it's a referendum on whether to rejoin the EU. Which I imagine will be within a Labour manifesto before too long but not under Corbyn. The next leader will definitely be both left wing and pro-European though.

I think if May manages to get any kind of deal through Parliament then the government holds.

Is it not that the EU will reluctantly accept a hard border based on No Deal idiocy but not be culpable for negotiating one?

So here's the thing I've been wondering: if the EU will not accept a hard border in Ireland, then by extension they won't accept No Deal. Even if May decides to put party over country and actually drive at the cliff. Does this actually give May significant leverage over the backstop?

No deal = a hard border and both social and economic devastation to Ireland, however both will hit the UK far harder. The EU is betting, correctly, that a week of empty shop shelves will put paid to the neo-imperialist bluster.

I would also point out that Irish people are fully aware of both the risks and possible outcomes, but it’s not Leo or the EU who’ll be getting the blame, it’s the UK.

Maybe things would be different if the Conservatives weee capable of demonstrating the barest knowledge of or concern about Ireland; if they weren’t relying on a party who keep accusing Ireland of trying to “annex” Nortjetn Ireland; or if you could go a week without a diplomatic fuckup with someone saying we’re not food secure (lol) or that we should be threatened into submission (lol and also go fuck yourself).

The UK didn’t give two fucks about Ireland then or now. If they had been able to paint the EU as the ones to blame, then that’s one thing, but...gestures to entirety of post above

Is it not that the EU will reluctantly accept a hard border based on No Deal idiocy but not be culpable for negotiating one?

How would Ireland be f’d by brexit if they’re in the EU still? Loss of access to UK ports being able to handle import load?

Cross border agribusiness, food exports, horses...

Just saw Jeremy Corbyn arrive at the Harry Leslie Smith memorial over the road, on my way back from Waitrose with my shopping. NBD, did not stop to harangue him about Brexit.

Traitor!

Gyac otm but while EU can’t implement border in Irish Sea, it can use the offer of one to defang any perceived May leverage.

It’s infuriating the way the rockets present what is a big benefit to the UK (a UK-wide backstop) as a negative to be avoided. When the EU withdraws that offer post no-Deal they’ll probably start insisting it must be UK-wide again

could have reported this em

Before Xmas I was told by one senior cabinet minister that Mays plan was to keep delaying vote until there was no option left but her deal. Nothing I’ve seen since has made me think she’s come even an inch off course.The trips to Brussels /chats with labour are window dressing 1/

— emily m (@maitlis) February 12, 2019

May's Turnip Surprise

It’s infuriating the way the rockets present what is a big benefit to the UK (a UK-wide backstop) as a negative to be avoided. When the EU withdraws that offer post no-Deal they’ll probably start insisting it must be UK-wide again

totally - the backstop is in many ways what the EU always insisted was impossible

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/12/theresa-mays-brexit-tactic-my-way-or-a-long-delay

But Robbins, the most senior civil servant involved in the Brexit process, was overheard by a reporter from ITV, holding a late-night conversation in which he appeared to suggest she would wait until March – and then give MPs the choice between backing her, or accepting a long extension to article 50.

According to the broadcaster, Robbins said the government had “got to make them believe that the week beginning end of March ... extension is possible, but if they don’t vote for the deal then the extension is a long one.”

long delay it is then i guess

'Overheard in a Brussels bar' not something you'd want as a reason to be fired iirc.

i was working for the eu in a brussels bar
that much is true

:D

nv otm that the eu will not *negotiate* a hard border

im utterly in the dark as to what and how serious the effects of a hard brexit would be on eg me in dublin.

im kinda thinking....fuck all...? but im a lazy fatwlist about stuff

fatwa list?

yes. step back.

I honestly don't think hard brexit is very likely. Most likely = May gets her deal through in extremis. Second most likely = last-minute extension and renegotiation. A long way third is hard brexit. No one wants hard brexit except for a few ERG nutcases. It could happen by accident but I think everyone - UK govt, parliament, EU - would pull out all stops to ensure it didn't.

they wont

its the option that nobody can be fully hit with the blame for because it happens automatically and anyone on the hook for it is either already maximally fucked or has proven to be teflon

I salute your optimism ZZ but it can't be repeated enough: hardbrex isn't an option to be chose, it's an increasingly inevitable result of fuckery

Y'know like nobody *wanted* WWI?

ok everyone time for some game theory

Jasper Carrott to thread

Irishes could find it trickier to get hold of some of their favourite UK foodstuffs for a while, including dairy, cider, sausages and crisps. Please prepare yourselves thoroughly for the impact of this.

No way in hell do the Irish buy British crisps.

They have them for sale alright but fuck knows why.