2020 Democratic presidential primary

Depending on how dedicated her staff is they might be able to shave off a few more days.

I am so glad I killfiled your constant torrent of sexist garbage

I'm glad I can contribute my moiety to your happiness, sleeve. Since it gives you so much pleasure, please killfile me on every device on which you view ilx. It's the least I can do.

Depending on how dedicated her staff is they might be able to shave off a few more days.

― ⅋ (crüt), Monday, February 11, 2019 8:01 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

You're getting a slip for that.

I really doubt biden would do well in this field. Not worth worrying about.

Like who knows, but the candidate will definitely be harris or bernie or warren

That sounds true

Remember that it's not just the candidate. It's who the candidate will bring into her or his staff and cabinet. Klobuchar would bring the (shaving) cream of the crop.

if a relative unknown like klobuchar is going to break through they need to have a unique degree of charisma. i don't think that is true of her.

biden has name recognition but i don't see a swell of support for him. also, he has run for president many times and never broken through.

Like who knows, but the candidate will definitely be harris or bernie or warren

― Trϵϵship, Monday, February 11, 2019 8:32 PM (thirty-eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

That sounds true

― Norm’s Superego (silby)

it's still early (only 19 months to go!!!) but this seems right

it feels a little scary to be making predictions this far out but yeah, i could easily see it going to any of those three. maybe harris has just a slight edge over the other two.

she's like "go on...."

lollll

Notable because 1) Texas, and 2) President vs. Former Congressman. https://t.co/FyUb25UxP9

— Anthony Wright (@aewright) February 12, 2019

Biden would have to answer for his action re: Anita Hill in a debate, he doesn't need a specific allegation against him to be torpedoed.

El Paso was 70-30 for Clinton in 2016, that difference in turnout has fuck all to do with Beto and everything to do with the wall and Trump.

My crystal ball says:

Right now, Harris seems like she'll be able to cover most of the bets that are on the table, but she'll need to fight skeptical headwinds from the more left-leaning and progressive wing of the party. If she can co-opt enough of Warren's and Bernie's agenda and do it believably, she looks like the one to beat. If she can't maneuver in the progressive space well enough to attract some of Warren's and Bernie's natural base, then it should be a real battle royale. I'd give her the slight edge right now.

Bernie, if he takes the plunge, has about a guaranteed 20% of the vote in the early primaries and should have money to spare. Warren may stumble from her not being a natural campaigner, or she may improve her delivery with more practice and eat Bernie's lunch and therefore eclipse Harris by 5% to 8%. My guess is she'll eat Hillary's leftovers and stay mired in second or third place in a three-way race, unless Bernie's in third and deliberately throws his support to Warren.

The usual kingmakers in the Democratic party may start out by backing someone like Beto, but he had better catch fire with the activist wing if he's going to outlast Harris or Warren. I don't think he can. Marginal candidates like Klochubar and Gabbard won't survive their first contact with real voters caucusing in Iowa or marking ballots in New Hampshire.

I'm probably wrong, but this is fun.

lol also beto literally is from el paso

We don't win swing states like New Hampshire or Ohio by only talking to progressives or only talking to workers.

You have to do both. pic.twitter.com/hRXRkB8h2j

— Sherrod Brown (@SherrodBrown) February 12, 2019

some of these guys really need better writers

Surprised at Brown going this route, I figured on him trying to steal some of Bernie's thunder.

Aimless that analysis sounds about right to me. If anything I think ppl might be underrating Bernie's built-in advantage, but I'm mostly basing this on my sense that hatred for him among actual voters (and not party insiders) is overstated; look at how much chatter there was when it was *rumored* he was joining the race a couple weekends ago.

But I agree that Harris has the edge and the fewest overt weaknesses (so far). As I've said before, I see no evidence average Dem primary voters give a fuck about her prosecutorial record. And I see no reason the Dem party establishment wouldn't line up behind her.

the trauma of 2016 is coming back

Holy shit -- Trump falsely accuses Ralph Northam of saying he supports "a newborn baby [coming] out into the world, and wrap the baby, make the baby comfortable, & then talk to the mother & talk to the father and then execute the baby. Execute the baby!"

Huge, angry boos. pic.twitter.com/VZaZXVoi7Y

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 12, 2019

the full thread is full of dozens of videos/quotes like this, just nonstop. ridiculous lies, but also things that, if believed, would incite people to violence. and as usual, the question is whether to spend time pointing out that there is an absolute lunatic running for president (only this time....*movie trailer bass noise* he is the president) or to focus on what a warren presidency or sander presidency or harris presidency would look like. clinton spent a fair amount of time doing both. it'll be interesting to see how the 2020 candidates approach the problem of our idiot baby president

btw i want to state for the record that i am against executing babies, but i'm especially against executing talking babies

Always a chance that baby was going to be Hitler 2.0 IMO.

my friend in Philly keeps pushing Swalwell (before his recent exposure with Whittaker or whoever the fuck it was). Is there any sort of sense this complete unknown is planning to run? He looks like a thumb and I predict he'd be the Martin O'Malley of the race if he did.

i'd say swalwell has as much of a chance as joe montana

and you never bet against joe montana

Talking babies will be the first to go in my book.

We don't win swing states like New Hampshire or Ohio by only talking to progressives or only talking to workers.

You have to do both. pic.twitter.com/hRXRkB8h2j

— Sherrod Brown (@SherrodBrown) February 12, 2019

some of these guys really need better writers

― bhad bundy (Simon H.), Tuesday, 12 February 2019 04:54 (nine hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

fuckin yikes

yeah it's really not gonna be hard to sort out who the c-listers are I don't think

I would think it requires an insane level of discipline to stay on-message when you're running against a fire hose constantly spewing garbage like Trump. I think Hillary actually didn't do too bad a job of sticking to her own message and not taking his bait, it was more that she did have a lot to sell and didn't seem particularly credible when she tried to sell progressivism. still, one of the things people most remember from the campaign was "basket of deplorables," which represented one of the few times she really did take the bait, and I think it backfired for her spectacularly.

obviously Warren has already demonstrate a pretty poor instinct for refusing to engage, which is why even though she's probably my preference at this point I definitely worry about her chances more than someone like Harris.

Those comments quotes upthread by trump about northam and abortion are fucking psychotic

Americans might like this article. There are some parallels. The traditional center-right parties in both the UK and the US are in the process of thoroughly trashing their reputations for prudence and responsibility, and the parties of the center-left are, rather than re-occupying the vacant (and largely illusory) center, rediscovering their radical roots. But the temptation still is to cede the territory on some very big questions, particularly immigration.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/02/labour-cannot-ride-brexit-wave-socialism-it-must-fight-nationalist-right

I particularly liked this:

"It is a typical feature of British political commentary to believe that, somehow, the identitarian commitments of white people in small towns are stronger and more authentic than those of the rootless cosmopolitans of the cities and the professional class. This has never been true. Londoners are just as committed to their cosmopolitanism as nationalist Leave voters are to their little-Englandism. This is a complicating factor for Labour strategists and one reason that holding this electoral coalition together is proving so difficult."

brown wants to right-size medicare to 55 y/os and it is so fucking stupendously stupid i fear i cannot ever take that douchelog serious xp

a pity about Brown cuz he has impressed me every time on the teevee with his cut-this-crap attitude

lol yesterday i fell across an yglesias anti- take on brown's plan. even yggy was like FUK NO.

.@YahooNews reports that when staffers left her office, Sen. Klobuchar would call their new bosses to get offers rescinded https://t.co/lkbtMIl9uK

— Sam Levine (@srl) February 12, 2019

lol she's like a cartoon villain at this point

this must all be very cathartic for her former staffers

or somebody's already got the knives out for her. these stories don't come from thin air

or both can be possible at the same time of course

xpost

meanwhile, some breaking 'extremely kamala harris' news

Kamala Harris claims to have smoked pot in college while listening to Tupac and Snoop.

Tupac's first album came out in 1991.
Snoop's first album came out in 1993.

Kamala Harris graduated college in 1986.

🤔🤔🤔 pic.twitter.com/8BU0h27I12

— all about the Benjamins baby 🎶 (@joshieecs) February 11, 2019

If there is even a grain of truth to the fact she treated staff like second class citizens, it’s a hard pass from me

It’s a weird situation when politicians are lying to say they DID smoke weed.

Arguably, not remembering it clearly might be evidence for the authenticity of her claim.

it's too hard to judge second class treatment from weirdo shaving incident, it sounds way weird as fuck, but it's a bit sui generis.

now, calling a staffer's new employer to get a hiring rescinded isn't "treating as second class," it's some grossly improper interference in someone's career, and if true as presented should end her career imo.

agree that trajectory and timing of this round of klobey reveals seems target-y, but anytime you shave you could put blood in the water. xp

Snoop's first album came out in 1993.

before which no one had ever heard of him

lol thank you

who knew kamala was so deep into west coast rap that she was bumpin snoop at least seven years before his first album, when he was in his mid-teens

Yeah i think i agree Hunt3r. I’m with workers and against bosses who think they are superior to workers and can mistreat them.

maybe she continued smoking weed after college and now she's busted?

What you don’t hear in the transcript is where she catches herself from saying lil pump

she probably thought mentioning Too Short would make her seem old