2020 Democratic presidential primary

I'd rather vote for the shaver tbh

Making staffers do weird and embarassing things is a bad look and suggests she doesn’t care about ordinary workers

Say no to hazing

one of the greatest presidents of the 20th century was an infamous hazer

Yeah—LBJ

His legacy was mixed though. Extraordinary progressive achievements + vietnam

when your vietnam is actually vietnam, it definitely leaves a mixed legacy.

I almost admire a man who stole his high school election.

scott walker? no wait, that was college, and he /failed/ to buy it.

If we're going for the LBJ 2020 constituency, I think you have to take Jim Webb out of the deep freeze. Is Sam Nunn still alive?

asked a friend who's a local political reporter of long standing, and he's never heard the Klobuchar shaving story.

I may have missed it but has Biden had a metoo incident yet? no way there isnt one

what makes you say that

Biden was born in 1942 and became a US Senator in 1973. Given the social mores of his generation and the limitless opportunities presented to powerful men who come into contact with a very large number of people seeking his favor, it seems highly likely that he engaged in extra-marital sexual liaisons, but that's very different from non-consensual sexual assault.

what a weird thing to speculate about

xp wow I am so glad I killfiled your constant torrent of sexist garbage, every once in a while I'm on another PC and can see your awful posts and I am so glad they are not usually in my life

I was commenting on anvil's post. I can't see any reason for concluding "no way there isn't" an episode of coercive sex in Biden's past.

He's been accused of being a bit handsy in photo-ops (not George H.W. Bush level groping, just touching more than is strictly necessary) and giving the occasional unsolicited shoulder rub.

i'm convinced that President Klobuchar's bipartisan ways might delay the worst effects of climate change by up to eight days

Depending on how dedicated her staff is they might be able to shave off a few more days.

I am so glad I killfiled your constant torrent of sexist garbage

I'm glad I can contribute my moiety to your happiness, sleeve. Since it gives you so much pleasure, please killfile me on every device on which you view ilx. It's the least I can do.

Depending on how dedicated her staff is they might be able to shave off a few more days.

― ⅋ (crüt), Monday, February 11, 2019 8:01 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

You're getting a slip for that.

I really doubt biden would do well in this field. Not worth worrying about.

Like who knows, but the candidate will definitely be harris or bernie or warren

That sounds true

Remember that it's not just the candidate. It's who the candidate will bring into her or his staff and cabinet. Klobuchar would bring the (shaving) cream of the crop.

if a relative unknown like klobuchar is going to break through they need to have a unique degree of charisma. i don't think that is true of her.

biden has name recognition but i don't see a swell of support for him. also, he has run for president many times and never broken through.

Like who knows, but the candidate will definitely be harris or bernie or warren

― Trϵϵship, Monday, February 11, 2019 8:32 PM (thirty-eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

That sounds true

― Norm’s Superego (silby)

it's still early (only 19 months to go!!!) but this seems right

it feels a little scary to be making predictions this far out but yeah, i could easily see it going to any of those three. maybe harris has just a slight edge over the other two.

she's like "go on...."

lollll

Notable because 1) Texas, and 2) President vs. Former Congressman. https://t.co/FyUb25UxP9

— Anthony Wright (@aewright) February 12, 2019

Biden would have to answer for his action re: Anita Hill in a debate, he doesn't need a specific allegation against him to be torpedoed.

El Paso was 70-30 for Clinton in 2016, that difference in turnout has fuck all to do with Beto and everything to do with the wall and Trump.

My crystal ball says:

Right now, Harris seems like she'll be able to cover most of the bets that are on the table, but she'll need to fight skeptical headwinds from the more left-leaning and progressive wing of the party. If she can co-opt enough of Warren's and Bernie's agenda and do it believably, she looks like the one to beat. If she can't maneuver in the progressive space well enough to attract some of Warren's and Bernie's natural base, then it should be a real battle royale. I'd give her the slight edge right now.

Bernie, if he takes the plunge, has about a guaranteed 20% of the vote in the early primaries and should have money to spare. Warren may stumble from her not being a natural campaigner, or she may improve her delivery with more practice and eat Bernie's lunch and therefore eclipse Harris by 5% to 8%. My guess is she'll eat Hillary's leftovers and stay mired in second or third place in a three-way race, unless Bernie's in third and deliberately throws his support to Warren.

The usual kingmakers in the Democratic party may start out by backing someone like Beto, but he had better catch fire with the activist wing if he's going to outlast Harris or Warren. I don't think he can. Marginal candidates like Klochubar and Gabbard won't survive their first contact with real voters caucusing in Iowa or marking ballots in New Hampshire.

I'm probably wrong, but this is fun.

lol also beto literally is from el paso

We don't win swing states like New Hampshire or Ohio by only talking to progressives or only talking to workers.

You have to do both. pic.twitter.com/hRXRkB8h2j

— Sherrod Brown (@SherrodBrown) February 12, 2019

some of these guys really need better writers

Surprised at Brown going this route, I figured on him trying to steal some of Bernie's thunder.

Aimless that analysis sounds about right to me. If anything I think ppl might be underrating Bernie's built-in advantage, but I'm mostly basing this on my sense that hatred for him among actual voters (and not party insiders) is overstated; look at how much chatter there was when it was *rumored* he was joining the race a couple weekends ago.

But I agree that Harris has the edge and the fewest overt weaknesses (so far). As I've said before, I see no evidence average Dem primary voters give a fuck about her prosecutorial record. And I see no reason the Dem party establishment wouldn't line up behind her.

the trauma of 2016 is coming back

Holy shit -- Trump falsely accuses Ralph Northam of saying he supports "a newborn baby [coming] out into the world, and wrap the baby, make the baby comfortable, & then talk to the mother & talk to the father and then execute the baby. Execute the baby!"

Huge, angry boos. pic.twitter.com/VZaZXVoi7Y

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 12, 2019

the full thread is full of dozens of videos/quotes like this, just nonstop. ridiculous lies, but also things that, if believed, would incite people to violence. and as usual, the question is whether to spend time pointing out that there is an absolute lunatic running for president (only this time....*movie trailer bass noise* he is the president) or to focus on what a warren presidency or sander presidency or harris presidency would look like. clinton spent a fair amount of time doing both. it'll be interesting to see how the 2020 candidates approach the problem of our idiot baby president

btw i want to state for the record that i am against executing babies, but i'm especially against executing talking babies

Always a chance that baby was going to be Hitler 2.0 IMO.

my friend in Philly keeps pushing Swalwell (before his recent exposure with Whittaker or whoever the fuck it was). Is there any sort of sense this complete unknown is planning to run? He looks like a thumb and I predict he'd be the Martin O'Malley of the race if he did.

i'd say swalwell has as much of a chance as joe montana

and you never bet against joe montana

Talking babies will be the first to go in my book.

We don't win swing states like New Hampshire or Ohio by only talking to progressives or only talking to workers.

You have to do both. pic.twitter.com/hRXRkB8h2j

— Sherrod Brown (@SherrodBrown) February 12, 2019

some of these guys really need better writers

― bhad bundy (Simon H.), Tuesday, 12 February 2019 04:54 (nine hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

fuckin yikes

yeah it's really not gonna be hard to sort out who the c-listers are I don't think

I would think it requires an insane level of discipline to stay on-message when you're running against a fire hose constantly spewing garbage like Trump. I think Hillary actually didn't do too bad a job of sticking to her own message and not taking his bait, it was more that she did have a lot to sell and didn't seem particularly credible when she tried to sell progressivism. still, one of the things people most remember from the campaign was "basket of deplorables," which represented one of the few times she really did take the bait, and I think it backfired for her spectacularly.

obviously Warren has already demonstrate a pretty poor instinct for refusing to engage, which is why even though she's probably my preference at this point I definitely worry about her chances more than someone like Harris.

Those comments quotes upthread by trump about northam and abortion are fucking psychotic

Americans might like this article. There are some parallels. The traditional center-right parties in both the UK and the US are in the process of thoroughly trashing their reputations for prudence and responsibility, and the parties of the center-left are, rather than re-occupying the vacant (and largely illusory) center, rediscovering their radical roots. But the temptation still is to cede the territory on some very big questions, particularly immigration.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/02/labour-cannot-ride-brexit-wave-socialism-it-must-fight-nationalist-right

I particularly liked this:

"It is a typical feature of British political commentary to believe that, somehow, the identitarian commitments of white people in small towns are stronger and more authentic than those of the rootless cosmopolitans of the cities and the professional class. This has never been true. Londoners are just as committed to their cosmopolitanism as nationalist Leave voters are to their little-Englandism. This is a complicating factor for Labour strategists and one reason that holding this electoral coalition together is proving so difficult."