"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

although the headlines about 20% of members leaving is only effectively talking about a few thousand people, this brexit clusterfuck is probably going to finish them off in Scotland.

A very bad No Deal Brexit that the Tories own completely will benefit Labour regardless of what Corbyn does because it'll be a modern Black Wednesday moment for them. If Labour can't win a GE under those circumstances then yes I think it's reasonable to conclude that Corbyn is toxic to enough of the electorate that they wouldn't win with him under any circumstances.

The problem for Labour is that if there is a very bad Brexit then it will also be their fault for not having done more to prevent it, for example voting some form of deal through or maybe just not having voted to trigger A50 in the first place. And the electorate will be made fully aware of that. I wouldn't go so far as to say they would lose an election as a result but I don't think many people will take the view that widespread job losses and spiralling food costs are a price worth paying for a Corbyn government.

If we do end up in the worst of all likely scenarios then the pieces will be shaken up so drastically that talk about keeping Labour's fragile coalition of voters together will be stupidly outdated in any case. But if that happens it would have been sensible to have positioned themselves on the right side of the argument early on, and you can't really say they've done that.

Yes yes we all know they oppose No Deal really but if they also end up voting against every alternative then they end up supporting No Deal by proxy. It's why they'll probably end up voting with the Tories in the end and that will fuel its own treachery narrative, not least in Scotland (and they aren't winning a majority without seats in Scotland).

Love how we are talking about the Labour vote as if nothing will happen to the Tory vote.

Did you read my first paragraph?

Ogmor otm, hard to predict the GE, not least because we don't know the impact of whatever Brexit we end up with on the economy, or whether the government will collapse before 2022.

no one willing to put their neck on the line and say corbo will be next PM ?

LOG OFF COWARDS

Matt I did, that comment was more general to what I am looking at.

At the very least in the event of No Deal you would expect most Midlands marginals to switch from blue to red but in general I agree that we're in uncharted territory so who the fuck knows.

I do think it's too simplistic to suggest that Labour would necessarily benefit from the electorate's desire to punish the Tories - or benefit enough at least.

what happens to the tory vote will be v interesting.

in theory the tories via brexit should have done an awful lot to alienate core constituents - by which i mean businesses - leaving mainly home counties/retired voters (have i forgotten a group? shire tories aren’t that significant any more, but maybe include them?)

but the same media asymmetry which means the tories can do things, which if labour did them - say “fuck business”, see companies and head offices leaving the country, fail to provide any structure of guidance or preparation for brexit - wd provoke a monumental media attack campaign, may also allow tory voters to see this as a failure of the current government rather than the tories in themselves.

a strong dislike of corbyn combined with that may be enough to keep the tory vote up, with the best you can hope for being a suppressed turnout from those groups.

does anyone know where scotland is at w/r/t brexit? suspect a lot of ppl have sympathy w corbyn’s respect ref let’s bring country together tack. not least because it’s perceived SNP don’t listen to the results of referenda (eliding the fact that scotland voted overwhelmingly in)

the other main rift in scotland is yessers vs unionists and I suspect the toxicity of the tory party May push some unionists towards labour - though they are perceived to be soft on the qn and they have been hit by the anitsemitism issue in places like eastwood/east ren

any sort of EU exit is p bad for the case for independence too. expect to see second referendum rhetoric ramp up towards 29/03

fact statement by me about shire tories. vast swathes of geographical blue shd say they’re still meaningful.

on scotland this generally inconclusive article suggests:

Labour have moved backwards a bit more, partly because of what looks like a deteriorating situation in Scotland: they’ve gone backwards in our virtual election by fifteen MPs, and forward on their unexpectedly good 2017 showing by just six seats.

*daft statement rather than “fact statement”

I suppose the other big unknown is the extent to which the Salmond stuff will damage the SNP?

wouldn't disgruntled SNP be more likely to go CON than Labour? I think they would both happily work together on 2nd Ref or a future rejoin EU ref.

a big hmmmm to that article - not least because the article it further cites strikes me as highly dubious

I think the fact is we don’t know where the country is at with all this - that’s why angus robertson has launched his new polling company: to find out

As I said before, I hate them, but the Lib Dems have to start winning seats they lost to the Tories and start pushing them harder in marginals - but what's the chances of that happening? I don't know if Labour voters switching back to Lib Dem in seats that Labour are never going to win anyway could be a factor or not.

Thread is finally speaking the Forbidden Thoughts, should be fun when Comrade Alphabet wakes up

...my own position being that I still admire Corbyn but he's fucked it and will never be PM due to irretrievable mass opinion that is beyond all of our (and his) control

I mean I'm willing to see how this plays out right up until the Big Moment of Brexit but if he hasn't somehow pulled a UK-sized rabbit from his hat then thank u, next

Let's see what he's got. What has he got? Pressure's on. And remember, this isn't about Labour policy under Corbyn, which we on ILX all like and can get behind. It isn't even really about Brexit per se - I'm sure most of us would take some form of soft Brexit under Corbyn. It is about Winning Over The Nation. How the hell can he do it?

but what if he does it and be's a legend

I mean, maybe I shouldn't use a football forum as a bellwether, but when even the nice, articulate lefties have turned vociferously on Corbyn (with me as one of a diminishing handful of defenders) then really, what hope is there?

you can use it as a bellweather but bringing it back here is a bit meh tbh

I thought xyzzzz was comrade alphabet but he’s already been posting...is that me?!

I notice the government is back deporting black Britons again, thank God the media have been holding their feet to the fire on that one...

So, this is interesting: I’m sitting in a coffee shop near my house and a certain newsreader (hint: he KNOWS NOTHING) has just told us all that he thinks Brexit isn’t gonna happen, on the basis that TM is already looking at kicking the A50 can down the road for a year, and may well just keep kicking...

The way things are going Corbyn as Lab leader won't even be much of a factor at all. Very much misses the bigger picture.

Lol gyac yes these are confusing times. Too much imperialism damages the brain.

lol I did mean xyzzzz ofc but had somehow missed his post(s) in my imperialist fug

I wish I knew with more clarity what is likely to happen :(

Related to the map the other day:

Look folks, the world’s greatest petition has a map that shows where the signatories are from.

Well, knock me over with a Lambeg drum..... pic.twitter.com/09Ewgjw9Lv

— Lorraine (@ihearthestia) February 3, 2019

I don't think that whether Corbyn is leading Labour at the next election is going to be nearly as important as whether May is leading the Tories. She's still unsinkable for the next 10 1/2 months - though I could see her going quietly earlier if her deal passes in time.

Imago no one knows what is going to happen. One tip to you is to wake up every morning and try and get a brain cell or two working by saying to yourself: "The Iraq war was not, under any circumstances, ok".

You are only young and there's still time to pull yourself from the abyss.

If the deal passes without the dup its going to be a minority gov isn't it?

I don't think so. Tories and DUP would still bond and hold hands over their fear of a Lab gov imo. "Yes we disagreed about the deal, but it's important now to come together in the UK's interest etc etc"

Doesn't the DUP's interest ironically end at the Irish Sea?

imago, reading the politics threads on football forums is actually worse for your health than smoking.

If a backstop deal passes without the DUP that surely has to be the end of their support. Anything less you could see them fudging

a big hmmmm to that article - not least because the article it further cites strikes me as highly dubious

I think the fact is we don’t know where the country is at with all this - that’s why angus robertson has launched his new polling company: to find out

― ||||||||, Monday, 4 February 2019 09:09 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

agree. and my view wasn't an attack on corbyn so much as just saying a load of right wing people can't stand him. feature not bug! but not without its implications for what happens to the tory vote.

Tory vote holding up pretty damn well given their unbelievable incompetence.

I don't think no deal is terribly likely, if it's seconds from the final whistle May will ask for an extension and the EU will say yes. I think it's more likely the ERG blinks and some form of May's deal passes.

Btw, I'm all general comments because I can't pull and comment people's specific posts on this phone. Xp

was just reading Age Of Chance was on the blower to Corbyn, maybe trying to learn what a real opposition looks like :p

And immediately got hammered for that by pro-Israeli Twitter, RIP her mentions.

I hope all of ilx can agree that Jacob Reiss Mogg is a disingenuous cock farmer. Fuck that smarmy, arrgogant self-interested prick.

meanwhile, brandown lewis is tackling the big issues

Good morning. The Tory party chairman really, really wants you to know a female Labour candidate has accidentally liked a dickpic on Twitter. He is demanding Jeremy Corbyn comments and is calling for her to be sacked over it. It’s 2019 mate, not sure that is the best look... pic.twitter.com/dOiVMJ9AgC

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) February 4, 2019

I was going to say sarcastically she should claim she was hacked but she actually did 🤦🏻‍♀️

didn't Damien Green go through industrial amounts of scented wipes in his office? No biggie :p

lest we forget, two Tory MPs were given back the whip last month to assist the government after facing serious allegations of sexual misconduct

yeah but dick pics tho

A bizarre "overcoming the odds" vibe being pushed here. "Life after Windrush".

Bureaucratic heartlessness dressed up as redemption story...for Amber Rudd!?!

This, & pieces across several newspapers = Amber Rudd being lined up as next ("compassionate", "moderate") Tory leader. pic.twitter.com/JMpSjakdXF

— Yannis Gourtsoyannis (@YannisGourtso) February 3, 2019

fuck the FT for this rinse.

her three-seat constituency mandate demands she is made pm

Is her brother behind this shit/doing her PR?

i must have missed the part where the windrush scandal was officially declared over, i guess

luv2preside over an abhorrent human rights abuse and then make a bid4pm