"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

no one has time to check - and when you needles are being hidden in needlestacks its not always easy either, even if you do have time

funny smell coming from some of them needlestacks :p

It feels like we're deep into nihilism mode, owning the libs, owning the gammons, owning the centrists, owning whoever is there

I felt it myself, when the FBPE fools finally realized they were the owners of an empty bag and shut up. "Lol you cunts" I said to myself as a possible lifeboat was deflated (no matter how useless and unlikely that lifeboat was)

the Blairism comparison is a bit odd here because if that regime were handling brexit as the opposition party they'd double down on Remain/2nd Ref and UKIP would polling in double figures again.

I really don't think this is true, it's important to distinguish how they're behaving as an opposition-within-an-opposition to how they'd behave if they were leading the opposition. They're pretty much trained from birth to follow the polling and triangulate according to it, so they would probably have gone for full Accepting The Result while attempting to find ways of attacking the Tories from the right, or attacking them from a mangerialist/administration point of view.

If I had to stake money on it, I think they'd probably be advocating a version of Soft-Brexit-But-Racist while saying "omnishambles" a lot.

"Lol you cunts" I said to myself as a possible lifeboat was deflated (no matter how useless and unlikely that lifeboat was)

Probably the most succinct encapsulation of our current historical moment that I've ever read.

xxp

I know you are talking about the broader picture of UK political social media rather than Kawczynski doing Mogg style made up shitposting. But I'm starting to grow very weary of lots of lefty twitter, think things need to cool down a little bit, and I say this as a complete Tory despising, semi-tankie reactionary type whose totally guilty of all sorts of angry, kneejerk shite posting.

Or maybe I'm just talking shit and need a twitter break.

Matt DC OTM on what Blairites would be up to if they were leading the Labour Party right now.

but wouldn't that mean ... oh nevermind - too depressing I'm off for a walk.

Varadkar on RTE - "the fact that the British Government resiled from a legal agreement with 28 states illustrates the need for the backstop".

— Jonathan Mills (@Muinchille) February 3, 2019

could be convinced that they were following the steps agreed at conference. That appears to have fallen by the wayside, with a second referendum apparently off the table

these were never a chronological set of steps. "all options are on the table, which includes another referendum" was only ever a lip-service sop to the membership, in any case. the leadership office knew from far out that a second referendum wasn't viable

The only real way forward for Labour now, if they're going to avoid No Deal, is to work with the government to find a deal that will get through the Commons *and* that May will swallow. Both party leaders will make a lot of noise about one thing while quietly preparing to do the other...

this is true I think but it needs to be done in a way which minimises the political pain for labour. the difficulty is that may is so politically tin-eared that she could (and is likely to) do things which make it more difficult for the leadership to whip it through

three likeliest outcomes now are:

- no deal;
- 'soft' labour split where backbenchers throw their lot in with may to vote her deal through, committing political harakiri in the process;
- labour front bench finessing the politics in such a way that they can conscionably whip the may deal through without too much political damage.

all of those options are probably terminal for the may govt though

I still think that MPs will vote through whatever happens to be on the table at 11.59pm regardless of whether its the original WA or not.

Given the rate of business departures from the UK it will probably be too late for a lot of people's jobs in any case.

No deal advocates have no plan for no deal.

Never mind the more excitable stories, the following WILL happen in a no-deal Brexit

1/

— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) February 3, 2019

Wrong - No deal advocates have a plan. It’s to blame everything that goes wrong on the EU. Why mess with the classics.

That poll is laughable.

Isn't the fence-sitting from Labour ending simply because we are actually reaching crunch point? It has been useful as a strategy and its now about making sure the Tories own the consequences of Brexit in an election should we actually get to one later this year.

The problem is we all share the consequences of Brexit and there are plenty of worried people who under the circumstances aren't too sympathetic to transparent political game playing.

Also whichever way you jump off the fence you risk pissing plenty of people off, perhaps without any real electoral benefit.

Agreed that isn't enough to the migrants who are unsure of their future. For Labour it has been a very grim damage limiting exercise - one of a specific sort. Also one where Labour have had to try to not articulate too many details - party because they have not been the party to negotiate Brexit.

As I see it Labour had to keep much of that electorate who voted Leave onside - but they could perhaps afford to piss off Remainer/People's Vote crowd that live in metropolitan areas, who can go and vote Lib Dem now. I guess we will see whether that has worked or not later in the year.

or Green ;)

or that person who will be The People's Vote candidate who will run in the Islington North constituency in the next election. Will get more votes than The Greens.

Not sure what the Green Party's position on cloning is, but cloning Caroline Lucas is their only hope of making any headway in UK politics.

clone their bougie nonsense voters while they’re at it

program green deals and imperialist wars into their brains.

theres that many leavers looking to vote labour that flinging away remain/second ref is the
....idea?

i know ive asked this before but....where is this coming from? just not liking the flavour of labour/centrism of the majority of remain/second ref crowd?

The fact that a shitload of Labour MPs are from constituencies where Labour voters voted Leave - voters who, nonentheless, voted Labour at the GE, I would imagine.

but they could perhaps afford to piss off Remainer/People's Vote crowd that live in metropolitan areas, who can go and vote Lib Dem now

Not sure about that - there must be quite a few marginals that fall into that bracket, including places that Labour surprised people by picking up in 2017.

Also Scotland.

The only seats Labour has any hope of getting in Scotland based on last election are all snp, so won't help vs tories

The only seats Labour has any hope of getting in Scotland based on last election are all snp, so won't help vs tories

Oop

Picking up seats from anybody helps v the Tories in purely arithmetic terms

helps what? it's quite clear the very slight Labour renaissance will completely collapse if there is any kind of brexit let alone a hard one. it has already collapsed.

Picking up seats from anybody helps v the Tories in purely arithmetic terms

― Brex Avery (Noodle Vague), Sunday, February 3, 2019 3:52 PM (nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Doesn't change tories majority at all tho? Labour needs to take Tory seats in England to win a GE.

Labour aren't going to win a GE under Corbyn, ffs, get real.

no one has any reason to be confident predicting the next election. even though it looks impossible atm labour would suffer, possibly critically, in a GE if they pushed remain too. i've not heard anyone who is pouring scorn on labour suggest a more workable plan, it's just more kvetching

helps what? it's quite clear the very slight Labour renaissance will completely collapse if there is any kind of brexit let alone a hard one. it has already collapsed.

― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_),

Ive no real idea what to expect from the next election but I don't get this. If brexit itself is a vote loser for Labour whatever they do, then once it is done, doesn't that mean a vote loser is removed and the next election would be fought on non-brexit policies? I thought the idea was that a post-brexit GE is more winnable for Labour than a pre-brexit GE

the very slight Labour renaissance will completely collapse IN SCOTLAND

to be clearer.

ohhhh! misread, sorry!

you didn't, I just wasn't clear.

I don't know what Scottish Labour need to do to get their act together, but it is quite clear Richard Leonard isn't helping the cause. Their line of attack could be that the SNP's anti-austerity is cosmetic and their leaders are typically morally questionable sleazy politicians - fuck knows. Maybe even more gains for the Tories in the next GE.

although the headlines about 20% of members leaving is only effectively talking about a few thousand people, this brexit clusterfuck is probably going to finish them off in Scotland.

A very bad No Deal Brexit that the Tories own completely will benefit Labour regardless of what Corbyn does because it'll be a modern Black Wednesday moment for them. If Labour can't win a GE under those circumstances then yes I think it's reasonable to conclude that Corbyn is toxic to enough of the electorate that they wouldn't win with him under any circumstances.

The problem for Labour is that if there is a very bad Brexit then it will also be their fault for not having done more to prevent it, for example voting some form of deal through or maybe just not having voted to trigger A50 in the first place. And the electorate will be made fully aware of that. I wouldn't go so far as to say they would lose an election as a result but I don't think many people will take the view that widespread job losses and spiralling food costs are a price worth paying for a Corbyn government.

If we do end up in the worst of all likely scenarios then the pieces will be shaken up so drastically that talk about keeping Labour's fragile coalition of voters together will be stupidly outdated in any case. But if that happens it would have been sensible to have positioned themselves on the right side of the argument early on, and you can't really say they've done that.

Yes yes we all know they oppose No Deal really but if they also end up voting against every alternative then they end up supporting No Deal by proxy. It's why they'll probably end up voting with the Tories in the end and that will fuel its own treachery narrative, not least in Scotland (and they aren't winning a majority without seats in Scotland).

Love how we are talking about the Labour vote as if nothing will happen to the Tory vote.

Did you read my first paragraph?

Ogmor otm, hard to predict the GE, not least because we don't know the impact of whatever Brexit we end up with on the economy, or whether the government will collapse before 2022.

no one willing to put their neck on the line and say corbo will be next PM ?

LOG OFF COWARDS

Matt I did, that comment was more general to what I am looking at.

At the very least in the event of No Deal you would expect most Midlands marginals to switch from blue to red but in general I agree that we're in uncharted territory so who the fuck knows.

I do think it's too simplistic to suggest that Labour would necessarily benefit from the electorate's desire to punish the Tories - or benefit enough at least.

what happens to the tory vote will be v interesting.

in theory the tories via brexit should have done an awful lot to alienate core constituents - by which i mean businesses - leaving mainly home counties/retired voters (have i forgotten a group? shire tories aren’t that significant any more, but maybe include them?)

but the same media asymmetry which means the tories can do things, which if labour did them - say “fuck business”, see companies and head offices leaving the country, fail to provide any structure of guidance or preparation for brexit - wd provoke a monumental media attack campaign, may also allow tory voters to see this as a failure of the current government rather than the tories in themselves.

a strong dislike of corbyn combined with that may be enough to keep the tory vote up, with the best you can hope for being a suppressed turnout from those groups.

does anyone know where scotland is at w/r/t brexit? suspect a lot of ppl have sympathy w corbyn’s respect ref let’s bring country together tack. not least because it’s perceived SNP don’t listen to the results of referenda (eliding the fact that scotland voted overwhelmingly in)

the other main rift in scotland is yessers vs unionists and I suspect the toxicity of the tory party May push some unionists towards labour - though they are perceived to be soft on the qn and they have been hit by the anitsemitism issue in places like eastwood/east ren