"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

Sorry if I sounded too certain there...just going from day-to-day on this.

Is she going to stick around to negotiate the final agreement?

It’s all academic, I’m australian in a year and Lithuanian if my ancestors had kept better documentation of being pogrommed. (Or if whoever was working the docks in Hull for the immigration service in the 1850s was operating a Hostile environment record keeping policy)

There was a containment hostel for East European immigrants passing through on their way to the US around that time so maybe quite hostile

Presumably Britain can still negotiate a deal of sorts even after No Deal? We'll be so desperate we'll take anything.

Surely if no deal happens their first offer is going to be “join the EU, we’ll let you put the queen on your Euros”

would that still collapse the government? DUP would withdraw support no?

― ||||||||, Tuesday, 29 January 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah so: deal goes through without DUP support --> DUP withdraws from coalition --> GE --> Labour wins, and owns this shit in a transition period

Why do you think it won't just be No Deal? Everything seems to point that way at the moment

People think there will be a deal just because they don't like thinking about sweet merciful death.

It could still be that but I sincerely feel the reality of food shortages will force MPs to reluctantly pass the deal. It will probably be done in a panic - and the clock will run close too.

I wouldn't discount a GE but its difficult to see that happening. xp

Just when you think it’s not possible to feel any more contempt for this shower... https://t.co/XevvRzBMAN

— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) January 29, 2019

Lord of the Cunts.

The triumphalist right wing press covers on what a great day the Maybot has had is like fucking Dacre has been possessed by Lord Haw-Haw and taken over the Sunday Sport or something.

^^ was gonna say, 'twas ever thus. What a spectacle.

That’s not even Dacre though, it’s the new “moderate” Grieg. Suspect it’ll age well as “Crush the Saboteurs”.

Would put money on senior cabinet minister being Gove.

"May still acts as if Brexit is something that must be settled to the satisfaction of the Conservative party first, and only then shared with the rest of Europe. The British public is at the very back of the queue. Such obtuseness infuriates continental leaders more than the intent to quit their club."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/29/may-brexit-brady-amendment

aye that canny Geordie lad is the new Dacre. I look forward to the headlines next week when she is doing unspeakably humiliating things for a packet of quavers.

So a deal is struck; UK leaves the EU; May, restored to her position as the most popular post-war PM ever, resigns; GE called; Tory landslide; bish bash bosh, luvvly jubbly.

Announcement on the train I'm on: No cold water, no hot water and no running water.

We have 58 days left to live. How are you all spending it?

Schadenfreude doesn't taste as good when you're no longer on the outside looking in.

I do a lot of angry politics posting on substandard trains so I empathise.

I think this take is otm (except the gov ministers resigning, because lol)

I think everyone getting a little carried away:

- May asks EU for backstop change
- EU says no
-May comes back Feb 13th + says "I tried - it's my deal or no deal/no brexit"
- Alongside another vote on deal we get free vote on Cooper-style amendment or 30 ministers resign.

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) January 29, 2019

We have 58 days left to live. How are you all spending it?

Listening to "We are negotiating in good faith and the intransigent, arrogant EU trying punish us" and endless variations thereof every minute of every one of those 58 days.

My pro-brexit cousin says the EU will agree some tweaks to the backstop and that it then comes back and passes parliament.

I've always thought that's what would happen tbh.

the eu have literally no incentive to renegotiate and the tories have had two years to sort this shit out - the level of delusion the government and brexiters are labouring under is staggering

Do the EU want No Deal?

No but how can the backstop be tweaked?

I don't know, the idea that there is no literally incentive for the EU to renegotiate is wrong though.

... literally no incentive, that is.

The EU can’t be forced to break a treaty for a member! It’s a rules-bound organisation and the precedent is a really bad one to set.

No but how can the backstop be tweaked?

― xyzzzz__, Wednesday,

I've no idea! Its not clear to me what these tweaks are supposed to be. I'd originally thought any tweaks would be cosmetic with the idea that Labour would then vote for it (but if cosmetic then Tory right and DUP don't go for it) - Brexit cousin reckons whatever these tweaks are will one enough to placate ERG/DUP

what are these tweaks you ask? no idea

At what point would any tweaks need a referendum in Ireland to get assent?

If it was considered to be a material change to the GFA, then who can say but it would be rejected by the electorate. Original referendum passed with like 96% approval from Irish electorate.

How likely is NI to punish the DUP in future general elections?

Pretty sure they will still have plenty of support.

surely, even the most extreme headbangers don't want their livelihood knacking up by a fudged backstop.

comma koma chameleon!

Which would imply that DUP politicians are the most extreme headbangers in Ulster dot dot dot.

or that their voters are either proportionately represented in the system, and that they are aware of and care about any issue at all rather than being rabid, fearful and bitter animals.

that said it works both ways

any tinkering with backstop to satiate backbench tories that in any way, however meaningless, leaves a difference btwn NI and Britain will not wash with these frothers

Fucking tweaks. That sub-Digby Jones arseache on Newsnight was trying that too. “If only they take out that tiny line tying us to Europe it will pass”. Yeah, that tiny line which is the point of the thing. “If only my parachute didn’t have a harness I’d happily wear it!”

It’s very hard to see the EU budging on the backstop; even if they did for the period of the WA, Ireland would surely (surely?) veto for the full deal so it’d be pointless.

I suspect the next steps are for May to come back having absolutely and visibly exhausted the “tweaks” and say “I’ve talked to Jez and the only other option that can command the house is permanent Customs Union. I don’t like it but the house also doesn’t want No Deal and we can’t revoke because we must Respect The Will so what else is there? Vote, dicks”.

That leads to a multi-amendment vote on the 14th where she calls the ERG bluff: which do they want less — a backstop with risk of customs union or a guaranteed permanent one?

Which underlines the risk for Corbyn entering talks: Labour CU-contingent support can then merely become a convenient replacement for No Deal in the game of brinksmanship that seems to be May’s only way of operating right now.

And of course whichever of those options they take the DUP then bring down the government, so it doesn’t hurt in the GE to follow that she’ll have made Labour complicit in something she mostly owned until then.

wheeeeee

German foreign minister Heiko Maas on prospect of renegotiating Theresa May's #Brexit deal: 'The withdrawal agreement is the best and only solution for an orderly withdrawal.

'Germany and the entire Union are firmly on Ireland's side.'

— Joe Barnes (@Barnes_Joe) January 30, 2019

But cars

It's almost as if the Germans have noticed that rabid nationalism and a ridiculously inflated sense of the UK's standing in the world haven't stopped the average UK citizen from buying almost everything they own from overseas producers.

An Irish friend has just suggested we connect the dots between the Brady amendment passing and the news that cocaine usage in the UK is significantly higher than the rest of Europe...

I posted this a few weeks ago, but it seems a convincing model of the difference between the image of the EU projected inside the UK and what the actual EU has been doing (IE gyac OTM, it is 100% about precedent above the attendant pain and damage).

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/01/search-lost-brexit-how-uk-repeatedly-weakened-its-own-negotiating-position

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-47041270

Energy Minister Paul Wheelhouse said the announcement, "highlights the significant potential for oil and gas which still exists beneath Scotland's waters".

... you said it, mate.

fun fact: it is essential that absolutely none of that oil or gas is extracted, stfu paul wheelhouse

DUP could in theory be ousted by UUP in some seats but in general the seats are super safe union majorities with the exception of Belfast South & North. But while the UUP are a more moderate party, they also oppose the backstop for the same reasons as the DUP.

This is vaguely interesting but probably means little in reality: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0130/1026375-congressman-brendan-boyle/

A resolution has been introduced in the US Congress opposing the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland.

Irish-American Congressman Brendan Boyle is behind the move.

He said that now was the time for the US Congress to make it clear that it stands in strong opposition to a hard border.

After introducing the resolution in the House of Representatives, Congressman Boyle said: "One of the great foreign policy achievements of the 20th century was the Good Friday Agreement.

"It eliminated the hard border that then existed between Northern Ireland and the rest of Ireland. Now Brexit threatens this."

perhaps the threat of a future US trade embargo and our supply of chlorinated chicken will help focus ppl.

May was going for the jugular on Corbyn at PMQs there. Novel way to kick off your cross-party talks, that