"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

when is the deadline for announcing no deal as official policy

My God, the unnamed senior minister quote:

“If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory.”

it's not so much about voting the tories out tbf, it's about never voting them back in again

But, according to Fiona Bruce and the BBC (aka the propaganda wing of Conservative Central Office), they're comfortably ahead in the polls.

dozens of sitting Tory MPs are facing ultra tight marginal races.

I fucking hate the cunts but we really need a Lib Dem revival to unseat a few of these.

Anyway, it's all cloud cuckoo stuff, they're not going anywhere near a GE any time soon.

I was more intrigued by the Scotland stuff because afaict Labour still polls really badly up there? I do remember Corbyn getting a good reception in 2017 though despite SLab’s awful performance.

I don't think it's changed that much since the last election. The Tories are hoovering up the Billy Boy vote and SLab are making no inroads into the SNP vote.

not sure how you'd make significant inroads into supporters of the independence party without adding independence to your plank

... scratch that, current predictions have Labour winning 2 seats, lol.

And even though I'm a Labour Party member, I still will probably ed up voting SNP because Labour never do anything in NE Fife, so in order to keep the tories/LDs out...

plank platform (though I know you call them manifestos, which is delightful)

They managed it for about 80 years up until 2015.

After some rapid googling, I note polling suggesting only half of SNP voters could only vote for a party that wants Scotland to be independent. The rest would prefer to vote for a party that wants Scotland to be independent, but it's not a deal breaker, or else they don't care about the party's stance on Scottish independence.

I was more intrigued by the Scotland stuff because afaict Labour still polls really badly up there? I do remember Corbyn getting a good reception in 2017 though despite SLab’s awful performance.

― gyac, Wednesday, January 23, 2019 12:40 AM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I’ve been saying....

much like the UK polls, the scottish polling isn’t telling the full story. there are a number of seats which were supermajorities in 15 that are tight marginals in 19. SLAB are quite unreconstructed, having resisted the ground up change of UKLAB, but the corbyn effect /will/ peel off soft independence voters who threw their hat in on that in the hope of social democracy/democratic soc.

they should attract some unionist voters too, as the CONS are tainted by association w the UK branch

it is a very valid crit of corbyn tho that he doesn’t really get scotland and the 17 manifesto never really had an offer

The bad news is that a mere one-point swing from the Conservatives to Labour would see them lose 15 seats: Southampton Itchen, Pudsey, Hastings and Rye, Chipping Barnet, Thurrock, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Calder Valley, Norwich North, Broxtowe, Stoke-on-Trent South, Telford, Bolton West, Aberconwy, Northampton North and Hendon. In addition, a further 21 seats would fall to Labour if they can replicate their 2017 swing, which was in of itself only their fifth-best since 1945.

A 5.4 per cent swing now would mean a Labour majority of one, even assuming no gains in Scotland. The reality is that the SNP position is so fragile that even in the event that Labour were to gain no votes directly from the Scottish nationalists, a 5.4 per cent swing from Tory to Labour north of the border would add an extra 14 seats to the Labour tally – meaning that a 5.4 per cent swing would likely secure a Labour majority of 28.

To put the ease of Labour’s challenge into perspective: if they replicated any of the swings from Tory to Labour while they have been in opposition since 1964, they will be in office, albeit in some kind of ragbag coalition.

‘the bad news’

Meanwhile Leave will 100% win any second referendum if they can't find better people to run the Remain campaign than this lot:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/the-campaign-for-a-peoples-vote-on-brexit-has-descended

Funny how sensible bipartisanship is so much easier on paper than in practice.

“Hardliners alarmed by delay reconsider May’s deal”

I’d trust these guys as far as I could throw them

Ty for context on Scotland, Tom & |||||||| (how do you even say that username?!)

People are so negative about labour and I would tend to be that way inclined too; I still remember the 2017 shock when the exit poll came out!

I don’t want to overplay how successful labour may be at the next GE. scottish politics is v different to the UK, with the added complicating nationalist/unionist fissure. there is also still a LOT of resentment at continuity_SLAB who treated a lot of scotland as their own little personal fiefdom, characterised by endemic backscratching and complacency.

... just cautioning - given the low swing needed to take a bloc of SNP seats - it’s not unfeasible that they do better in scotland they than predicted.

anecdotally - I voted for independence, principally because I thought WM was unsalvageable and democratic socialism impossible w the labour party as it was constructed then*. the election of corbyn to the labour leadership changed that calculation/perception. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the left that threw their hat in with the SNP post-14 feel the same.

*I mean - it still is to an extent (corbyn is a bug not a feature) though it is changing

It’s been a while, so here’s some galaxy brain thinking from CH comments:

1) It’s Theresa May that loves the IRA!

Corbyn won that. T May used terrorism yet again. I still do not see how she can think this is sane behaviour. Threats are used by her of terrorism that resulted from a minority that did not want overseas rule. This has been played out to cause the permanent overseas rule of the whole UK by a third power.

Corbyn talked to terrorists and provided legitimacy, but T May has given them the ultimate reward of political change based on their non-democratic means.

The 1998 agreement explicitly recognised that democratic change was the only way forward. That principle has now been defeated.

2) TM is getting inspiration from the home of conservatism!

"Jeremy Corbyn "was willing to sit down with Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRA... "

This looks very familiar. Didn't someone commenting here make this very same point almost word for word?

Do you think Theresa May and her staff are reading ConHome to look for material?

3) “there are too many states nowadays, please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot!”

All I've received from Brandon Lewis and his predecessor are messages detailing the Party’s ‘achievements’ and endless requests to ‘Donate’.

In my opinion, there are too many Ministers. How did we ever manage in the past without Equality, Loneliness, Womems, etc. Ministers? They are just ‘make jobs’, which are costing the taxpayer dear. Time for a cull.

4) A charming metaphor:

Maybe the loss of 100 or so seats and a few years in opposition might teach the idiots who have presided over the party the last few years a thing or two. That's certainly a sentiment I hear from "Conservative abstainers", who are a massive lump of the electorate, and a very difficult one to track at present.

5) What young voter problem?

The campaign team will need to dredge up the first era of Corbyn this time. Yesterday it was 40 years exactly since rubbish was piling up in my then 90 year old Nan's council tower block so that the stench was in her flat. She was climbing up six flights of steps every day to get home because the lift maintenance men were on strike.

The lifts were genuinely out of order because of urine. The Clash's "Up in Heaven (Not Only Here)" references this : perhaps ask Mick Jones's cousin Grant Shapps. Anyhow, luckily she lasted for a few more years and we were able to bury her unlike those whose relatives sadly passed away at the time.

So there is plenty to work with here. I suggest a British campaign team who understand because they were actually there an the slogan "Labour Was Never Working". A lot of graphic pictures obviously. It is an outrage that this wasn't done in 2017 and the fact that it wasn't done is 90% of the reason for the current mess.

5) (I think? Can’t scroll up) Huh?

Cameron and his chums decided that the Conservative Party did not require members (who were anyway Turnip Taliban and/or bigoted homophobic xenophobes) but rather only donors. The Conservative Party has now lost most of its crony capitalist EU supporting cheap immigrant employing donors too. Hence the existential crisis.

Advance to 1797? I hope not but someone had better do something quick.

6) Good Lord

It needs an election and a referendum on the same day, to avoid the two issues getting muddled by party politics.

7) I hope this is the feeling with the wider membership!

The British people are an awkward bunch. When a party looks tired and incompetent the British people always decide to give the other lot a go. Well we can peddle fear about Corbyn all we like, but the fact of the matter is that our Conservative government has failed us all. It is a shambles, led by a woman who is all over the place, and completely out her depth. It's a nightmare. It has to end.
The only gleam of hope I see at present was listening to Michael Gove summing up the recent debate. It's nothing to do with the issue really. It was his passion, and his execution of the speech. This is perhaps a man who might just have the opportunity soon to take over, and get a grip. Is there any chance of it, or must we be trapped in this continuing dance macabre?

Womems

Bigoted homophobic xenophobes, as opposed to the other sort.

Love to see Tories whinge.

nationalise james ball

At a time when we really need to calm down businesses to protect jobs and wages from fleeing, Tories are telling them to sit down and shut up, and Labourites are making ‘hilarious’ ‘jokes’ about randomly nationalising them.

What. A. Fucking. Shower.

— James Ball (@jamesrbuk) January 23, 2019

The campaign team will need to dredge up the first era of Corbyn this time. Yesterday it was 40 years exactly since rubbish was piling up in my then 90 year old Nan's council tower block so that the stench was in her flat.

If my arithmetic is correct this contributor's Nan was born the same year as Adolf Hitler.

I bet they share a few other similarities.

Xp HE IS SO AWFUL JFC

Jeremy Corbyn nationalising Freddos wouldn't be so funny if it didn't communicate with a winking smile between folks spreading the joke that nationalising things is good. It's a sincere position we're joking about, taken to ridiculous heights maybe, but it's still sincere. pic.twitter.com/qkbQJpHq86

— [Unidentified Caller] (@CaseyExplosion) March 29, 2018

Michael Gove ... is perhaps a man who might just have the opportunity soon to take over, and get a grip. Is there any chance of it

Suspect the mysterious disappearance of his anti-GFA pamphlet from its publisher's website might mean someone thinks so:

In 2000 Michael Gove wrote a pamphlet for the Centre for Policy Studies, "The Price of Peace", attacking the Belfast Peace Agreement. Since then, the pamphlet has mysteriously disappeared from the CPS website. Here is it: https://t.co/7M4wLGStnx (h/t @kronoc

— Brian Tutt (@tutt_brian) January 17, 2019

LOL @ the idea that Gove appeals to anyone who isn't a member of the Conservative Party.

buried lede

Has the Labour Party ever been quite such a broad church? And will its ever-widening breadth eventually lead to a split? https://t.co/pWThwEspcs

— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 23, 2019

blaaaaarf

Bolsonaro has many legitimate concerns tbfttl

Alex Salmond arrested.

Some good news at last.

On the ale again ?

— Peter Reid (@reid6peter) January 23, 2019

pretty much every woman i know who's ever interacted with salmond has said he's a total creep

wonder how many other women will come forward now he's been arrested

I haven’t been following the case, but I just saw it’s live under contempt of court proceedings.

In an announcement outside the Houses of Parliament, leading supporters of the People’s Vote campaign for a second referendum, the Tory Sarah Wollaston and the Labour MPs Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger, have announced that they will not be tabling an amendment to the Brexit motion being debated on Tuesday calling for a second referendum. They don’t want to call a vote until they think they have the numbers to win.

Not been following it closely but surely this isn't good for Sturgeon'a rep (recent inquiry and shadowy secret meetings with the old creep etc).

Umunna betraying the people by not calling for a vote immediately oh wait no that's Corbyn

there's no way she could have worked closely with him for decades and not known what he was up to xp

Wollaston: “We could have the numbers if we had the unequivocal support of Jeremy Corbyn.”

— Adam Payne (@adampayne26) January 24, 2019

This is so disingenuous (what a shock). As reported at the weekend, a good portion of the front bench oppose a 2nd referendum and would resign if whipped to vote for one. And that’s just the Labour numbers; they need enough Tories to vote for it as well to balance out the Labour MPs opposing it and afaict they’re well short of it.

basically it's a load of shite + they wouldn't have the numbers at all with Corbyn's support.

it's funny/depressing as fuck reading some of these #IstandwithAlex loons, lol one of them crying an establishment stitch-up like they did to Tommy.

can't believe the establishment would frame salmond by forcing him to be a notorious groper for 30 years, smdh

She’s already said she’d vote against the two-part Labour frontbench amendment ruling out no deal and ruling in a referendum on the deal that is negotiated, plus the usual thing where she votes for pov-killing austerity measures *because she is a Tory*

Yesterday I was approached to help Women for People’s Vote with some media stuff, and presented enough caveats that I don’t think they’ll let me help after all. LOL.

On the one hand the CEO of airbus says they’ll have to leave the UK if there’s no deal but on the other hand Standup4brixit174826 whose only experience of the aerospace industry is that they’ve been on a plane twice says it’s project fear so now I don’t know what to think

— James Felton (@JimMFelton) January 24, 2019

pmsl

I understand @ChukaUmunna and @sarahwollaston press conference was not sanctioned by the actual People's Vote campaign...

— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) January 24, 2019

lol we're all gonna die

welp

BREAKING: Former First Minister Alex Salmond is facing multiple charges of sexual assault and two of attempted rape. pic.twitter.com/lty5wh9hAq

— David Clegg (@davieclegg) January 24, 2019

The charge sheet is hefty, too