"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

the Tories have a real problem with the size of the pool of MPs available to become Ministers and PPSs, here's a thread- pretty much being more-or-less sentient, not being a swivel-eyed Brexiteer and not having served at a higher level will get you a job:

A short thread on what could prove to be a major headache for the PM.

The below @instituteforgov chart shows how few MPs there are left that Theresa May could appoint as ministers/PPSs.

MPs with blue or pink squares are those whose appointment might be problematic for the Govt. pic.twitter.com/u2TZtdF0Kt

— Alasdair de Costa (@addadc) January 21, 2019

years of inbreeding have caused congenital idiocy among an entire generation of Tory MPs, pretty much

corollary of cameron’s approach to maintaining a stable cabinet is that a lot of the conservative party are underpromoted and untested in positions of responsibility

It looks like the eyes-catching part of Grieve's amendment has been withdrawn, now it's just setting out days for debate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/jan/22/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-under-pressure-to-allow-ministers-free-vote-on-amendment-to-block-no-deal-politics-live?page=with:block-5c46f63ae4b058cfe6d94c73#block-5c46f63ae4b058cfe6d94c73

The former attorney general Dominic Grieve has put forward his motion to allow backbenchers to table different Brexit motions for debate six full days before the UK leaves the EU – 12 and 26 February and 5, 12, 19 and 26 March. You can read it on the order paper (pdf), on page 51.

That would give MPs time in the House of Commons to debate ideas such as a customs union, Labour’s own Brexit plan, a second referendum, no deal and the Norway model. Motions would be amendable and would have political force.

Grieve has removed the most controversial aspect of his amendment from one of the leaked drafts, which would have allowed a motion put forward by a minority of 300 MPs from at least five parties – including 10 Tory MPs – to be debated as the first item for MPs in the Commons the next day.

theory seen today that may is dangling prospect of parliament outflanking her in order to force ger own rump to yield to her deal or no brexit

i mean sure thats possible im just not confident that

i)she knows the odds and where the brink is

ii) the people shes performing this act for care

Six days does not seem like enough time to me.

Jo Swinson, the deputy Lib Dem leader, told the People’s Vote press conference this morning that Jeremy Corbyn had shown “a dreadful lack of leadership” over Brexit, because Labour was “riding both horses” on a second referendum. (See 9.26am.) She said:

Labour is at a point now where it has to choose. The Labour leadership has been riding both horses for far too long.

Labour can decide. Their votes will be pivotal. They can either make Brexit happen or Labour can stop Brexit. The time for decision is upon us.

As ever, great to see Lib Dem priorities as polls keep showing voters wanting a no-deal Brexit.

ffs

23% for second ref and over 30% for no deal. Pathetic.

UK, ICM poll

What should be the PM's next steps?

No Deal: 32%
Second Referendum: 27%
Extend Article 50: 23%
Renegotiate a 'Harder Brexit': 21%
Resign: 15%
Renegotiate a 'Softer Brexit': 15%
Call election: 12%
Original deal: 9%

Field work: 16/01/19 – 18/01/19
Sample size: 2,046

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) January 21, 2019

fffffffff

couple that w the rob ford report out today which shows the public are a lot less concerned about NDB than MPs (and that they fully understand that NDB doesnt mean staying in the EU)

#LDIABL

I don’t believe people do understand no deal, they’re all acting like Stephen Bush warned about, assuming the worst can never happen.

they understand it means leaving the EU, contrary to what some people were saying yesterday. I don’t understand what no deal means - no one has actually laid out viscerally, in plain terms, all of the consequences. they just mention food shortages and lorries queuing, and I think people just hand wave that away because it’s not concrete enough

The Brexit and Public Opinion 2019 report (pdf) from the UK in a Changing Europe project mentioned earlier (see 10.52am and 12.14am) also includes an essay from the leading psephologist Sir John Curtice looking at whether voters really want a second referendum. He says the answer depends enormously on how you frame the question. If you ask people if they favour the public being offered a “vote” on the deal, they are likely to say yes

*whistles ifly*

For starters 'No Deal' in these idiot polls should be listed 'Do nothing'.

As I recall (anecdotally) a lot of the Leave vote at the time was "ach sure it'll be bumpy but we'll get through it and it'll be better DUNKIRK" about the whole thing, and it feels like they're the same about No Deal now. In particular a goodish chunk of the older generation have been quite insulated from the gutting of the social contract and imagine there's still someone looking out for them; they're simply not able to comprehend what No Deal would entail.

Even here in Remainy Bubble-land I've heard a lot of people say that "nothing will change", even people who also joke about Brexit being stupid

(not that I have made any particularly useful preparations for things not being fine myself, just fretted mostly quietly to myself and been called a miseryguts/worrywort/paranoid loon every time I've mentioned it out loud. OK most of those were from my bf who knows very well that I am all of those things tbh)

xxp "do nothing" still sounds quite reassuringly status-quo-esque, no? I am a fan of "crash out" but Brexiteers complain about that being overdramatic, project fear, etc, so if someone can find a significantly toned down but still disruptive sounding version...

(the Germans seem to call it un-orderly Brexit, which also seems a bit ambiguous/euphemistic but I guess it fits and Germans do like having "everything in order")

Why didn't the poll have 'stop brexit' on it?

Yeah that strikes me as such a big omission that the rest of the poll is basically worthless.

23% for second ref and over 30% for no deal. Pathetic.

I don't think this reflects real levels of support either. If both a second poll *and* a Remain win became serious prospects, which they currently aren't, support for that option would rocket. Additionally some/lots of that vote is siphoned off in other polls by the option of 'No Brexit at all'.

Ultimately we're still in a situation where nearly half the country would, given the choice, still opt to Remain. It's not like there's a massive groundswell of people moving over to the Leave side.

I think we could do with less of treating “just get on with it! Bored now!” as a serious opinion worth considering.

I think quite a lot of ppl who voted remain think it's no longer viable

Honestly as someone who does follow this nonsense closely, things change so frequently that I don’t blame people for feeling defeatist about the whole thing. It’s exhausting.

I feel like "Remain" and "No Deal" could both win a second referendum - I can't really see who it is that wants anything else

No Deal is still a minority preference by some distance, somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 of the population want some kind of deal. Unless things change rapidly I don't see the point of worrying too much about them.

According to that poll over half of the country still want some kind of Brexit then if we include no deal as a brand of brexit. A 1/3 want no deal, that's not a minority. Nor is 2nd ref but you got to laugh that more want to go now.

One option not on the poll is revoking art50 or even cancelling Brexit.

Poll isn't really clear on that though, it's multi-choice (the percentages add up to 150% or something) so you can't really see exactly what percentage of people want the Brexit options, unless that's broken down somewhere else

Lol ok its got to add up and also it should include (as stet first said) the cancel brexit option.

Also one option for 'too many options'.

"Ultimately we're still in a situation where nearly half the country would, given the choice, still opt to Remain. It's not like there's a massive groundswell of people moving over to the Leave side"

This is true, but if the reality of public opinion is close to this guesstimate it's also a big problem for People's Vote fans. If the split is still that tight in either direction it makes any kind of ref 2 a charge of the light brigade scenario.

kinnock to the left of them, bannon to the right

they should make any new ref non-binding

Yeah the margin is still too tight for a 2nd ref not to be a massive risk. Kicking the can down the road feels like the only realistic or viable scenario right now.

you'll want to check if theres any beans left in the bottom of it first the way its going

"kinnock to the left of them, bannon to the right"

good work :D

here i am
stuck in the backstop with EU

no wait we have definitely done this

alfred, lord sotorantino

I used to think "what a shame Brexit has deflected attention from all the important things" but now I'm more line "at least Brexit is leaving these arseholes too busy to break much else, let's just let them keep kicking the can through the quagmire".

Just dropping in for obvs joke about Kinnock being left of anyone.

the pun chose me tbf, I couldn't really think about it

kinnock to the left of them, bannon to the right

― imago, Tuesday, January 22, 2019 5:06 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Ahhhyeah

I think quite a lot of ppl who voted remain think it's no longer viable

Uh-huh.

Remain is still non-viable for Labour to back but I think it becomes very viable once on a ballot or as a default in case of no agreement.

Chris Williamson, helpful as always, popped up earlier today to tell the world that he's pretty chill about a No Deal Brexit.

Fucking idiot already has the deathly pallor of some insect eating creepazoid, so I'm sure he's totally chill about no deal.

Any attempts by Remainer MPs to delay or obstruct #Brexit must be opposed. Today I have formally asked Polish Government to veto any motions by EU to allow extension of Article 50. We are leaving 11pm on March 29th as promised @StandUp4Brexit

— Daniel Kawczynski (@DKShrewsbury) January 22, 2019

Xp Sir you're describing the entire NuLab ethos

dyson's are shite anyway. buy miele

Buy Henry!

As a goodbye to Dyson from the UK here’s my tribute to his horrible hand-dryer. From ⁦@iconeye⁩ 164 pic.twitter.com/QeNw2NfZVG

— edwin heathcote (@edwinheathcote) January 22, 2019

When you need to hoover up some rubble I'm a pure Dewalt user myself, but apparently Dyson are shit at blowing piss of drunk ppls hands as well.

I'm not entirely convinced that the Polish government, with thousands of citizens over here, will be greatly swayed by the Member of Parliament for Shrewsbury.