"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

Why my own household bought a can of Lyle’s Golden Syrup just recently

now why would a polish minister fly a flag suggesting ireland should weaken on the border issue

darragh otm - there’s a political will to avoid no deal in the EU, certainly above and beyond any desire to be seen to “punish” the U.K. (if it ever was a desire, the effect political and popular of watching the U.K. crash around like a drunk for the past two and a bit years has more than achieved that) and Norway deal (or Norway-style if you like) is a legitimate way to do that and i’m sure would be acceptable to the EU. Just not the Tory party.

So I don't *think* that these two amendments are contradictory but I've completely lost track of what's going on. I'm assuming Dominic Grieve is going to chuck one on the pile as well.

is the grieve amendment limited to allowing parliament to control the standing orders for EU withdrawal related issues* only ?

*whatever those are.

must be some potential for shenanigans if not. albeit limited by the requirement for an item needing proposers from people in 5 parties

not that parliament has bandwidth for any shenanigans really.

Those repeating the idea that lots of people think no deal means no Brexit might like to look at the terrible evidence it appears to be based on (a Twitter poll where most people probably thought they were voting on on what they wanted to happen – why use the word 'vote'?)

We want to know, do you really know what a no deal Brexit means?

Tonight at 7pm on @SkyNews we're hosting a special #BrexitCrisis programme live from Leeds to discuss some of the key issues facing the country.

Vote below.

— Sky News (@SkyNews) January 20, 2019

This is stunning.

A senior executive at the NHS joins a healthcare startup and then, before she leaves government, writes an article for The Times under her NHS title in which she praises the startup, without disclosing that they've hired herhttps://t.co/SqqRCjXpQy

— kadhim (＾ｰ^)ノ (@kadhimshubber) January 22, 2019

Juliet Bauer, longtime News International employee, current NHS one writes puff piece in Times about her next employers GP app. You could make it up etc....

Giving her an NHS job at all was the first mistake.

Why my own household bought a can of Lyle’s Golden Syrup just recently

oh no, don't mention Tate & Lyle...

xp
a decade working for a scumbag who would gladly see the NHS liquidated on your CV is not the best look for an NHS vacancy.

these poor humble News International employees are just doing a job, they don't have the privilege of choosing their boss etc...

The apparent fact that May's Plan B is 'one more heave' to get the EU to change their minds on the backstop is pretty deranging, like there's a Roomba in charge of the country.

i am well behind on this thread and totally irrelevant to proceedings, but this analogy is pure genius

*googles Roomba*

it’s a robot vacuum cleaner that functions by repeatedly running headfirst into walls

the maybot hasn't acquired that level of sentience yet, it just reads scripts.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/15/roomba-robot-vacuum-poopocalypse-facebook-post

perhaps we can only hope somebody applies this modification

I hooked a neural network up to my Roomba. I wanted it to learn to navigate without bumping into things, so I set up a reward scheme to encourage speed and discourage hitting the bumper sensors.

It learnt to drive backwards, because there are no bumpers on the back. https://t.co/8PdR3p6ePZ

— Custard Smingleigh (@Smingleigh) November 8, 2018

It learnt to drive backwards, because there are no bumpers on the back.

if only it had… a backstop

It is in favour of freedom of movement though?

couldnt draw out the border on a map

"Creatures bred for speed grow really tall and generate high velocity by falling over" is basically Jacob Rees-Mogg and his plans for the UK?

(Also thanks, AA!)

is the grieve amendment limited to allowing parliament to control the standing orders for EU withdrawal related issues* only ?

It is, but it would create a precedent.

If there was a second referendum, May would resign, I reckons.

And Jacob Rees Mogg would literally explode with the confliction.

speaking of health appointments as we were earlier this morning (ahem), I see my former MP has been given a peerage to be "Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Health & Innovation", which seems slightly suspicious to me

went straight into politics after university, MP for 7 years, has been spending the 18 months since losing her seat working for lobbying firms and being "advisor" to a private "digital healthcare" company, no health/background before chairing the Science & Technology Select Committee, voted against gay marriage & assisted dying due to her Christian beliefs. perhaps ironically, ousted an actual GP as MP after some vicious leaflets went round about him from an evangelical Christian group, but tbf I've nothing that says there's any connection

nobody I've talked to locally seems to think she did much for the constituency but she's clearly impressed someone

the Tories have a real problem with the size of the pool of MPs available to become Ministers and PPSs, here's a thread- pretty much being more-or-less sentient, not being a swivel-eyed Brexiteer and not having served at a higher level will get you a job:

A short thread on what could prove to be a major headache for the PM.

The below @instituteforgov chart shows how few MPs there are left that Theresa May could appoint as ministers/PPSs.

MPs with blue or pink squares are those whose appointment might be problematic for the Govt. pic.twitter.com/u2TZtdF0Kt

— Alasdair de Costa (@addadc) January 21, 2019

years of inbreeding have caused congenital idiocy among an entire generation of Tory MPs, pretty much

corollary of cameron’s approach to maintaining a stable cabinet is that a lot of the conservative party are underpromoted and untested in positions of responsibility

It looks like the eyes-catching part of Grieve's amendment has been withdrawn, now it's just setting out days for debate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/jan/22/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-under-pressure-to-allow-ministers-free-vote-on-amendment-to-block-no-deal-politics-live?page=with:block-5c46f63ae4b058cfe6d94c73#block-5c46f63ae4b058cfe6d94c73

The former attorney general Dominic Grieve has put forward his motion to allow backbenchers to table different Brexit motions for debate six full days before the UK leaves the EU – 12 and 26 February and 5, 12, 19 and 26 March. You can read it on the order paper (pdf), on page 51.

That would give MPs time in the House of Commons to debate ideas such as a customs union, Labour’s own Brexit plan, a second referendum, no deal and the Norway model. Motions would be amendable and would have political force.

Grieve has removed the most controversial aspect of his amendment from one of the leaked drafts, which would have allowed a motion put forward by a minority of 300 MPs from at least five parties – including 10 Tory MPs – to be debated as the first item for MPs in the Commons the next day.

theory seen today that may is dangling prospect of parliament outflanking her in order to force ger own rump to yield to her deal or no brexit

i mean sure thats possible im just not confident that

i)she knows the odds and where the brink is

ii) the people shes performing this act for care

Six days does not seem like enough time to me.

Jo Swinson, the deputy Lib Dem leader, told the People’s Vote press conference this morning that Jeremy Corbyn had shown “a dreadful lack of leadership” over Brexit, because Labour was “riding both horses” on a second referendum. (See 9.26am.) She said:

Labour is at a point now where it has to choose. The Labour leadership has been riding both horses for far too long.

Labour can decide. Their votes will be pivotal. They can either make Brexit happen or Labour can stop Brexit. The time for decision is upon us.

As ever, great to see Lib Dem priorities as polls keep showing voters wanting a no-deal Brexit.

ffs

23% for second ref and over 30% for no deal. Pathetic.

UK, ICM poll

What should be the PM's next steps?

No Deal: 32%
Second Referendum: 27%
Extend Article 50: 23%
Renegotiate a 'Harder Brexit': 21%
Resign: 15%
Renegotiate a 'Softer Brexit': 15%
Call election: 12%
Original deal: 9%

Field work: 16/01/19 – 18/01/19
Sample size: 2,046

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) January 21, 2019

fffffffff

couple that w the rob ford report out today which shows the public are a lot less concerned about NDB than MPs (and that they fully understand that NDB doesnt mean staying in the EU)

#LDIABL

I don’t believe people do understand no deal, they’re all acting like Stephen Bush warned about, assuming the worst can never happen.

they understand it means leaving the EU, contrary to what some people were saying yesterday. I don’t understand what no deal means - no one has actually laid out viscerally, in plain terms, all of the consequences. they just mention food shortages and lorries queuing, and I think people just hand wave that away because it’s not concrete enough

The Brexit and Public Opinion 2019 report (pdf) from the UK in a Changing Europe project mentioned earlier (see 10.52am and 12.14am) also includes an essay from the leading psephologist Sir John Curtice looking at whether voters really want a second referendum. He says the answer depends enormously on how you frame the question. If you ask people if they favour the public being offered a “vote” on the deal, they are likely to say yes

*whistles ifly*

For starters 'No Deal' in these idiot polls should be listed 'Do nothing'.

As I recall (anecdotally) a lot of the Leave vote at the time was "ach sure it'll be bumpy but we'll get through it and it'll be better DUNKIRK" about the whole thing, and it feels like they're the same about No Deal now. In particular a goodish chunk of the older generation have been quite insulated from the gutting of the social contract and imagine there's still someone looking out for them; they're simply not able to comprehend what No Deal would entail.

Even here in Remainy Bubble-land I've heard a lot of people say that "nothing will change", even people who also joke about Brexit being stupid

(not that I have made any particularly useful preparations for things not being fine myself, just fretted mostly quietly to myself and been called a miseryguts/worrywort/paranoid loon every time I've mentioned it out loud. OK most of those were from my bf who knows very well that I am all of those things tbh)

xxp "do nothing" still sounds quite reassuringly status-quo-esque, no? I am a fan of "crash out" but Brexiteers complain about that being overdramatic, project fear, etc, so if someone can find a significantly toned down but still disruptive sounding version...

(the Germans seem to call it un-orderly Brexit, which also seems a bit ambiguous/euphemistic but I guess it fits and Germans do like having "everything in order")

Why didn't the poll have 'stop brexit' on it?

Yeah that strikes me as such a big omission that the rest of the poll is basically worthless.

23% for second ref and over 30% for no deal. Pathetic.

I don't think this reflects real levels of support either. If both a second poll *and* a Remain win became serious prospects, which they currently aren't, support for that option would rocket. Additionally some/lots of that vote is siphoned off in other polls by the option of 'No Brexit at all'.

Ultimately we're still in a situation where nearly half the country would, given the choice, still opt to Remain. It's not like there's a massive groundswell of people moving over to the Leave side.

I think we could do with less of treating “just get on with it! Bored now!” as a serious opinion worth considering.

I think quite a lot of ppl who voted remain think it's no longer viable

Honestly as someone who does follow this nonsense closely, things change so frequently that I don’t blame people for feeling defeatist about the whole thing. It’s exhausting.

I feel like "Remain" and "No Deal" could both win a second referendum - I can't really see who it is that wants anything else

No Deal is still a minority preference by some distance, somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 of the population want some kind of deal. Unless things change rapidly I don't see the point of worrying too much about them.

According to that poll over half of the country still want some kind of Brexit then if we include no deal as a brand of brexit. A 1/3 want no deal, that's not a minority. Nor is 2nd ref but you got to laugh that more want to go now.

One option not on the poll is revoking art50 or even cancelling Brexit.

Poll isn't really clear on that though, it's multi-choice (the percentages add up to 150% or something) so you can't really see exactly what percentage of people want the Brexit options, unless that's broken down somewhere else