"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

There is no way the EU all of a sudden will agree to a Norway style deal for the UK. Not because the UK aggressively chose to leave the EU. This shouldn't be hard to understand. No rewards for countries leaving the pact etc

Yes, there's that too

Some form of soft brexit is the only thing that could ever get a parliamentary majority. Which will be seen as an historic betrayal on the part of the hard brexiteers and the whole thing will go on and on and on for another generation at least, permnently destabilising any government without a thumping majority. There is no escaping the brexit hell.

No? They’ll have to pay in but they won’t be able to veto things like the steel dumping plan and obvs solves the border issue. Seems a better scenario than a no deal crash out.

is it possibly the case that this crap deal that just got voted down was the best case scenario?

The crap deal wasn't really a deal though. It was the basis for discussing a deal during a transition period

But maybe that was as good as it gets

norway-style satisfies roughly 0% of brexit voters surely (it includes FoM)?

― ( ͡☉ ͜ʖ ͡☉) (jim in vancouver), Monday, 21 January 2019 23:03 (thirteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

*tony blair hands* let me be clear. fuck brexit voters

lbi, i think its on you not to dictate that a customs union etc "norway type" deal isnt possible when it very clearly is. the description is quite obv imo a handy way of depicting a soft brexit that eliminates the need for eg backstop

i also think its quite likely to have a lot more legs with the eu than suggested. the eu has been very clear that it wants a deal and its been very clear that the current deadlock is completely predicated on May's oersonal red lines.

a softer uk approach with real concessions to keep ireland happy would quite clearly imo buy time and concessions elsewhere

not a reward for leaving and not what brexiteers wanted but the best that can be made of it from here tbh

If you insist on obsessing over freedom of movement, it would be.

lol i think i actually talked myself into letting myself be clear ten times in that post

Let me be clear. Nothing has changed. Brexit means Brexit.

brexit ozil

wto salah

firmino

both parties have dismissed the prospect of being "rule takers", which any EFTA type deal would involve, right?

of course the UK will still be rule-takers, even if they crash out, because the EU is the local hegemon and the UK's primary export location

and "a" customs union would involve an assload of rule-taking

so it's a kind of symbolic stance rather than a red line - so could be get-overable

the EU is the local hegemon and the UK's primary export location

surely North America is poised to fall into the UK's lap like a ripe fruit, ready at a moment's notice to consume ever-vaster quantities of whatever it is you people export.

Why my own household bought a can of Lyle’s Golden Syrup just recently

now why would a polish minister fly a flag suggesting ireland should weaken on the border issue

darragh otm - there’s a political will to avoid no deal in the EU, certainly above and beyond any desire to be seen to “punish” the U.K. (if it ever was a desire, the effect political and popular of watching the U.K. crash around like a drunk for the past two and a bit years has more than achieved that) and Norway deal (or Norway-style if you like) is a legitimate way to do that and i’m sure would be acceptable to the EU. Just not the Tory party.

So I don't *think* that these two amendments are contradictory but I've completely lost track of what's going on. I'm assuming Dominic Grieve is going to chuck one on the pile as well.

is the grieve amendment limited to allowing parliament to control the standing orders for EU withdrawal related issues* only ?

*whatever those are.

must be some potential for shenanigans if not. albeit limited by the requirement for an item needing proposers from people in 5 parties

not that parliament has bandwidth for any shenanigans really.

Those repeating the idea that lots of people think no deal means no Brexit might like to look at the terrible evidence it appears to be based on (a Twitter poll where most people probably thought they were voting on on what they wanted to happen – why use the word 'vote'?)

We want to know, do you really know what a no deal Brexit means?

Tonight at 7pm on @SkyNews we're hosting a special #BrexitCrisis programme live from Leeds to discuss some of the key issues facing the country.

Vote below.

— Sky News (@SkyNews) January 20, 2019

This is stunning.

A senior executive at the NHS joins a healthcare startup and then, before she leaves government, writes an article for The Times under her NHS title in which she praises the startup, without disclosing that they've hired herhttps://t.co/SqqRCjXpQy

— kadhim (＾ｰ^)ノ (@kadhimshubber) January 22, 2019

Juliet Bauer, longtime News International employee, current NHS one writes puff piece in Times about her next employers GP app. You could make it up etc....

Giving her an NHS job at all was the first mistake.

Why my own household bought a can of Lyle’s Golden Syrup just recently

oh no, don't mention Tate & Lyle...

xp
a decade working for a scumbag who would gladly see the NHS liquidated on your CV is not the best look for an NHS vacancy.

these poor humble News International employees are just doing a job, they don't have the privilege of choosing their boss etc...

The apparent fact that May's Plan B is 'one more heave' to get the EU to change their minds on the backstop is pretty deranging, like there's a Roomba in charge of the country.

i am well behind on this thread and totally irrelevant to proceedings, but this analogy is pure genius

*googles Roomba*

it’s a robot vacuum cleaner that functions by repeatedly running headfirst into walls

the maybot hasn't acquired that level of sentience yet, it just reads scripts.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/15/roomba-robot-vacuum-poopocalypse-facebook-post

perhaps we can only hope somebody applies this modification

I hooked a neural network up to my Roomba. I wanted it to learn to navigate without bumping into things, so I set up a reward scheme to encourage speed and discourage hitting the bumper sensors.

It learnt to drive backwards, because there are no bumpers on the back. https://t.co/8PdR3p6ePZ

— Custard Smingleigh (@Smingleigh) November 8, 2018

It learnt to drive backwards, because there are no bumpers on the back.

if only it had… a backstop

It is in favour of freedom of movement though?

couldnt draw out the border on a map

"Creatures bred for speed grow really tall and generate high velocity by falling over" is basically Jacob Rees-Mogg and his plans for the UK?

(Also thanks, AA!)

is the grieve amendment limited to allowing parliament to control the standing orders for EU withdrawal related issues* only ?

It is, but it would create a precedent.

If there was a second referendum, May would resign, I reckons.

And Jacob Rees Mogg would literally explode with the confliction.

speaking of health appointments as we were earlier this morning (ahem), I see my former MP has been given a peerage to be "Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Health & Innovation", which seems slightly suspicious to me

went straight into politics after university, MP for 7 years, has been spending the 18 months since losing her seat working for lobbying firms and being "advisor" to a private "digital healthcare" company, no health/background before chairing the Science & Technology Select Committee, voted against gay marriage & assisted dying due to her Christian beliefs. perhaps ironically, ousted an actual GP as MP after some vicious leaflets went round about him from an evangelical Christian group, but tbf I've nothing that says there's any connection

nobody I've talked to locally seems to think she did much for the constituency but she's clearly impressed someone

the Tories have a real problem with the size of the pool of MPs available to become Ministers and PPSs, here's a thread- pretty much being more-or-less sentient, not being a swivel-eyed Brexiteer and not having served at a higher level will get you a job:

A short thread on what could prove to be a major headache for the PM.

The below @instituteforgov chart shows how few MPs there are left that Theresa May could appoint as ministers/PPSs.

MPs with blue or pink squares are those whose appointment might be problematic for the Govt. pic.twitter.com/u2TZtdF0Kt

— Alasdair de Costa (@addadc) January 21, 2019

years of inbreeding have caused congenital idiocy among an entire generation of Tory MPs, pretty much

corollary of cameron’s approach to maintaining a stable cabinet is that a lot of the conservative party are underpromoted and untested in positions of responsibility

It looks like the eyes-catching part of Grieve's amendment has been withdrawn, now it's just setting out days for debate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/jan/22/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-under-pressure-to-allow-ministers-free-vote-on-amendment-to-block-no-deal-politics-live?page=with:block-5c46f63ae4b058cfe6d94c73#block-5c46f63ae4b058cfe6d94c73

The former attorney general Dominic Grieve has put forward his motion to allow backbenchers to table different Brexit motions for debate six full days before the UK leaves the EU – 12 and 26 February and 5, 12, 19 and 26 March. You can read it on the order paper (pdf), on page 51.

That would give MPs time in the House of Commons to debate ideas such as a customs union, Labour’s own Brexit plan, a second referendum, no deal and the Norway model. Motions would be amendable and would have political force.

Grieve has removed the most controversial aspect of his amendment from one of the leaked drafts, which would have allowed a motion put forward by a minority of 300 MPs from at least five parties – including 10 Tory MPs – to be debated as the first item for MPs in the Commons the next day.

theory seen today that may is dangling prospect of parliament outflanking her in order to force ger own rump to yield to her deal or no brexit

i mean sure thats possible im just not confident that

i)she knows the odds and where the brink is

ii) the people shes performing this act for care

Six days does not seem like enough time to me.

Jo Swinson, the deputy Lib Dem leader, told the People’s Vote press conference this morning that Jeremy Corbyn had shown “a dreadful lack of leadership” over Brexit, because Labour was “riding both horses” on a second referendum. (See 9.26am.) She said:

Labour is at a point now where it has to choose. The Labour leadership has been riding both horses for far too long.

Labour can decide. Their votes will be pivotal. They can either make Brexit happen or Labour can stop Brexit. The time for decision is upon us.

As ever, great to see Lib Dem priorities as polls keep showing voters wanting a no-deal Brexit.

ffs

23% for second ref and over 30% for no deal. Pathetic.

UK, ICM poll

What should be the PM's next steps?

No Deal: 32%
Second Referendum: 27%
Extend Article 50: 23%
Renegotiate a 'Harder Brexit': 21%
Resign: 15%
Renegotiate a 'Softer Brexit': 15%
Call election: 12%
Original deal: 9%

Field work: 16/01/19 – 18/01/19
Sample size: 2,046

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) January 21, 2019

fffffffff

couple that w the rob ford report out today which shows the public are a lot less concerned about NDB than MPs (and that they fully understand that NDB doesnt mean staying in the EU)