"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

That’s a pretty convincing read

Seems legit to me, but I worry that no-deal headbangers will kill us all nonetheless.

This happened in Scotland:

The SNP MP was eventually escorted from a library by policehttps://t.co/nLXaayd3Rp

— The National (@ScotNational) January 18, 2019

A lot there hangs on the idea that article 50 can be revoked with a view to retriggering in the foreseeable future. I think that's far from uncontroversial.

I'm not convinced that can happen, in fact I think it's been explicitly ruled out.

By which I mean the ECJ ruling is that the UK can revoke Article 50 if it wants to stay in the EU, not to buy itself more time to leave at a later date.

his earlier post (linked through from the one above) adds some additional colour https://medium.com/@Bickerrecord/hope-for-revoke-4f3f7548c746

Some caution is needed here, as paras 148–156 of the ECJ verdict on the Wightman et al. case, which confirmed that the UK can revoke unilaterally, also made clear that “A further limit on the exercise of the right of unilateral revocation arises from the principles of good faith and sincere cooperation”, but as a lay reader I cannot see that a proper Revoke & Deliberate process would fall into the category of ‘bad faith’, even if it were to keep option open for later reinstatement of the Article 50 process on new reasoning.

It probably works better if you can only revoke once: it then has the same mind-focusing effect on Brexiters that the no-deal does, without being insane and lethal.

Yes but if it amounts to an automatic IN CASE OF EMERGENCY STOP BREXIT button will enough MPs be persuaded to vote for the amendment in the first place? Seems unlikely.

If it’s a choice between an emergency cancellation vs an emergency catastrophe I think you could swing it. But point def taken

plenty of insane and lethal middle aged losers torching mps houses and invoking wat tyler amirite

They might if it was the 11th hour, but insane as it is, that level of pressure isn't really on them yet so, like Matt, can't see that amendment passing.

So much can only be done if most of the electorate has the sense that we're really at national emergency stage, not just "politicians faffing about" which I think is a widespread perception.

My fantasy is the prime minster, whoever it is at that point, making an address to the nation that comes clean about how fucked the whole idea of the referendum was. And calling another ha ha. No, at that point my fantasy peters out.

What's becoming clearer to me by the day is that we either need the catharsis of cancelled Brexit or No Deal

i agree with that from kind-of outside

If Brexit is cancelled, is the UK finally going to become a real full member? Maybe it's better for the EU without half-assed exception/discount demanding semi-members where you can only win elections if you say "firm on europe" twice during every speech.

Sorry. I have a cold. :-)

well if they crash out and want back in I don't think they'll get any special treatment; presumably a cancellation would mean status quo ante

Not an unreasonable question Stan, god knows if I was the EU I'd be done with the UK by now

unfortunately weve got an ugly child with ye and the eu are the in laws

I don’t think it needs 11th hour, does it? It’s just replacing a No Deal default with a rescind default - and the house is opposed to No Deal.

question becomes then who in the house feels theyre benefiting from a protracted situation where no deal stays on the table

boles amendment is going to be something along the lines of 'if vote not passed a certain time before exit day, seek an extension. then, if extension not agreed by [july? whenever new european parliament sits], revoke'

rough current numbers
may’s deal 200
referendum 178
labour’s “permanent CU” 141
no deal hell shriekers 120

election counterfactual timeline above depends on plausibility of anti-no deal caucus (remainers and sensible brexiteers) voting boles through in a non crisis situation

... and TM wetting the bed in anticipation. would be a grim prospect for her, contemplating rolling the dice on another GE. you'd have to wonder if the men in grey suits might hastily arrange for gove to be installed somehow

question becomes then who in the house feels theyre benefiting from a protracted situation where no deal stays on the table

Oh in the house.. N/m.

I’m drunk fyi

(On Kilkenny btw #teamEU)

Labour and the SNP are both anti no-deal stans, so you’d expect them to whip for a Boles amendment even roughly like that one. Probably lose 3/5 Lab headbangers, so you only need 10-15 rational Tories.

The numbers are arguably close enough that May’s choice is a roll of the die either way.

If Boles passes she has no leverage and has to abandon anything she’d accept as Brexit: essentially game over in 14 days.

If she plumps for the election she carries on at least until February. She seems to be in day by day mode right now, so I can see it with a lot of squinting.

its the hurling has you hooked id say xp

I don’t think it needs 11th hour, does it? It’s just replacing a No Deal default with a rescind default - and the house is opposed to No Deal.

It doesn't matter at this point that they don't want no deal. It's the default and that gives them personal cover. Actively switching to Remain being the default would be too terrifying a prospect for many of them electorally. Even if you say "oh, it's not actually going to come to it and be Remain, this is just to concentrate minds", awareness of how hard it has proved to get consensus on any form of Brexit – and paradoxically, the nagging knowledge that most of them don't instinctively want Brexit at all – makes a majority for that kind of amendment too much like playing with fire I think. It'd be hard enough to get them to vote for a second referendum at this stage, let alone opening the door to Remain without a public vote.

The French government authorized 50 million euros of spending this week to prepare for no deal, which is now seen as not unlikely, at the ports. Infrastructure week begins!

Also the French research funding agency admins are urging us to apply for European funds this year, since with no deal the UK will at any rate not be able to apply in this year's funding rounds (and perhaps will no longer receive the funds they have already secured from the EU). We are sharpening our knives.

https://i.imgur.com/9EjhSl7.jpg

A Swift rebuttal.

fookin' dirty L***s fan pwned by tory!

Shit just got real. pic.twitter.com/KSAVeMLPpr

— Greggs Truther (@invisibleste) January 19, 2019

"It is the folly of too many..."

Gawd, this overly mannered posing is the mark of pudding for brains. Get this man an editor. Or a keeper.

It’s a Swift quote. Hopefully they’re not looking at A Modest Proposal for no deal solutions.

diane abbott is a hard bastard. I definitely could not go to derby, sit and listen to all the gammons try to tear strips off me, watch rory stewart's homunculus-like grinning rictus, listen to isobel oakeshott's disingenuous nonsense... and still give back as good as I'm getting
― ||||||||, Thursday, 17 January 2019 23:34 (two days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/diane-abbott-question-time-fiona-bruce-bbc-abuse-mistreatment-a8736566.html

"Above all, it seems she is not afraid to appear unfair as a presenter."

putting it mildly. even by bbc standards that was a horror show.

What's becoming clearer to me by the day is that we either need the catharsis of cancelled Brexit or No Deal

interestingly imago here with the exact opposite line to rory stewart, who seems to be aiming for some 'everybody loses' realpolitik

in completely unrelated news a car bomb seems to have gone off in derry

Welp

do labour want to whip for this grieve amendment (which allows a minority of MPs to control parliamentary business, under certain conditions) ? seems potentially risky to rip up the rulebook like this even though potentially expedient in this particular scenario

are we allowed to link conhome pieces or nah.

anyway they have a good one on "25 questions about (another) early general election – and the horror show it could be for the Conservatives"... which doesn't even touch on the fact that they'd be calling an election when the prevailing UK economic environment is currently pretty challenging and trending south

What would the manifesto say about everything else bar Brexit? The spending review? Tax? Social care? Universal Credit? Reducing net migration “to the tens of thousands”? Health and food and lifestyle? Selective schools? Knife crime? The pursuit of British servicemen through the courts? Tuition fees? Home ownership? HS2? And what would it say about how Britain should be different after Brexit?

do we get the sense they've done any of the necessary hard thinking on any of this

I’m starting to feel like this could one of those times where the rule book gets rewritten for the better.

I FTPA is turning out to be far more consequential in practice than was understood. It was sold as a limitation on the exec that removed its ability to call an election. But that was always nonsense - which opposition votes against an election? What it does do (as ppl pointed out at the time) is protect a zombie exec: any other govt would have collapsed over the Deal vote.

Now, so long as it has a confidence agreement, any exec can cling to power as if it had a huge majority, and naturally can control parliamentary business like it does. That is proving to be a bad situation. Parties with tiny minorities shouldn’t be able to act with impunity in the way the May admin has.

Strengthening the minority parties seems like it will benefit everyone, and is the only way to make sure weak execs don’t wield disproportionate power, at the cost of potentially limiting strong ones.

Yes, that might cost Labour a bit if they ever got a Blair-like majority again, but the way the Leave/Remain splits across party lines that seems an incredibly remote prospect. And even if they did, it still might save Labour from itself the next time a Blair tries to pull an Iraq. Xp

It’s a Swift quote.

Begging Swift's pardon, but citing that quote at this time in regard to the politics of the moment in UK is still a sign of pudding for brains, because inapt quotation of a well-respected author, while no ill reflection upon the author or the quotation, clearly reveals the inadequacies of the one quoting. Swift would brush that man off his coattails with a harrumph.

in completely unrelated news a car bomb seems to have gone off in derry

Yeaaahh, that's nothing that anyone in Great Britain has ever paid any attention to, unless there's dozens of casualties... well, actually, even then.

Parties with tiny minorities shouldn’t be able to act with impunity in the way the May admin has.

Those are all bad things but is any of that caused by FTPA? Even the "any other govt would have collapsed over the Deal vote" bit? For the government to have collapsed they would still have needed to lose a confidence vote, which in reality they wouldn't have lost because they maths is still the same.

Yes. No Labour MPs rebelled to vote against Callaghan or abstain in the 1979 confidence vote. They lost by one as Alfred Broughton couldn't vote as he was on his deathbed apparently!

As long as the government has a majority or a DUP on its side I guess confidence votes are always a bit of a show rather than a way to directly bring a government down.

He died four days later. He should have let himself be wheeled in, and die in the division lobby as a martyr to the party and parliamentary reform.

Back to the Boles amendment, as far as I can see it makes no provision for Article 50 revocation should the EU decline the request for an extension, so it's not really ruling out no deal at all. At best, assuming the EU agrees, it's just kicking it down the road, right?

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8476

I've heard people say the EU are up for extending to July, but not definitely not past this: I note that December is the preferred Boles date. I don't really understand all this: can someone explain the EU's position re: the EU elections and an extension past July?