Oscars 2019

if vulture's right in its predictions, these are gonna be the least interesting possible noms from a great year in film

https://www.vulture.com/2019/01/oscars-2019-predictions-who-will-be-nominated.html

At least they, unlike me, think Vice is getting snubbed for the big one.

Here we go. God rest our souls.

if Hawke and Schrader are dissed I can skip the show w/ enthusiasm

Did anyone predict Roma for supporting actress? If so, bravo

Nope.

Morbs, you can get enthused. Schrader did get in, though.

Fat Viggo and Fat Bale over Hawke is pretty bad.

Hawke not being nominated invalidates the entire thing for me.

Richard E Grant! Can You Ever Forgive Me? totally passed me by, anyone seen it?

Hasn't been released in the UK yet

Good for Driver, Schrader and the Coens (sneaking in to the Adapted Screenplay category on a technicality), though. Also, "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" for Best Song made me smile (though I prefer "Surly Joe").

xp ah that explains it.

First Reformed getting its only nomination in one of its least deserving categories is classic Oscars.

Still, Spike Lee gets his first directing nomination and for a brief moment, I'm fine saying that's all that matters in the Oscar world.

'Best Director' never makes any sense; some years the actual Best Film doesn't even get a Best Director nom, i still don't know how the F that works.

Bright spots:
- Lee gets director
- 2 foreign films in director/cinematography
- HALE CO. in doc feature!
- Terence Blanchard in score
- foreign slate is about as good as it gets, given this is the Oscars

Toughest to swallow:
- Hawke/Washington both axed
- Vice gets all the key nods it needs to win
- First Man not in score

'Best Director' never makes any sense; some years the actual Best Film doesn't even get a Best Director nom, i still don't know how the F that works.

― piscesx, Tuesday, January 22, 2019 9:01 AM

nah, it's easy: for the Academy, you can make one of the year's five to ten best movies without necessarily standing out as a director. It shouldn't ever totally line up, even in critics awards.

Is it really Cooper vs. Bale? I had no idea Bale had any strength other than inevitability behind the nomination.

- HALE CO. in doc feature!

Actually, RBG aside, doc feature's about as good as that category gets too.

Reform the actors branch!

The Favourite - 10
ROMA - 10
A Star Is Born - 8
Vice - 8
Black Panther - 7
BlacKkKlansman - 6
Bohemian Rhapsody - 5
Green Book - 5
Ballad of Buster Scruggs - 4
First Man - 4
Mary Poppins Returns - 4

The only best picture nominees with the directing/editing/screenplay/acting nominations quadfecta are VICE, THE FAVOURITE and BLACKKKLANSMAN.

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY missed screenplay and director.
ROMA missed editing.
BLACK PANTHER missed acting.
A STAR IS BORN and GREEN BOOK missed directing (biggest silver lining of the morning).

I guess I'm on Team Favourite.

I'd say I listed those three in descending order of win likelihood. Though at this point I'm predicting ROMA to win.

Hawke is so up his own arse these days on the born-artiste tip, hard to root for him

Hawke is so up his own arse these days on the born-artiste tip, hard to root for him

How often has a film been nominated for both BP and Foreign Language Film?

Hawke and First Reformed for BP were robbed, boo.

xp Ethan Hawke's a two-time-nom post, two-time-nom post

Isle of Dogs feels like it came out 5 years ago.

To say nothing of Black Panther.

How often has a film been nominated for both BP and Foreign Language Film?

this has happened a few times - Life is Beautiful for starters

Did Stan And Ollie come out too late?

- 2 foreign films in director/cinematography

Check that. Three foreign-language films in cinematography. That has to be a new record for a tech category.

Amour

just realized Colette got snubbed. that sucks.

I never thought she had a chance th

that is, until I realized last week that Aparicio was in

I would've thought she was a shoo-in on the "most acting" principle alone

you can make one of the year's five to ten best movies without necessarily standing out as a director

I don't at all mind directors getting awards, but I still find this odd. How do you isolate for the skill of the director in a film except by taking the film as a whole?

Why is the title of ROMA in all caps, everywhere? Is the neighborhood's name an acronym?

"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" for Best Song made me smile

I just found out the other day that's Gillian Welch/Dave Rawlings.

Did Stan And Ollie come out too late?

About 3% of the Academy has any idea who Laurel & Hardy were.

you can make one of the year's five to ten best movies without necessarily standing out as a director

This isn't it at all. The directors' branch likely votes for the directors of what THEY, a small subset of the members, think are the 5 best films.

Hawke is so up his own arse these days on the born-artiste tip, hard to root for him

Do you know Spike Lee?

xp: If the primary job of a director (not auteur) is tone control, there's plenty of great direction in mediocre films.

I haven't seen Vice, but according to its critical reception, its principal failing is its all over the map, tonally. Which makes its nomination galling.

Just saw a morning news show graphic of all five best directors' mugs alongside each other and Adam MmKay just looks like a dolt next to the rest of them.

Mr Rogers' corpse snubbed for Best Doc Feature! Amazing that “Hale County This Morning, This Evening" might've displaced it. I assume Justice Ginsburg's cult will carry the day.

Presumably Vice is intentionally a tonal patchwork. It's possible to do that well or badly.

yeah, I did not hear of Marina de Tavira until today.

How often has a film been nominated for both BP and Foreign Language Film?

This is the sixth time:

Z (1969)
The Emigrants (Foreign Language Film in 1971, Best Picture in 1972)
Life Is Beautiful (1998)
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2000)
Amour (2012)
Roma (2018)

(Cries and Whispers and Il Postino were nominated for BP but didn't receive a Foreign-Language Film nomination because they weren't submitted by their respective countries. And Grand Illusion got a BP nomination before the Foreign-Language category was created.)

Aw. Bao. That made me cry.

The Film Experience guy got 100% on BP, foreign film, and animated film, and I assume he was not alone.

http://thefilmexperience.net/prediction-index/

This isn't it at all. The directors' branch likely votes for the directors of what THEY, a small subset of the members, think are the 5 best films.

This is one of the reasons.

Mr Rogers' corpse snubbed for Best Doc Feature! Amazing that “Hale County This Morning, This Evening" might've displaced it. I assume Justice Ginsburg's cult will carry the day.

A good rule of thumb is that any time you can look at a category and say "with the exception of [title] this is a surprisingly good slate," [title] will always win.

RBG is one of the most [title] movies I've seen this year.

this doc short may win for Trumpian reasons

Congrats to @fieldofvision for the Oscar nomination for “A Night at the Garden” which @Schwarz called the most terrifying movie you can watch at Halloween (or any time) https://t.co/792fdGVm0N #OscarNoms

— Charlotte Greensit (@cgreensit) January 22, 2019