"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

D:

Thinking appears to be that if the deal doesn't pass we'll really need one by then, and if it DOES pass it's 95% likely to be with a backstop and so the DUP will be incensed and pull support for the govt in which case we'll also need one.

GE on 28/02

― ||||||||, Friday, 18 January 2019 13:22 (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

fp for tease

Three Cabinet ministers, and a further six junior ministers, have told their local party associations to prepare for an early election. https://t.co/4lWqpDtGBq

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) January 18, 2019

"go back to your constituencies and prepare for lol we're all going to die"

It’s our border and we should be able to do whatever we like with it.

No call for posting this when I'm not allowed drink at work.

oh good, that'll help

that will definitely give a very clear mandate for, errr, something, not just waste time with all of its likeliest outcomes leaving us just as paralysed as we currently are

I don't think that date is a real one btw

It’s not a real one, I’m parsing that as shorthand for “ASAP”.

dae it dae it dae it dae it dae it

otherwise we’re on the shitebag timeline

btw re the Times article abt the DUP/Customs Union, today's Guardian politics liveblog now (well, since 11:58) includes:

Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, has just put out a statement saying the Times report is not true. She said:

The report published in the Times this morning about the DUP is inaccurate and no doubt designed to undermine efforts to get the necessary changes to the withdrawal agreement.

The prime minister is very clear on our position. We have been consistent that for us it is the backstop which needs to be dealt with.

For the future we want an agreement which returns control of our money, our laws and our borders through a UK wide free trade arrangement with the EU.

The story in the Times is an attempt to cause division. Such tactics are not new to us and as in the past will not succeed.

RIP faint sense of hope I felt reading that article (also slightly dashed in the Ireland edition but not the GB edition - thank you, work subscription to LexisNexis - with an extra final paragraph saying "Meanwhile, Simon Coveney, the tánaiste, told the Dáil the EU would be helpful but the withdrawal agreement was not open for renegotiation", which was not super-clear about whether he'd said that specifically regarding the all-UK CU option or in general)

Honestly I don't think Cameron sticking around would have made the slightest bit of difference, if people had been prepared to listen to him we wouldn't have ended up in this situation in the first place.

interesting thread

The DUP's strategy has always been to erode the GFA & power-sharing gradually, which means pushing Brexit but not so far as to trigger a backlash in NI. This means they were always likely to favour an outcome closer to that proposed by Labour than the Tories. https://t.co/ArdyO3dxCg

— David Timoney (@fromarsetoelbow) January 18, 2019

pic.twitter.com/8cPIAWnHqb

— tom 🕺 (@ttgg321) January 16, 2019

off brexit and relating to the previous conversation on local government funding, i thought this article on boosting local economies left behind by austerity with a mixture of co-ops, collectives, local procurement and local gov mandated business policies (min wage) was interesting. pioneered in cleveland (US) and preston (UK).

i say “off brexit” but obviously this is very much a response to the logic of austerity/tory ideology.

I think other models of trying to get investment in the north have focused on investing regional city areas and transport links to them to avoid jam spreading. that’s partly as a consequence of the limited investment - you have to focus your efforts, partly because many travel into those city hubs *from* these towns.

i think this should be complementary to that view as this is local rather than central gov investment.

this relates to pomenitul’s post about localised/nationalist leftism. i do think there is a fairly sizeable aspect of this in the left - in The Rise and Fall of the British Nation i *think* David Edgerton would argue it’s inherited from the post-war nationalist policies of self-sufficiency as a model for future leftism. here - if you’re not locally based it’s going to be more difficult for you to win contacts even at a lower cost. while all this doesn’t necessitate antagonism to migratory labour, it can allow it fairly easily without explicitly stated rules for how it should be allowed/managed/protected.

i think we see a bit of the above in corbyn’s stance now and labour policy more generally. there is the turn towards nationalisation, the wariness of european free movement without clear structural statements about workers. whether such a policy - particularly the sort of nationally-focused vertical integration of industry which i think is the Labour policy - is wise, doable, affordable or sensible in a Just in Time model of globalised supply chains and financing is hard to say. it may be all of those things! but it does also feel a bit like its prior assumptions are those of 1950 rather than 2020.

TEHRESA DO IT U COWARD
https://medium.com/@Bickerrecord/why-a-feb-28th-election-might-happen-20bcd62349f4

That’s a pretty convincing read

Seems legit to me, but I worry that no-deal headbangers will kill us all nonetheless.

This happened in Scotland:

The SNP MP was eventually escorted from a library by policehttps://t.co/nLXaayd3Rp

— The National (@ScotNational) January 18, 2019

A lot there hangs on the idea that article 50 can be revoked with a view to retriggering in the foreseeable future. I think that's far from uncontroversial.

I'm not convinced that can happen, in fact I think it's been explicitly ruled out.

By which I mean the ECJ ruling is that the UK can revoke Article 50 if it wants to stay in the EU, not to buy itself more time to leave at a later date.

his earlier post (linked through from the one above) adds some additional colour https://medium.com/@Bickerrecord/hope-for-revoke-4f3f7548c746

Some caution is needed here, as paras 148–156 of the ECJ verdict on the Wightman et al. case, which confirmed that the UK can revoke unilaterally, also made clear that “A further limit on the exercise of the right of unilateral revocation arises from the principles of good faith and sincere cooperation”, but as a lay reader I cannot see that a proper Revoke & Deliberate process would fall into the category of ‘bad faith’, even if it were to keep option open for later reinstatement of the Article 50 process on new reasoning.

It probably works better if you can only revoke once: it then has the same mind-focusing effect on Brexiters that the no-deal does, without being insane and lethal.

Yes but if it amounts to an automatic IN CASE OF EMERGENCY STOP BREXIT button will enough MPs be persuaded to vote for the amendment in the first place? Seems unlikely.

If it’s a choice between an emergency cancellation vs an emergency catastrophe I think you could swing it. But point def taken

plenty of insane and lethal middle aged losers torching mps houses and invoking wat tyler amirite

They might if it was the 11th hour, but insane as it is, that level of pressure isn't really on them yet so, like Matt, can't see that amendment passing.

So much can only be done if most of the electorate has the sense that we're really at national emergency stage, not just "politicians faffing about" which I think is a widespread perception.

My fantasy is the prime minster, whoever it is at that point, making an address to the nation that comes clean about how fucked the whole idea of the referendum was. And calling another ha ha. No, at that point my fantasy peters out.

What's becoming clearer to me by the day is that we either need the catharsis of cancelled Brexit or No Deal

i agree with that from kind-of outside

If Brexit is cancelled, is the UK finally going to become a real full member? Maybe it's better for the EU without half-assed exception/discount demanding semi-members where you can only win elections if you say "firm on europe" twice during every speech.

Sorry. I have a cold. :-)

well if they crash out and want back in I don't think they'll get any special treatment; presumably a cancellation would mean status quo ante

Not an unreasonable question Stan, god knows if I was the EU I'd be done with the UK by now

unfortunately weve got an ugly child with ye and the eu are the in laws

I don’t think it needs 11th hour, does it? It’s just replacing a No Deal default with a rescind default - and the house is opposed to No Deal.

question becomes then who in the house feels theyre benefiting from a protracted situation where no deal stays on the table

boles amendment is going to be something along the lines of 'if vote not passed a certain time before exit day, seek an extension. then, if extension not agreed by [july? whenever new european parliament sits], revoke'

rough current numbers
may’s deal 200
referendum 178
labour’s “permanent CU” 141
no deal hell shriekers 120

election counterfactual timeline above depends on plausibility of anti-no deal caucus (remainers and sensible brexiteers) voting boles through in a non crisis situation

... and TM wetting the bed in anticipation. would be a grim prospect for her, contemplating rolling the dice on another GE. you'd have to wonder if the men in grey suits might hastily arrange for gove to be installed somehow

question becomes then who in the house feels theyre benefiting from a protracted situation where no deal stays on the table

Oh in the house.. N/m.

I’m drunk fyi

(On Kilkenny btw #teamEU)

Labour and the SNP are both anti no-deal stans, so you’d expect them to whip for a Boles amendment even roughly like that one. Probably lose 3/5 Lab headbangers, so you only need 10-15 rational Tories.

The numbers are arguably close enough that May’s choice is a roll of the die either way.

If Boles passes she has no leverage and has to abandon anything she’d accept as Brexit: essentially game over in 14 days.

If she plumps for the election she carries on at least until February. She seems to be in day by day mode right now, so I can see it with a lot of squinting.

its the hurling has you hooked id say xp

I don’t think it needs 11th hour, does it? It’s just replacing a No Deal default with a rescind default - and the house is opposed to No Deal.

It doesn't matter at this point that they don't want no deal. It's the default and that gives them personal cover. Actively switching to Remain being the default would be too terrifying a prospect for many of them electorally. Even if you say "oh, it's not actually going to come to it and be Remain, this is just to concentrate minds", awareness of how hard it has proved to get consensus on any form of Brexit – and paradoxically, the nagging knowledge that most of them don't instinctively want Brexit at all – makes a majority for that kind of amendment too much like playing with fire I think. It'd be hard enough to get them to vote for a second referendum at this stage, let alone opening the door to Remain without a public vote.

The French government authorized 50 million euros of spending this week to prepare for no deal, which is now seen as not unlikely, at the ports. Infrastructure week begins!

Also the French research funding agency admins are urging us to apply for European funds this year, since with no deal the UK will at any rate not be able to apply in this year's funding rounds (and perhaps will no longer receive the funds they have already secured from the EU). We are sharpening our knives.

https://i.imgur.com/9EjhSl7.jpg

A Swift rebuttal.

fookin' dirty L***s fan pwned by tory!

Shit just got real. pic.twitter.com/KSAVeMLPpr

— Greggs Truther (@invisibleste) January 19, 2019

"It is the folly of too many..."

Gawd, this overly mannered posing is the mark of pudding for brains. Get this man an editor. Or a keeper.