"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

I used to think QT couldn't get any worse, but F Bruce is now officially worse than Dimbers at containing blatant racism/toryism in the audience + panel.

Isabel Oakeshott telling notional Remainers “we” are going to ‘tell you again’ was just begging for ‘who? You and Lord Ashcroft?’ but bless Diane Abbott for trying to mention Leave illegalities and damn the Bruce/Oakeshott poverty movement to shit that discussion right down.

*shut obvs, LOL

For once a front page piece in The Guardian that acknowledges the realities of the situation:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/corbyn-could-face-string-of-resignations-if-he-backs-peoples-vote

does this mean anything?

― resident hack (Simon H.), Thursday, 17 January 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Not really. There is a chance (as we talked about, a small one) of a GE happening at some point this year. Incidentally the bits I saw around Amber Rudd's smallest concessions on the benefits side of things is the only pointer of someone in government accepting we could be facing one.

Yeah but on Tuesday DWP snuck out some horrible grab from pensioners with younger partners so swings and roundabouts...

I’d be really interested in hearing diane abbott’s private thoughts on a second referendum- I know she is supposed to be privately more supportive than some in the leader’s office. I’d like to understand her rationale

Behind paywall but you get the gist:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-dup-edges-towards-customs-union-5vkfkgfhm DUP edges towards customs union

Behind paywall but you get the gist:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-dup-edges-towards-customs-union-5vkfkgfhm🕸 DUP edges towards customs union

Personally dread the prospect of a second referendum, but found this convincing https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/ten-reasons-i-came-round-to-peoples-vote

My guess is that this is not a shift as much as the media remembering that the DUP is not the Conservative party and doesn't share their interests - 'separates NI from GB' was always going to be the clause in any agreement that they cared the most about.

good bit in stephen bush’s morning call this am about how the ~optics~ of labour’s ‘intransigence’ could be pretty toxic

can’t find it online to C&P

I’d be really interested in hearing diane abbott’s private thoughts on a second referendum- I know she is supposed to be privately more supportive than some in the leader’s office. I’d like to understand her rationale

are Corbyn and McD not in favour of immigration?

One interesting bit on that Guardian report is how little private thoughts matter. Many of the 71 MPs that were backing people's vote at the photo op are in leave constituencies and would be facing challenges were a leader to back it. Corbyn's public position allows them to indulge and have it both ways.

I have intermittently thought that a "People's Vote" (ugh) is the only way out of this impasse other than crashing out, or possibly still a slim chance of accepting May's deal that nobody wants anyway which doesn't solve much in the long-term as 1. it's only a withdrawal agreement, future status still to be argued over; 2. nobody wants it so everyone keeps on bickering and shouting "betrayal"

however, not only am I scared of the result being much the same, or even if for Remain v unlikely to have a convincing margin of victory (funny how that isn't important now but will be if the tables turn), and the debate being just as dishonest and rancorous, but also setting the question seems impossible

not just in terms of getting Parliament to agree on it, but also fundamentally: if you don't put "No Deal" on the ballot Leavers claim it's rigged because that's now apparently the One True Leave (and, as noted, nobody likes May's deal), but what the hell kind of govt would put to the public a ticky box which is a very euphemistic code for "food shortages, economic chaos, citizens likely to die, and we unilaterally renege on two international agreements"?

(by which I mean GFA and the outstanding payments to the EU which we already agreed to - though I gather there is some debate about whether we'd actually be breaking the GFA or just showing enormous bad faith in a letter-of-the-law kind of way, which I'm sure everyone will read up on in detail before voting, like what I have not done before posting this waffle)

We are rapidly approaching the end of "have it both ways" as a strategy.

I have yet to meet or hear from a single black person who is pro-Brexit*, they know full well what this shit is enabling. And Abbott represents one of the most Remain constituencies in the country.

*There could be regional variations here admittedly but I doubt it. Difficult to tell and no one in the media ever bothers to ask.

are Corbyn and McD not in favour of immigration?
Their views are more in line with those of unions, which is that employers exploiting foreign labour threaten working conditions here. It’s opposing the employers who exploit, but it’s less open than you’d think. However the rhetoric is pretty different for the most part and they’re still significantly to the left of much of the PLP.

Looking at his voting record, he opposes stricter asylum laws and things that make the lives of immigrants and refugees more difficult.

xxp other than the few reported cases of ppl who voted brexit on the understanding that leaving the EU wld make it easier for ppl to immigrate from commonwealth countries I haven't either, it's p striking

xxp other than the few reported cases of ppl who voted brexit on the understanding that leaving the EU wld make it easier for ppl to immigrate from commonwealth countries I haven't either, it's p striking

I worked with a guy, from a Bangladeshi background, who voted Leave for that very reason - I'm not saying that happened a lot but it certainly happened, in the South Asian community.

Their views are more in line with those of unions, which is that employers exploiting foreign labour threaten working conditions here. It’s opposing the employers who exploit, but it’s less open than you’d think.

In what sense is that less open? I know it has been read different ways - but Corbyn/McD insisting on worker's rights (which they also emphasize in their "negotiate a better Brexit" position) seems reasonable to me?

xp knowing plenty of Chinese people in the UK, many are quietly anti-immigrant, generally on a "I came to this place because I love British culture and I don't like it being changed" basis, which I find v. frustrating to argue with.

Well, the ability for it it to be seen as pandering to anti-immigration types with some of the language. I think the labour position is much better, but my feeling is that they should be doing more to move the Overton window.

Yeah remember now the language at the time was ambiguous..

They might have judged that:
-the upsides of leaving outweigh the downsides of staying/No Deal disruption
-it’s only when #nodealisbetter than a bad deal” is believed by the EU that we’ll maximise our chance of a deal
-not honouring the result of the referendum would be appalling https://t.co/hjZuoA81Vz

— Penny Mordaunt MP (@PennyMordaunt) January 18, 2019

I want to hear more about what these Chinese immigrants love so much abt british culture

.@Nigel_Farage said on Sky News with @adamboultonSKY that he will start a new party if we have to fight European elections.

He KNOWS this will split the pro-Brexit vote. The question is this: who is Nigel Farage working for? pic.twitter.com/KQQz9SNPE7

— UKIP (@UKIP) January 18, 2019

Also loled at this.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there's a certain anti-globalist school of thought on the left according to which late capitalism has impelled a race to the bottom that ultimately benefits no one other than the international, eminently mobile (I'm tempted to say migratory) ruling class: neither the workers in developing countries who slave away for a pittance nor those in developed countries who are now unemployed. Hence there's a tendency – especially in recent years, perhaps in response to the far right's gains – to espouse a localized, borderline nationalist discourse as a corrective to these ills, even on the left.

i chime with APS's rumination on things except that i think its p vital that "total, hard, brexit" be on the poll so that yknow ppl can actually vote for that if they want, and when they don't and its clear that a muddled brexit or no clear outcome is the actual result then the faceless bureaucrats actually be let get on with it

think may's nodding-dog act to the will of the people as if anyone voted for hard brexit is shithousery of the highest and she's almost completely getting away with it

100% agree re May escaping scrutiny but putting no deal on a bill is asking a country to vote for food and medicine shortages...

let them

here's the ballot imo

- Remain

- Leave Norway

- Leave No Customs Union

- Leave Hard

all three Leaves added together and then if they exceed Remain, the largest share chosen as strategy

you'd think this makes Hard Brexit likelier and it does, but imo it actually makes Remain a total shoo-in

darragh OTM

I worked with a guy, from a Bangladeshi background, who voted Leave for that very reason - I'm not saying that happened a lot but it certainly happened, in the South Asian community.

There were news stories covering similar ground a couple of weeks ago.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-curry-industry-brexit-staff-shortages-bangladesh-catering-association-a8677911.html

He added that in the run up to the Brexit referendum the BCA met with senior politicians who they claim gave assurances that the immigration rules would be changed if they supported Brexit.

“We supported Brexit because we were promised we would be allowed to bring our skilled workers from the subcontinent,” Mr Junue said.

“Prior to the referendum we were promised by Boris Johnson, Priti Patel and Michael Gove that if we came out of Europe that it is likely they will be open for people from the sub-continent to come.”

Yeah it's becoming increasingly obvious that enough Leavers don't just want to leave, they want a particular flavour of Leave and there isn't anything approaching consensus on what that is. Remaining in the EU is more popular than any of the other options.

let’s let people vote for insulin shortages and the deaths of their colleagues

Remain is more popular but it isn't distributed by constituency well enough.

I think "having it both ways" is still the strategy - if by that the position at a GE (if it happens later this year) would be for Lab to say we can "negotiate a better Brexit" with an all options on the table were this to go wrong, to dangle a carrot at the PV crowd.

That and of course hoping some of the Tory vote collapses. Difficult to see getting to a GE atm anyway.

ogmor at 11:37 18 Jan 19
I want to hear more about what these Chinese immigrants love so much abt british culture

No Norway bullshit, no People's Vote.

Ultimately were Labour to get to power the coalition that got them there would need to be betrayed. Maybe a failed/fake negotiation with the EU leading to a rescind of Art50 with a programme to deliver more of a socialist policy that could cover a lot of the grievances that lead to many of the Lab constituencies voting leave in the first place.

let’s let people vote for insulin shortages and the deaths of their colleagues

― ||||||||, Friday, 18 January 2019 12:06 (seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

you can let it continue to be threatened with no mandate or risk an actual but very unlikely mandate

otherwise youre just keeping it on the agenda

There are worlds between people who describe themselves as ‘anti-globalisation’ and those who say they’re ‘anti-globalist’.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there's a certain anti-globalist school of thought on the left according to which late capitalism has impelled a race to the bottom that ultimately benefits no one other than the international, eminently mobile (I'm tempted to say migratory) ruling class: neither the workers in developing countries who slave away for a pittance nor those in developed countries who are now unemployed. Hence there's a tendency – especially in recent years, perhaps in response to the far right's gains – to espouse a localized, borderline nationalist discourse as a corrective to these ills, even on the left.

― pomenitul, Friday, 18 January 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yes but as you say its one school of thought.

think may's nodding-dog act to the will of the people as if anyone voted for hard brexit is shithousery of the highest and she's almost completely getting away with it

this is v OTM and nicely put - and I do take your point that we're currently perilously close to getting it with no mandate so why not risk seeing what the actual mandate is for

Yeah it's becoming increasingly obvious that enough Leavers don't just want to leave, they want a particular flavour of Leave and there isn't anything approaching consensus on what that is. Remaining in the EU is more popular than any of the other options.

the lack of consensus is OTM too but I don't feel comfortable banking on the ultimate conclusion in a hypothetical near-future 2-way or even 3/4-way ref, let alone with imago's counting method. I am v much in a bubble so perhaps I have a distorted view but I am disturbed by the number of tweets, comments, voxpops etc from people now certain they did indeed quite deliberately vote for hard brexit and so did everyone else

Seems like some widespread worldview retconning (yes, smug snobby elitist Remoaning, sorry) but if these comments are even 20% real then I'm not sure how anyone has got so many self-proclaimed no-nonsense cynics to go along with such flagrant goalpost-moving tbh

This is what someone (aged about 60) on the Charlton forum just posted, verbatim:

By way of a contrast. Last evening I had what was at times a rather heated discussion with three extended family members, all of whom voted and are still fully behind a Brexit including no deal. As you can imagine from my views on this thread I vehemently argued the opposite stance. Without going into the minutiae of our discussion which encompassed every aspect of Brexit and it’s consequences. We finally ended up at a no deal Brexit and why pretty much everyone agreed that it would be wholly damaging. You want to know what they all unanimously agreed ? They thought that 90% of any of the pain and difficulties this country experienced after a no deal Brexit would be because the EU and particularly the French (at the ports) would make damned sure that it would be as problematic as possible. There view was that all the problems with things like documentation, existing agreements, membership of EU wide organisations could be just rolled over if the EU wanted to. They (the EU) just want to be difficult. The Irish border question was a complete numbfuck. It’s our border and we should be able to do whatever we like with it. All the reasons above were cause enough for us (the UK) to tell the EU that we are out on 29th and just get on with it. If they want to play hard ball then so can we and we’re able to have the empire Commonwealth that will trade with us.

Now you might say that these views were extreme and the view holders were pretty stoopid. I couldn’t possibly comment but my point here is that these views are still out there and in numbers that are scary. Each of my last nights opponents were quoting or saying their friends were of similar in view. Now it might not now be 52% that hold views of a similar flavour but I’m thinking that it’s still upwards on 45%.

The country is really split and broken. I have no idea where we go from here or how we get there. There are troubled times ahead, of that I’m sure.

This goes deep into the psyche of an entire generation tbh - a sort of aggressive infantilism. I wonder what caused it. I wonder if it's curable

this goes back to the point about cameron fleeing the scene ASAP after the vote - he had the opportunity to put his foot on the ball, and frame what people voted for ie what brexit meant. instead because he was a chancer of the first order he abdicated responsibility and a whole host of other (including harder) brexits started competing in the vacuum. no deal has the virtue of perceived simplicity/clarity at least

Going back to 'Norway plus' for a second, I definitely got a kick out of Norwegian MP Heidi Nordby Lunde's commentary from last month:

Really, the Norwegian option is not an option. We have been telling you this for one and a half years since the referendum and how this works, so I am surprised that after all these years it is still part of the grown-up debate in the UK. You just expect us to give you an invitation rather than consider whether Norway would want to give you such an invitation. It might be in your interest to use our agreement, but it would not be in our interest.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

Yeah, I chuckle every time seeing 'Norway' still being mentioned after that tbh. The gall etc

xxp dunno if Cameron sticking around would have helped, he would surely have been ousted if he hadn't walked. Chances of that stupid cunt guiding the country safely through this mess, lol.

Probably more damaging was decision of Labour mps to immediately plunge party into civil war and completely abdicate the field.

why would Norway need to give permission for the eu and the UK to make a similar deal