US Politics January 2019: we are #ready to drop something much, much bigger

That too. But think about all the nuts he could have nominated for the SC (even Bush chose Harriet Miers). Yet Trump picked unquestionably qualified candidates who he knew would get through, people with cred, however we might not like them.

Yeah but its a bad gamble if he wants to stop mueller

He can’t keep his priorities straight

Trump is just working straight off the Federalist Society's list of preferred judicial nominees and they do all his homework for him.

Yet Trump picked unquestionably qualified candidates

if by "Trump" you mean "The Federalist Society", then yes

Yeah but thats dumb if he wants to stay out of jail

xpost Yeah, absolutely. But he "picked" them, when he could have picked his sister or some former pro wrestler or something. He was given a list and he picked one of them, a rare instance of deferring to the expertise of someone else over his "gut." Same with these AGs. He had a list, he had to find someone on it who would say yes, he got Barr (who had already said no to him about something before, so no doubt was low on the list!). And because he's stupid he probably though, as much as he thinks about anything: "this guy is on the approved list and he'll easily be confirmed, he's even been AG before. That's a win for me, no doubt about it!"

Strongly suspect he was most persuaded by Barr's blanket-pardon advocacy in his last go-around. There are gonna be convictions.

Iirc the AG has no say in pardons, right? Pres can pardon whoever he wants, as many as he want. Not like Trump needs an AG's OK.

yes but the AG can wag his finger disapprovingly

A federal court on Thursday blocked a major aspect of last year’s lame duck power grab by Republicans in Wisconsin. U.S. District Judge James D. Peterson restored early voting and other rights relevant to the franchise which were previously curtailed by GOP state legislators and then-outgoing now-former governor Scott Walker in December 2018.

“This is not a close question,” Judge Peterson notes, “the…challenged provisions are clearly inconsistent with” previous orders handed down by the court.

nice

Wheeler has been bumping this:

https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/12/20/emmet-flood-steps-in-it-again-william-barrs-memo-makes-compelling-case-that-trump-must-be-impeached/

Well well well

🚨 President Trump directed Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Moscow, according to two federal law enforcement officials https://t.co/1i9Jv5R9lC via @JasonLeopold & @a_cormier_

— Jon Passantino (@passantino) January 18, 2019

cool throw it on the crime pile

Ah, no, this is significantly next level.

Trump: Congress? Just give their noses a good twist and laugh at them. That's all they deserve.

Republicans in Congress: Thank you, sir, may we have another?

xp I'll believe that when I see actual repercussions

This really is key

Wow: "The special counsel’s office learned about Trump’s directive for Cohen to lie to Congress through interviews with multiple witnesses from the Trump Organization and internal company emails, text messages, and a cache of other documents." https://t.co/Z775Gs98S3 pic.twitter.com/sYiYNT5Jxz

— Brad Heath (@bradheath) January 18, 2019

Combine that with the shutdown self-immolation, I suspect things are about to get dicey.

The biggest wild card in the political calculus here is that a third of the nation's voters are so in love with Trump that procedural crimes like obstruction of justice or suborning perjury won't even register with them as crimes, and their anger over a successful impeachment could be explosive for a long time to come. This means Congress will feel like they need massive political cover to move ahead with removing Trump for 'high crimes and misdemeanors', which he has surely committed by any objective standard.

tomorrow we will see nearly every Congressional Republican argue that all this had to do with Trump's personal business dealings and therefore had nothing to do with the campaign and that Mueller is overreaching, etc etc

or: Cohen didn't have to take Trump's direction if he knew it was illegal. or: lying to Congress isn't a crime. or: if Trump does it, it's not illegal. take your pick!!

Essentially it means arguing points that leaves them up a creek. Predicting what follows is a fool’s game but the room to maneuver just got more limited.

Agree w Ned that this matters more in the context of shutdown clusterfuck and congressional (R) growing impatience with his petulance

so many relevant posts

William Barr said the president coaching a witness to give false testimony or to conceal evidence would be obstruction of justice.

According to @BuzzFeedNews, Trump directed Cohen to give false testimony to Congress about the Trump Tower Moscow project: https://t.co/BQcHjYyasM pic.twitter.com/iF7anKgREd

— Brian Tashman (@briantashman) January 18, 2019

This is the crux:

The special counsel’s office learned about Trump’s directive for Cohen to lie to Congress through interviews with multiple witnesses from the Trump Organization and internal company emails, text messages, and a cache of other documents. Cohen then acknowledged those instructions during his interviews with that office.

That Mueller knew *first.* Then asked Cohen.

I know better to expect it but would not be surprised if in light of this and shutdown hijinks some institutionalist, a Ben Sasse or even Lindsey Graham just throws up his hands, in caucus, and says ok I'm out

But probably not!

xp - William Barr is right about obstruction of justice, but even if he is confirmed as AG, he has no power in the matter of impeachment. Only Congress does. That stated position does realistically require him to share that information with Congress, if the final Mueller report incorporates it.

lol it ain't gonna be Lindsey Graham

Not publicly, no.

think the line you're gonna see a lot tomorrow is "why would you trust a rat like Cohen" and then "how can you trust the PARTISAN FBI!" and "STROZK! PAGE!!! STRSOK!! PAAAAAGE!!!!"

Next idle thought, will Trump suddenly withdraw Barr's nomination before he is confirmed?

If Trump were to leave office, does the special counsel investigation continue? Yes, right?

Oh, I suspect some kind of quiet deep-sixing of any pending indictments might be considered politically expedient by leaders of both parties in exchange for a quick exit. Those kinds of hasty midnight burials statesmanlike concessions are SOP in DC.

I'm not sure they can without making a stink? SC is pretty independent.

There was plenty of stink when Ford pardoned Nixon and when Reagan pardoned a bunch of Iran-Contra conspirators, but the fix was in and the stink blew over.

it was bush who pardoned those six people, and he did it after he'd lost re-election. wouldn't shock me if we see some fun pardons when trump is serving his last days

Well, Ford did lose reelection.

not exactly the hague is it

Even if Mueller wrapped up, there will be a cottage industry of investigators, writers and filmmakers pursuing every Trump thread for years.

some of y'all need to reign your expectations WAY the fuck in w/r/t the consequences a rich white man and US president will ever realistically face, there's more at stake than just the reputation of one asshole, after all

Oh cool, this pendulum again.

GOP is going all in on “all the evidence is fake news or heresay” tomorrow

huh i will need to re read the essay- listening to his appearance, i understood the inquiry and barr both to be focusing not on congress’s impeachment authority/obligation, but on the executive branch’s (agency or individual) investigative independence from the president, and its ability to act in any ways at all in tension with the explicit or implicit instruction of potus. to which he seemed to say, to me, only if the head of the jd says there’s a fundamental failure to fulfill duties in support and defense of const or something.

Prediction markets of Trump impeachment by the end of 2019 increased by five percentage points over the past hour pic.twitter.com/YOyMniZQnR

— Hal Singer (@HalSinger) January 18, 2019

That powder’s gonna stay dry until Mueller closes the books

I think there’s something else at work here — it’s been a month of slow drip interesting revelations now leading up to this. The phrasing of the story leads me to two idle guesses:

1) Cohen *could* be buying himself a little insurance against Trump, since the phrasing of the story — Mueller et al had the evidence and then Cohen had to confirm it — is a signal that it doesn’t all rest with him. That odd little story the other day about Cohen having qualms due to Trump’s increasingly bitter attacks on him/his family is potentially suggestive.

2) That said, more likely — in context with earlier leaks this month — is a probably inchoate but determined coterie essentially boxing up Barr or Trump’s implied hopes for him. The more stuff comes out before his confirmation, the more he has to deal with in public — not least due to the House; Schiff has already stated he will investigate further about this report.

Shutdown, Day 27:
State Dept says it can pay workers. For 2 weeks.
Trump cancels Pelosi's trip to Aghanistan.
Trump cancels Davos trip.
Prospect of long-term shutdown sinks in.
No end in sight.
No pretense of negotiation.
https://t.co/ghodzSA1zE

— Damian Paletta (@damianpaletta) January 17, 2019

I want to vomit.