"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

mmmmm unicorny cakey goodness

Barnier: "Unanimously the European Council have always said that if the UK chooses to shift its red lines in the future ... and to go beyond a simple free trade agreement, then the EU will be immediately ready to … give a favourable response."

— Jon Stone (@joncstone) January 16, 2019

No rush.

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell says Labour will make decision on which option it will back - including second referendum- in “next few weeks”. A shadow cab minister told me last night: “Jeremy is working this out for himself. He won’t be bullied by the MPs”.

— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) January 16, 2019

"Jeremy is working this out for himself."

FTPA isn't the primary problem here tho- if tories and dup mps all vote for the govt, a VONC can't pass, regardless of FTPA. In fact, FTPA makes no confidence vote slightly more possible, as there is the (small) possibility of reconstituting a new govt still led by tories within two weeks, and avoiding an election.

Jeremy spoke in, claa-aahaaas, todaaaaaaay

is ilx against fixed term parliaments?

I am

they've turned out to be a total pain, so yes. Fixed terms make sense for Presidential systems or ones with clear separation of powers, not so much for archaic non-codified boondoggles such as the "Mother of Parliaments"

Whole point of FTPA was, in words of Clegg "by setting the date that parliament will dissolve, our prime minister is giving up the right to pick and choose the date of the next general election—that's a true first in British politics." - but we saw in 2017 that the PM can still pick the date of the election because if the opposition don't vote for it then they look like they're scared.

Thinking is that pre-FTPA after a loss like last night it would have been treated *as* a no-conf, the entire government would have been expected to resign and the leader of the opposition to become PM of a minority admin (which would call an election). At least that’s what happened in precedent.

That would ofc have changed the numbers last night too though — part of the “biggest defeat ever” clearly comes from Tory MPs being free to vote against the deal without also bringing down the government.

The sheer gall and entitlement of this minority government, acting like they were appointed by god and deserve to reign forever,

Ein VONC, Ein Reich...

So Barnier has said:

*The WA needs to be ratified
*Including the backstop
*Further agreements are possible if red lines shihft
*So presumably the backstop can be defused if the UK stays in the customs union / single market?

(He was speaking in a debate, as Mark's pointed out we shouldn't assume that everything the EU figures say is from the godhead just because they can put their trousers on the right way round)

Anyone else had this piece of crap through their door this morning?

What is this nonsense, Wetherspoons? I never visit your crap pubs do please don't bring your stupid free magazine to my house pic.twitter.com/LLC4a3e7UC

— David Njoku (@davidnjoku) January 14, 2019

(lol wins made the lobby joke i was congratulating myself for not making)

(and he is right to, mistakes were made)

Jesus. It’s as if we are reverting to the days of the pamphlet wars. With poorer illustrations xp

Was in a Wetherspoons last night tbh :(

my friend was horrified to receive that. I wonder why they're distributing it where they are

May won't convert 116 MPs & the EU won't budge. She'll survive the VONC & there's no majority for a 2nd ref or Norway. What are her options?

1. Adopt Labour's CU plan
2. Embrace no-deal
3. A snap GE

1 & 2 would be admissions of failure. 3 offers her a chance of redemption.

— David Timoney (@fromarsetoelbow) January 15, 2019

[banging on clipboard] snap snap SNAP SNAP... !

The other day, I was four blocks from my front door and needed a lav just a bit too urgently to make it home. Until that emergency, I classed myself as someone who wouldn’t even take a crap in a Wetherspoons.

The Wetherspoons prick is off his fucking chump tbh

(lol wins made the lobby joke i was congratulating myself for not making)

On Tuesday night Johnson was joined by other prominent Brexiter MPs, including John Redwood and Bill Cash, at a champagne celebration party at Rees-Mogg’s house.

Sir John Redwood and Sir Bill Cash, of course.

i'd like to thank ilx for forever cementing a mental connection between this historic moment in uk politics and mr blobby

VONC me blobby

10 years ago we had John Redwood, Bill Cash, Steve Food, Bob Channel Tunnel...

(the better part of the joke was nicked from Marie Le Conte)

I get that you're all cheering over May's well-deserved drubbing, but the schadenfreude is eerily reminiscent of its US variant, i.e. 'pwning the libs'. It can't be an endgame in and of itself, can it? No one seems to have the slightest clue as to what needs to be done about this cloacal mess (I don't either, of course, I'm just a bemused outsider).

We are more comfortable by and large with the prospect that all is fucked, only sacrifices to the great god Blobby can get us out of this.

i dunno if ilx has even polled the likely outcomes

The difference is the power balance. This is drinking Trump tears while waiting for his administration to collapse.

I get that you're all cheering over May's well-deserved drubbing, but the schadenfreude is eerily reminiscent of its US variant, i.e. 'pwning the libs'. It can't be an endgame in and of itself, can it? No one seems to have the slightest clue as to what needs to be done about this cloacal mess (I don't either, of course, I'm just a bemused outsider).

A bemused outsider who doesn't understand the true evil that is the Tory Party.

The similarity of Donald Tusk and Donald Trump, nominatively and pachydermically, is unnerving. I'm sure the similarity ends there, though. Oh yes, the grabbing.

as i don’t like a second referendum, my view is probably aligned most with current labour position of accept and ameliorate via common market participation. as someone pointed out on twitter yesterday this is a pragmatic, even centrist stance - it’s the supposed centrists who are proposing relitigating plebiscites, which were toxic the first time round. there’s also no indication there’s anything like enough parliamentary or party voter support for a 2nd ref.

the path to success for that is more complicated because the path to success of anything bar no deal (which doesn’t require active support) doesn’t have the numbers.

it would either require TM to reach out and offer this - she’s ruled that out - or a vote of no confidence and a GE based upon imminent and likely no deal. that as ever relies on tories not propping up a government that isn’t capable of delivering than a default no deal.

and that doesn’t necessarily solve anything of course as Labour, even if they won, would require the numbers able to pass it through parliament.

The similarity of Donald Tusk and Donald Trump, nominatively and pachydermically, is unnerving. I'm sure the similarity ends there, though. Oh yes, the grabbing.

Juncker is the grabber tbf.

"only sacrifices to the great god Blobby can get us out of this"

If that shit worked I'm sure Noel would have found enough virgin's blood to reduce lloyds bank to ashes.

I’ve been texting back and forth with my friend who literally grew up next door to David Peace, and he says all the northern working class people he grew up with outside Wakefield who voted Leave weren’t bothered one way or another about the EU but they were all about giving Cameron a bloody nose. They might well vote to stay in a second vote. The embarrass Cameron vote is strong in other places, too - even with the sort of Tory who thinks the headbangers are borderline fash.

I actually though the number of Con MPs like Heidi Allen tweeting "shocked" meant there were a large number of protest votes without thinking about the consequences last night too that might not be repeated on Monday with little to no pressure.

More outlander naïveté: why did the Tories win the 2017 snap election?

did they now

Shocked about what?

Like, if you placed a bet yesterday, the odds weren't generous at Ladbrokes.. (prob)

less facetiously: because they were the party of brexit, and because they still hadn't entirely shed david cameron's veneer of centrist common sense

xxxxp

where Peace grew up is an odd bit of W Yorkshire. I've rewired loads of its council estates and they are practically middle class in comparison to places like Chickenley which is a only few miles away but a completely different world.

lab collapse in scotland 2015 onwards is another part of the reason, pom

pls the tories we’re fighting on a significantly beneficial electoral map post-2015 disaster

plus*

all these "real leadership" Sturgeon fans seem to conveniently forget her 2nd indy reffing tactics are what handed SNP seats to the Tories.

Would it have helped Labour if the SNP had kept those seats? As Labour weren’t looking like winning them and had ruled out working with the SNP.