"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

Probably the worst thing that could happen to a Corbyn government would be to squeak through in an undecisive snap election and have to deliver their own version of Brexit. It would be under attack from all angles very quickly and would take up most of their resources and prevent them from being able to implement a lot of their programme. Assuming they could get it through whatever Parliament we end up with, which is doubtful unless they win a sizeable majority and that seems unlikely.

well the reason would be suffering the largest ever defeat in democratic parliamentary history, on the central project of her government for the last two and a half years

but immediately followed by winning a vote of no-confidence? "i have been delivered a new mandate to continue"

May winning might be the best outcome for tories and labour alike?

the uh jonathan freedland pièce on the vote last night is uh good. if there is to be a referendum II - and we want continuity_remain to win - then it has be done in a context where people are not feeling ground down by years and years of austerity and secular stagnation

don’t understand how there can be a big push for it after the VONC loses. what would the question even be now? can’t be may’s deal v remain, can’t be remain vs no deal

VONC me daddy

Should have been the thread title.

May winning might be the best outcome for tories and labour alike?

How so?

Btw just because the Tories can’t 1922 May again until December doesn’t mean they can’t push her out other ways. You think she’s not getting furious frontbenchers on her case and pressure from the men in grey suits?

If her cabinet quit and no-one would take those jobs? But I don't think this is the way of the Tory.

she’s presumably the band aid that is holding back a lot of very unsightly demon spirits

If VONC till you honk is really the Lab strategy (as BazGardz intimated last night) then why would anybody think Corbz' strategy will be any different to the present (i.e. say all options are still on the table and not commit to one). Much like everyone else in parliament, until theit preferred strategy is completely ruled out (number of those to date <1) they'll not change horses.

May will undoubtedly just shake her head and explain that this makes the job all the harder, not angry but quite disappointed.

called this btw

6 hours for no confidence debate today!

Another big day in Parliament today with a full day’s debate, expected to start around 1pm on the #NoConfidenceVote tabled by @jeremycorbyn following the historic, record defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Vote at 7pm. pic.twitter.com/hgPcUoDVBE

— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) January 16, 2019

I’m kind of meh over the May keeping the worse elements out - she’s governed as though she still has a majority, shut out remainers and moderates, had that awful press conference where she was visibly angry cos Tusk mocked her on Instagram...difficult to see how even one of the worse elements would act differently.

Leadsom on Today is the first time No Deal has seemed actually possible. They talk as if in denial about the scale of last night: won’t talk to JC, all red lines as red as ever, the May deal still the focus and essentially only tweaks accepted.

So now this plan to take control away from the govt and into the hands of a xbench committee seems like the best hope for a workable way forward. Will that pass muster? Seems it might.

the more they talk like that, the likelier it is tory remainers will peel off behind a VONC. you’d think they wouldn’t be amplifying those messages on the day of

Having slept on it, and unlikely as it sounds, Andrea Leadsom might actually have been right last night and the direction the EU take today and going forward might determine how this plays out.

EU play hardball: realisation the structure and processes mean you can't really negotiate in a meaningful way so vote coalesces around No Deal (everyone who wants Brexit) and Revoke (everyone who doesn't, almost all floaters). Revoke wins, issue continues like a festering sore for decades to come.

EU open renegotiation: You get a Unicorn! You get a Unicorn! Everyone gets Unicorns! No move to a cross platform answer. VONC till you honk. A50 extended till July then have to decide to take up seats which EU end up staying can only be done if revoke. 2nd ref rushed through with unclear choice and No Deal happens by default because nobody wants to own a compromise solution. Issue continues like a festering sore for decades to come.

Tory remainers will um and er and wring their hands and furrow their brows and vote with the government.

even on 28/03/2019 ?

The sheer gall and entitlement of this minority government, acting like they were appointed by god and deserve to reign forever, it's hard not to wish they lose the vonc and election just to watch them tear each-other apart, but unfortunately I have to hope they win today and have to have their face rubbed in the mess they've made.

It's pretty incredible that she postponed the vote to lessen the blow, had no idea how to do so, went to the EU with no strategy hoping to be bailed out, then suffered the worst loss in history. A complete humiliation, and a waste of time when there really isn't much time to waste. She should obviously resign. But she won't.

Someone on twitter pointed out how Cameron had fucked the country not only with the referendum but also the fixed term parliaments act.

Lammy on Today this morning - 100 or so Lab MPs writing to Corbz today to tell him to get behind PV because he's "not being honest" with the public about what the different options mean. Also said he can't get behind Norway because it's sterile ruletaking which you have to pay for.

itll be push out a50 until forever until a clear referendum win is likely for remain

i mean this seems pretty obv from this end

also fucked it by fleeing the field the day after the vote so instead of framing brexit as something softer, a variety of harsher competing brexits rushed into the vacuum

Someone on twitter pointed out how Cameron had fucked the country not only with the referendum but also the fixed term parliaments act.

FTPA was Clegg.

Which the Tories supported?

Was a classic example of "didn't think this through" from Clegg though.

mmmmm unicorny cakey goodness

Barnier: "Unanimously the European Council have always said that if the UK chooses to shift its red lines in the future ... and to go beyond a simple free trade agreement, then the EU will be immediately ready to … give a favourable response."

— Jon Stone (@joncstone) January 16, 2019

No rush.

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell says Labour will make decision on which option it will back - including second referendum- in “next few weeks”. A shadow cab minister told me last night: “Jeremy is working this out for himself. He won’t be bullied by the MPs”.

— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) January 16, 2019

"Jeremy is working this out for himself."

FTPA isn't the primary problem here tho- if tories and dup mps all vote for the govt, a VONC can't pass, regardless of FTPA. In fact, FTPA makes no confidence vote slightly more possible, as there is the (small) possibility of reconstituting a new govt still led by tories within two weeks, and avoiding an election.

Jeremy spoke in, claa-aahaaas, todaaaaaaay

is ilx against fixed term parliaments?

I am

they've turned out to be a total pain, so yes. Fixed terms make sense for Presidential systems or ones with clear separation of powers, not so much for archaic non-codified boondoggles such as the "Mother of Parliaments"

Whole point of FTPA was, in words of Clegg "by setting the date that parliament will dissolve, our prime minister is giving up the right to pick and choose the date of the next general election—that's a true first in British politics." - but we saw in 2017 that the PM can still pick the date of the election because if the opposition don't vote for it then they look like they're scared.

Thinking is that pre-FTPA after a loss like last night it would have been treated *as* a no-conf, the entire government would have been expected to resign and the leader of the opposition to become PM of a minority admin (which would call an election). At least that’s what happened in precedent.

That would ofc have changed the numbers last night too though — part of the “biggest defeat ever” clearly comes from Tory MPs being free to vote against the deal without also bringing down the government.

The sheer gall and entitlement of this minority government, acting like they were appointed by god and deserve to reign forever,

Ein VONC, Ein Reich...

So Barnier has said:

*The WA needs to be ratified
*Including the backstop
*Further agreements are possible if red lines shihft
*So presumably the backstop can be defused if the UK stays in the customs union / single market?

(He was speaking in a debate, as Mark's pointed out we shouldn't assume that everything the EU figures say is from the godhead just because they can put their trousers on the right way round)

Anyone else had this piece of crap through their door this morning?

What is this nonsense, Wetherspoons? I never visit your crap pubs do please don't bring your stupid free magazine to my house pic.twitter.com/LLC4a3e7UC

— David Njoku (@davidnjoku) January 14, 2019

(lol wins made the lobby joke i was congratulating myself for not making)

(and he is right to, mistakes were made)

Jesus. It’s as if we are reverting to the days of the pamphlet wars. With poorer illustrations xp

Was in a Wetherspoons last night tbh :(

my friend was horrified to receive that. I wonder why they're distributing it where they are

May won't convert 116 MPs & the EU won't budge. She'll survive the VONC & there's no majority for a 2nd ref or Norway. What are her options?

1. Adopt Labour's CU plan
2. Embrace no-deal
3. A snap GE

1 & 2 would be admissions of failure. 3 offers her a chance of redemption.

— David Timoney (@fromarsetoelbow) January 15, 2019

[banging on clipboard] snap snap SNAP SNAP... !

The other day, I was four blocks from my front door and needed a lav just a bit too urgently to make it home. Until that emergency, I classed myself as someone who wouldn’t even take a crap in a Wetherspoons.

The Wetherspoons prick is off his fucking chump tbh

(lol wins made the lobby joke i was congratulating myself for not making)

On Tuesday night Johnson was joined by other prominent Brexiter MPs, including John Redwood and Bill Cash, at a champagne celebration party at Rees-Mogg’s house.

Sir John Redwood and Sir Bill Cash, of course.

i'd like to thank ilx for forever cementing a mental connection between this historic moment in uk politics and mr blobby