"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

That one was done on the 5th which is now ancient history.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 5, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 38% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-)

via @Survation, 09 - 10 Jan 2019
Chgs. w/ Nov 2018

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 11, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 36% (-1)
LAB: 36% (-2)
LDEM: 12% (-)
UKIP: 6% (+2)
GRN: 5% (+1)

via @BMGResearch, 08 - 11 Jan

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 12, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 38% (-)
CON: 35% (-3)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 6% (+1)
Grn: 4% (-1)

via @KantarPublic, 10 - 14 Jan
Chgs. w/ Dec

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 15, 2019

These are all from this week. But generally not worth worrying about polls too much atm.

so hold on a sec, did the EU rule out at the beginning of all this the possibility of negotiating an agreement that when ratified would trigger article 50?

It wasn’t the EU’s decision to trigger it, that was entirely on the UK.

May did not have to trigger Article 50 at any point. They could have taken ten years to devise a plan for exit. She chose to trigger it at the earliest possible moment, with no planning or consultation.

The first example of the bold and decisive leadership for which she is so widely acclaimed.

I don't think you can flip 230 with Customs Union either.

i think the "lab 6% behind" was a badly formed PV-sponsored push poll (i def saw it being roasted by ppl who understand polls, which i mostly do not)

tory vote is not going to hold up if may takes the party into an election

re: the polls - YouGov are an outlier. They consistently have figures which are higher for the Tories and lower for Labour than the other polling companies. It doesn't mean they aren't right, but they are the only ones saying that. Generally the polls show little difference between the two and neither would win a majority as things stand, though given how much things swung during the last general election campaign, just about anything could happen.

i mean if may proposed a customs union to get lab on board to pass *something* (seems unlikely but if) then lab cd probably right then peel the ERG away from supporting her in their running vonc project

The Tory vote is highly dependent on keeping the UKIP voters from 2015 onside - that’s why they have such a high floor.

Οὖτις at 11:19 15 Jan 19
who are all these tories you guys have over there, I don't think I've ever even met one

Barnsley voted overwhelmingly to leave the European Union - now many feel little progress has been made. pic.twitter.com/doopL9YA4H

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) October 20, 2017

vonc if yr horny

Changed my mind, unwelcome marriage proposal moved to plax

https://i.imgur.com/qO4KqZ4.jpg

Some pictures from the No lobby earlier:

Voting on the Prime Minister’s Deal has started. This is going to be a huge defeat for the government pic.twitter.com/Ho4t0tGlPn

— Bill Esterson (@Bill_Esterson) January 15, 2019

In the no voting lobby to vote against this deal. I’ve rarely seen it this full. May has united the Commons against her and her deal. Next step #NoConfidenceNow pic.twitter.com/uFPp9Vx2gu

— Lloyd Russell-Moyle (@lloyd_rm) January 15, 2019

The no lobby for the Government's motion... pic.twitter.com/dc6IMzGpHv

— Debbie Abrahams MP (@Debbie_abrahams) January 15, 2019

Wait you have separate lobbies?

"who are all these tories you guys have over there, I don't think I've ever even met one"

lolMericans!

they go into a yes room and a no room, it's very modern and legal

You think *that* is the weird thing about parliament?

vonc Tories? No secret.

xp they have to physically go through one of two passages and have their name taken by a teller to vote

And then kiss the Parliamentary hobgoblin

I honestly find that funnier than the mace

who are all these tories you guys have over there, I don't think I've ever even met one

where would you have, though

None of this to be read as acting superior mind you; I’m from the country where the entire legislative and executive branch have to agree on spending money every six weeks or everything shuts down

If only we could change the oath and thereby get SF to take their seats. That’s what this season needs

Never going to happen. What this season needs is a shock twist though...

yeah sf are never taking seats in the british parliament.

Most British thing ever:
Trying to get a celebration pop-up rave going after the #BrexitVote, next to the freaking Parliament. https://t.co/B7Qfn5aqzc

— Nils Herber (@NilsHerber) January 15, 2019

i shouldn't really mock their reasons for not doing so either tbh

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/06/sinn-fein-mp-british-parliament-irish-republicans-brexit

If only we could change the oath and thereby get SF to take their seats. That’s what this season needs

― stet, Tuesday, 15 January 2019 23:54 (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

oh havent our govt over here been quick to remind them of it too

I government shut down would probably be a blessing in these circs

actual lobbies are you fuckin kidding me how the fuck do you let these ppl run anything but gauntlets

parliament probably cranky from having to get up and mill around pointlessly for every vote

who are all these tories I don’t think I’ve met one

have you met one (1) democrat

I don’t see labour supporting a second ref until they do. it’ll be VONC me daddy from hereon out until the GE. political pressure on corbyn to support refII will be high tho

they will likely include one in their next GE manifesto - it would win votes def. likely strategy: pledge to respect referendum, renegotiate deal, and then let public have final say in ratification referendum. stitches together both parts of their coalition

Would it win more votes than it would lose?

Wait you have separate /lobbies/?

Ok so i'm probably missing something here but what reason does Theresa May have to resign?

The govt wins the vote of no confidence today, yes? and the tories can't try push her out again till December, and she really does not seem like the resigning type. odds have a 2019 exit date as most likely - but thats exit date not resignation

She will never resign.

I was daydreaming a Nu-Corbyn government saying "We will rescind Article 50, and hold a referendum at the next election, towards which we'll work on the real and perceived reasons the UK voted to leave" - but apart from the mixed emotions you might expect that to cause in the EU - the MEP elections are also on a 5-year timeframe.

face me cowards!

Ok so i'm probably missing something here but what reason does Theresa May have to resign?

The govt wins the vote of no confidence today, yes? and the tories can't try push her out again till December, and she really does not seem like the resigning type. odds have a 2019 exit date as most likely - but thats exit date not resignation

Probably the worst thing that could happen to a Corbyn government would be to squeak through in an undecisive snap election and have to deliver their own version of Brexit. It would be under attack from all angles very quickly and would take up most of their resources and prevent them from being able to implement a lot of their programme. Assuming they could get it through whatever Parliament we end up with, which is doubtful unless they win a sizeable majority and that seems unlikely.

well the reason would be suffering the largest ever defeat in democratic parliamentary history, on the central project of her government for the last two and a half years

but immediately followed by winning a vote of no-confidence? "i have been delivered a new mandate to continue"

May winning might be the best outcome for tories and labour alike?

the uh jonathan freedland pièce on the vote last night is uh good. if there is to be a referendum II - and we want continuity_remain to win - then it has be done in a context where people are not feeling ground down by years and years of austerity and secular stagnation

don’t understand how there can be a big push for it after the VONC loses. what would the question even be now? can’t be may’s deal v remain, can’t be remain vs no deal

VONC me daddy

Should have been the thread title.

May winning might be the best outcome for tories and labour alike?

How so?

Btw just because the Tories can’t 1922 May again until December doesn’t mean they can’t push her out other ways. You think she’s not getting furious frontbenchers on her case and pressure from the men in grey suits?

If her cabinet quit and no-one would take those jobs? But I don't think this is the way of the Tory.

she’s presumably the band aid that is holding back a lot of very unsightly demon spirits

If VONC till you honk is really the Lab strategy (as BazGardz intimated last night) then why would anybody think Corbz' strategy will be any different to the present (i.e. say all options are still on the table and not commit to one). Much like everyone else in parliament, until theit preferred strategy is completely ruled out (number of those to date <1) they'll not change horses.

May will undoubtedly just shake her head and explain that this makes the job all the harder, not angry but quite disappointed.

called this btw

6 hours for no confidence debate today!

Another big day in Parliament today with a full day’s debate, expected to start around 1pm on the #NoConfidenceVote tabled by @jeremycorbyn following the historic, record defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Vote at 7pm. pic.twitter.com/hgPcUoDVBE

— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) January 16, 2019

I’m kind of meh over the May keeping the worse elements out - she’s governed as though she still has a majority, shut out remainers and moderates, had that awful press conference where she was visibly angry cos Tusk mocked her on Instagram...difficult to see how even one of the worse elements would act differently.