"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

xp I’d rate you over most of the existing commentariat even if you put Mr Blobby references into everything

I think VONC will be won and a very lightly tweaked WA will pass, next most likely is No Deal and abandoning the whole thing a moderately distant third.

If the VONC is lost then fuck knows. Labour still behind in the polls and will have to decide on an actual policy which will cost them votes whichever way. SNP will lose seats, at least some of which to the Tories (hello Pete Wishart and your 21 vote majority, Mhairi Black hasn't exactly endeared herself to her hometown after the hospital saga, or Hannah Bardell's biggest constituency employer closing while Scottish Enterprise stood and watched). So we could even end up with a strengthened majority in which case see above.

If Labour win it, Tusk's words tonight suggest only No Deal or revoke would be on the table. Revoke would have the back bench and membership support but probably not the front bench - the manifesto would be the only thing that helped predict but if it's a serial set of events like we've seen to date then even that might not be clear until the EU eliminate renegotiation.

Our snap @PoliHQ poll, conducted entirely after the #brexit vote tonight, shows a near majority (49%) blame Theresa May and her cabinet for the Brexit impasse in the commons (3,426 UK adults, weighted to be representative of the 18+ population) pic.twitter.com/Z775q3Wbot

— Laurence Janta-Lipinski (@jantalipinski) January 15, 2019

I think these are great numbers if they even somewhat reflect reality.

vonc if yr horny

sorry

How can you flip 230 votes with light tweaks, though?

You can’t. The big sticking point for most of them is the backstop, and that’s pretty much non-negotiable.

The whole dummy reps EU election thing is because we will not be having an EU election unless we revoke. To have any representation we must have representatives but they will have no function - so people would have to be sent as a token but with no actions. Presumably we could send the current MEPs and pay them out of govt funds but they'd play no part in proceedings (much like at the moment, amirite? Lol!!) as all they need to do is fill a technicality to allow negotiating to happen as still theoretically a 'member'. (This was explained in depth by some Belgian EU guy on Today this morning)

"Labour still behind in the polls" are they really though? I keep seeing this being repeated but never see it reflected in the actual polls which have been seesawing 5 points either way since '17 - and let's face it they are mostly noise until there is an election.

I don't think you can flip 230 with Customs Union either.

Last one I saw was Thursday, with Labour 6% behind

who are all these tories you guys have over there, I don't think I've ever even met one

so hold on a sec, did the EU rule out at the beginning of all this the possibility of negotiating an agreement that when ratified would trigger article 50?

because in hindsight that would've been less stressful on everyone

In the aggravated version they have been pretty much deadlocked and pollsters like Yougov who reveal that most UK folks don't even use trains on the day of season ticket hikes are so non-partisan.

Customs Union has Lab support though, which (in theory) gets you (most?) of them. It’s one of the few things that could pass. And one that May is implacably opposed to.

That one was done on the 5th which is now ancient history.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 5, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 38% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-)

via @Survation, 09 - 10 Jan 2019
Chgs. w/ Nov 2018

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 11, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 36% (-1)
LAB: 36% (-2)
LDEM: 12% (-)
UKIP: 6% (+2)
GRN: 5% (+1)

via @BMGResearch, 08 - 11 Jan

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 12, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 38% (-)
CON: 35% (-3)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 6% (+1)
Grn: 4% (-1)

via @KantarPublic, 10 - 14 Jan
Chgs. w/ Dec

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) January 15, 2019

These are all from this week. But generally not worth worrying about polls too much atm.

so hold on a sec, did the EU rule out at the beginning of all this the possibility of negotiating an agreement that when ratified would trigger article 50?

It wasn’t the EU’s decision to trigger it, that was entirely on the UK.

May did not have to trigger Article 50 at any point. They could have taken ten years to devise a plan for exit. She chose to trigger it at the earliest possible moment, with no planning or consultation.

The first example of the bold and decisive leadership for which she is so widely acclaimed.

I don't think you can flip 230 with Customs Union either.

i think the "lab 6% behind" was a badly formed PV-sponsored push poll (i def saw it being roasted by ppl who understand polls, which i mostly do not)

tory vote is not going to hold up if may takes the party into an election

re: the polls - YouGov are an outlier. They consistently have figures which are higher for the Tories and lower for Labour than the other polling companies. It doesn't mean they aren't right, but they are the only ones saying that. Generally the polls show little difference between the two and neither would win a majority as things stand, though given how much things swung during the last general election campaign, just about anything could happen.

i mean if may proposed a customs union to get lab on board to pass *something* (seems unlikely but if) then lab cd probably right then peel the ERG away from supporting her in their running vonc project

The Tory vote is highly dependent on keeping the UKIP voters from 2015 onside - that’s why they have such a high floor.

Οὖτις at 11:19 15 Jan 19
who are all these tories you guys have over there, I don't think I've ever even met one

Barnsley voted overwhelmingly to leave the European Union - now many feel little progress has been made. pic.twitter.com/doopL9YA4H

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) October 20, 2017

vonc if yr horny

Changed my mind, unwelcome marriage proposal moved to plax

https://i.imgur.com/qO4KqZ4.jpg

Some pictures from the No lobby earlier:

Voting on the Prime Minister’s Deal has started. This is going to be a huge defeat for the government pic.twitter.com/Ho4t0tGlPn

— Bill Esterson (@Bill_Esterson) January 15, 2019

In the no voting lobby to vote against this deal. I’ve rarely seen it this full. May has united the Commons against her and her deal. Next step #NoConfidenceNow pic.twitter.com/uFPp9Vx2gu

— Lloyd Russell-Moyle (@lloyd_rm) January 15, 2019

The no lobby for the Government's motion... pic.twitter.com/dc6IMzGpHv

— Debbie Abrahams MP (@Debbie_abrahams) January 15, 2019

Wait you have separate lobbies?

"who are all these tories you guys have over there, I don't think I've ever even met one"

lolMericans!

they go into a yes room and a no room, it's very modern and legal

You think *that* is the weird thing about parliament?

vonc Tories? No secret.

xp they have to physically go through one of two passages and have their name taken by a teller to vote

And then kiss the Parliamentary hobgoblin

I honestly find that funnier than the mace

who are all these tories you guys have over there, I don't think I've ever even met one

where would you have, though

None of this to be read as acting superior mind you; I’m from the country where the entire legislative and executive branch have to agree on spending money every six weeks or everything shuts down

If only we could change the oath and thereby get SF to take their seats. That’s what this season needs

Never going to happen. What this season needs is a shock twist though...

yeah sf are never taking seats in the british parliament.

Most British thing ever:
Trying to get a celebration pop-up rave going after the #BrexitVote, next to the freaking Parliament. https://t.co/B7Qfn5aqzc

— Nils Herber (@NilsHerber) January 15, 2019

i shouldn't really mock their reasons for not doing so either tbh

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/06/sinn-fein-mp-british-parliament-irish-republicans-brexit

If only we could change the oath and thereby get SF to take their seats. That’s what this season needs

― stet, Tuesday, 15 January 2019 23:54 (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

oh havent our govt over here been quick to remind them of it too

I government shut down would probably be a blessing in these circs

actual lobbies are you fuckin kidding me how the fuck do you let these ppl run anything but gauntlets

parliament probably cranky from having to get up and mill around pointlessly for every vote

who are all these tories I don’t think I’ve met one

have you met one (1) democrat

I don’t see labour supporting a second ref until they do. it’ll be VONC me daddy from hereon out until the GE. political pressure on corbyn to support refII will be high tho

they will likely include one in their next GE manifesto - it would win votes def. likely strategy: pledge to respect referendum, renegotiate deal, and then let public have final say in ratification referendum. stitches together both parts of their coalition